06-19-2017, 11:09 PM
Polls of states not yet polled (Trump is in trouble in both of those) and West Virginia, which has been polled. They are for an advocacy group, and they suggest that
(1) AHCA (largely a repudiation of Obamacare) is a political disaster even if it passes,
(2) Almost any Republican Senator who votes for it could be dead meat in the 2018 or 2020 election,
(3) Dean Heller will be the equivalent in 2018 of Blanche Lincoln in 2010 seemingly no matter what he does, and
(4) Alaska looks like a tossup in 2020 for Donald Trump should he run for re-election... possibly voting the second time ever for the Democratic nominee for President.
Trump underwater in Alaska:
Alaska -
Trump's approval - 44/48 (-4)
Lisa Murkowski - 35/43 (-8)
Trumpcare - 29/53 (-24)
Voting intention of Murkowski to Generic D - 39/31 (+8)
If Murkowski votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 22/49 (-27)
Nevada -
Trump's approval - 44/50 (-6)
Dean Heller - 31/44 (-13)
Trumpcare - 31/51 (-20)
Voting intention of Heller to Generic D - 39/46 (-7)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 27/45 (-18)
West Virginia -
Trump's approval - 55/36 (+19)
Shelly Capito - 42/33(+9)
Trumpcare - 35/41 (-6)
Voting intention of Shelly Capito to Generic D - 48/35 (+13)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 29/36 (-7)
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf
https://www.scribd.com/document/35170344...s-06-14-17
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf[/quote][/quote]
....................
First polls of any kind of Alaska and Nevada, apparently by an advocacy group -- but I understand that these polls were taken by PPP. Yes, I know that Alaska is a tough state to poll from outside the state because few pollsters can have such options as "Press '3' for Aleut" or "Press '4' for Inuit".
I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona, Massachusetts and Oklahoma
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;;3&AZ=1;F;7&AR=2;;7&CA=1;;9&CO=1;;2&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;3&GA=0;;5&HI=1;;9&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;;5&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;9&MA=1;F;9&MI=1;;9&MN=1;;5&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=2;;5&NV=1;;3&NH=1;;9&NJ=1;;9&NM=0;;4&NY=1;;9&NC=1;;5&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=2;F;9&OR=0;;5&PA=1;;7&RI=0;;6&SC=1;;4&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;7&TX=1;;5&UT=1;;3&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;7&WA=1;;5&WV=2;;7&WI=1;;7&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
(1) AHCA (largely a repudiation of Obamacare) is a political disaster even if it passes,
(2) Almost any Republican Senator who votes for it could be dead meat in the 2018 or 2020 election,
(3) Dean Heller will be the equivalent in 2018 of Blanche Lincoln in 2010 seemingly no matter what he does, and
(4) Alaska looks like a tossup in 2020 for Donald Trump should he run for re-election... possibly voting the second time ever for the Democratic nominee for President.
Trump underwater in Alaska:
Alaska -
Trump's approval - 44/48 (-4)
Lisa Murkowski - 35/43 (-8)
Trumpcare - 29/53 (-24)
Voting intention of Murkowski to Generic D - 39/31 (+8)
If Murkowski votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 22/49 (-27)
Nevada -
Trump's approval - 44/50 (-6)
Dean Heller - 31/44 (-13)
Trumpcare - 31/51 (-20)
Voting intention of Heller to Generic D - 39/46 (-7)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 27/45 (-18)
West Virginia -
Trump's approval - 55/36 (+19)
Shelly Capito - 42/33(+9)
Trumpcare - 35/41 (-6)
Voting intention of Shelly Capito to Generic D - 48/35 (+13)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 29/36 (-7)
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf
https://www.scribd.com/document/35170344...s-06-14-17
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/upl...esults.pdf[/quote][/quote]
....................
First polls of any kind of Alaska and Nevada, apparently by an advocacy group -- but I understand that these polls were taken by PPP. Yes, I know that Alaska is a tough state to poll from outside the state because few pollsters can have such options as "Press '3' for Aleut" or "Press '4' for Inuit".
I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona, Massachusetts and Oklahoma
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.