06-21-2017, 09:48 PM
*** 22-Jun-17 World View -- Selection of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman portends further Mideast instability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Selection of new Saudi crown prince portends rapid changes in Mideast
****
![[Image: g170621b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170621b.jpg)
Saudi Arabia's new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
We've seen rapid changes in the Mideast, especially since the "Arab
spring" that began in 2011, bringing younger generations of Arabs into
power to replace long-time dictators, and convulsing one country after
another to the effect that it seems that the region becomes more and
more unstable every day. There's no other way to cast the the latest
change in the government of Saudi Arabia.
Previous royal successions have clearly focused on stability. Saudi
Arabia's 90-year-old King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud died in
January 2015, the Saudis followed tradition and appointed as a new
king his "young" half-brother, the 79-year-old Salman bin Abdulaziz
al-Saud.
King Salman appointed his own successor, his nephew Mohammed bin
Nayef, 57 years old, who became the "Crown Prince," meaning that he
would become king if Salman died.
Wednesday's announcement breaks tradition. Salman has dumped his
57-year-old nephew Mohammed bin Nayef, and selected a new Crown
Prince, his own 31 year old son, Mohammed bin Salman. In order to
make this choice, Salman has arranged to amend the Basic Law of
Government to say:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Rule passes to the sons of the founding King, Abd
> al-Aziz Bin Abd al-Rahman al-Faysal Al Saud, and to their
> children's children. The most upright among them is to receive
> allegiance in accordance with the principles of the Holy Quran and
> the Tradition of the Venerable Prophet."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Traditionally, the line of succession in Saudi Arabia has passed from
brother to brother. The phrase "children's children" is the change
that permits Mohammed bin Salman to be selected, replacing brother to
brother succession with father to son succession.
Mohammed bin Salman has already had a meteoric rise in Saudi politics,
as the world's youngest defense minister. According to some reports,
he has already been the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, as his
father has been ailing.
Mohammed bin Salman is generally already very popular in Saudi Arabia,
where the average age is 27, as he's promised to reform some of the
strict Sharia laws that govern social life. Under his direction,
Saudi Arabia has already set up a series of activities that are
popular in the west, including comedy shows and monster truck
competitions. He's unveiled a wide-ranging plan to bring social and
economic change to the kingdom, and he's already travelled to Beijing,
Moscow and Washington, where he met President Donald Trump in March.
Al Arabiya and CNN and BBC
****
**** Mohammed bin Salman expected to follow a belligerent foreign policy
****
Saudi Arabia has for decades had a very conservative foreign policy,
maintaining alliances with Americans, Europeans, Chinese and Russians,
and serving as leader and mediator of the Gulf Cooperation Council of
Arab states. That appears to be undergoing drastic change now.
As Saudi Minister of Defense, the young, energetic Mohammed bin Salman
already has a record that indicates a far more belligerent and
nationalistic foreign policy than the country has had in the past.
This is what would be expected for a country in a generational Crisis
era, after a succession to a younger generation.
Mohammed bin Salman is chief architect of the Saudi war against the
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, beginning in March 2015. This war
has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Promises of a quick victory
have dissolved into more and more bloody warfare. The war has not
resulted in anything approaching victory, but has created a major
humanitarian crisis, with 14.1 million people having little or no
access to food.
Now that he's become Crown Prince, he's going to be under pressure to
bring the war to a successful conclusion. In a generational Crisis
era, a time of high nationalism, that is not going to be done by
compromise, even if there were some inclination to do so. It's likely
that under Mohammed bin Salman, there will be a sharp escalation in
the Yemen war.
That brings us to the subject of Iran. Mohammed bin Salman is
believed to be a leader of the air, sea and land blockade
of Qatar, with Qatar's trade and diplomatic relations with Iran
being one of the reasons given. According to Sanam Vakil analyst
from Chatham House:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mohammed bin Salman already a few weeks back was the
> one who effectively shut the door to rapprochement between Saudi
> Arabia or the smaller GCC alliance and Iran.
>
> It seems that the crown prince has a very ambitious regional
> agenda, moving away from the longstanding Saudi policy of being
> much more quietist and working behind the scenes. This new prince
> has taken on a much more assertive regional role."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The implications are that Mohammed bin Salman has to win the
war in Yemen, and that the split with Qatar will not be resolved
for a very long time.
Mohammed bin Salman's rise also has implications for the war in Syria.
He will not be likely to continue to tolerate Iran's aggressive
actions in Syria. So far, the Saudis have avoided using ground troops
in either the Yemen or the Syria war, but the new Crown Prince may
feel obligation to counter Iran's influence by sending ground troops
into one or both of these warring countries. RFI and Middle East Eye and Newsweek
Related Articles
****
**** Iran's ballistic missile launch on Syria said to be a flop
****
As we reported
Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that on Sunday it launched seven
medium-range ballistic missiles (Zolfaghar ballistic missiles) from
western Iran to at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in Syria, after
flying over Iraq.
According to Israeli sources, the missile strike was a flop.
According to Israeli media, three of the seven missiles fell to earth
in Iraq, and three of the others missed their targets by hundreds of
yards. Only one of the seven missiles reached its intended target.
According to an Israeli analyst:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the Iranians were trying to show their
> capabilities and to signal to Israel and to the Americans that
> these missiles are operational, the result was rather different.
> It was a flop, a failure. Still, it photographed
> well."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The IRGC said that all seven missiles reached their targets, and that
130 terrorists were killed. Times of Israel
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, Mohammed bin Nayef,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sanam Vakil,
Iran, Zolfaghar ballistic missiles, Iraq, Syria,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Selection of new Saudi crown prince portends rapid changes in Mideast
- Mohammed bin Salman expected to follow a belligerent foreign policy
- Iran's ballistic missile launch on Syria said to be a flop
****
**** Selection of new Saudi crown prince portends rapid changes in Mideast
****
Saudi Arabia's new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
We've seen rapid changes in the Mideast, especially since the "Arab
spring" that began in 2011, bringing younger generations of Arabs into
power to replace long-time dictators, and convulsing one country after
another to the effect that it seems that the region becomes more and
more unstable every day. There's no other way to cast the the latest
change in the government of Saudi Arabia.
Previous royal successions have clearly focused on stability. Saudi
Arabia's 90-year-old King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud died in
January 2015, the Saudis followed tradition and appointed as a new
king his "young" half-brother, the 79-year-old Salman bin Abdulaziz
al-Saud.
King Salman appointed his own successor, his nephew Mohammed bin
Nayef, 57 years old, who became the "Crown Prince," meaning that he
would become king if Salman died.
Wednesday's announcement breaks tradition. Salman has dumped his
57-year-old nephew Mohammed bin Nayef, and selected a new Crown
Prince, his own 31 year old son, Mohammed bin Salman. In order to
make this choice, Salman has arranged to amend the Basic Law of
Government to say:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Rule passes to the sons of the founding King, Abd
> al-Aziz Bin Abd al-Rahman al-Faysal Al Saud, and to their
> children's children. The most upright among them is to receive
> allegiance in accordance with the principles of the Holy Quran and
> the Tradition of the Venerable Prophet."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Traditionally, the line of succession in Saudi Arabia has passed from
brother to brother. The phrase "children's children" is the change
that permits Mohammed bin Salman to be selected, replacing brother to
brother succession with father to son succession.
Mohammed bin Salman has already had a meteoric rise in Saudi politics,
as the world's youngest defense minister. According to some reports,
he has already been the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, as his
father has been ailing.
Mohammed bin Salman is generally already very popular in Saudi Arabia,
where the average age is 27, as he's promised to reform some of the
strict Sharia laws that govern social life. Under his direction,
Saudi Arabia has already set up a series of activities that are
popular in the west, including comedy shows and monster truck
competitions. He's unveiled a wide-ranging plan to bring social and
economic change to the kingdom, and he's already travelled to Beijing,
Moscow and Washington, where he met President Donald Trump in March.
Al Arabiya and CNN and BBC
****
**** Mohammed bin Salman expected to follow a belligerent foreign policy
****
Saudi Arabia has for decades had a very conservative foreign policy,
maintaining alliances with Americans, Europeans, Chinese and Russians,
and serving as leader and mediator of the Gulf Cooperation Council of
Arab states. That appears to be undergoing drastic change now.
As Saudi Minister of Defense, the young, energetic Mohammed bin Salman
already has a record that indicates a far more belligerent and
nationalistic foreign policy than the country has had in the past.
This is what would be expected for a country in a generational Crisis
era, after a succession to a younger generation.
Mohammed bin Salman is chief architect of the Saudi war against the
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, beginning in March 2015. This war
has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Promises of a quick victory
have dissolved into more and more bloody warfare. The war has not
resulted in anything approaching victory, but has created a major
humanitarian crisis, with 14.1 million people having little or no
access to food.
Now that he's become Crown Prince, he's going to be under pressure to
bring the war to a successful conclusion. In a generational Crisis
era, a time of high nationalism, that is not going to be done by
compromise, even if there were some inclination to do so. It's likely
that under Mohammed bin Salman, there will be a sharp escalation in
the Yemen war.
That brings us to the subject of Iran. Mohammed bin Salman is
believed to be a leader of the air, sea and land blockade
of Qatar, with Qatar's trade and diplomatic relations with Iran
being one of the reasons given. According to Sanam Vakil analyst
from Chatham House:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mohammed bin Salman already a few weeks back was the
> one who effectively shut the door to rapprochement between Saudi
> Arabia or the smaller GCC alliance and Iran.
>
> It seems that the crown prince has a very ambitious regional
> agenda, moving away from the longstanding Saudi policy of being
> much more quietist and working behind the scenes. This new prince
> has taken on a much more assertive regional role."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The implications are that Mohammed bin Salman has to win the
war in Yemen, and that the split with Qatar will not be resolved
for a very long time.
Mohammed bin Salman's rise also has implications for the war in Syria.
He will not be likely to continue to tolerate Iran's aggressive
actions in Syria. So far, the Saudis have avoided using ground troops
in either the Yemen or the Syria war, but the new Crown Prince may
feel obligation to counter Iran's influence by sending ground troops
into one or both of these warring countries. RFI and Middle East Eye and Newsweek
Related Articles
- Death of Saudi's King Abdullah raises concerns about policy changes (24-Jan-2015)
- In major Yemen war escalation, Qatar is deploying 1,000 ground troops (08-Sep-2015)
- UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' (17-Jun-2016)
****
**** Iran's ballistic missile launch on Syria said to be a flop
****
As we reported
Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that on Sunday it launched seven
medium-range ballistic missiles (Zolfaghar ballistic missiles) from
western Iran to at ISIS targets in Deir az-Zour in Syria, after
flying over Iraq.
According to Israeli sources, the missile strike was a flop.
According to Israeli media, three of the seven missiles fell to earth
in Iraq, and three of the others missed their targets by hundreds of
yards. Only one of the seven missiles reached its intended target.
According to an Israeli analyst:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the Iranians were trying to show their
> capabilities and to signal to Israel and to the Americans that
> these missiles are operational, the result was rather different.
> It was a flop, a failure. Still, it photographed
> well."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The IRGC said that all seven missiles reached their targets, and that
130 terrorists were killed. Times of Israel
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman,
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, Mohammed bin Nayef,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sanam Vakil,
Iran, Zolfaghar ballistic missiles, Iraq, Syria,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
