06-25-2017, 10:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2017, 07:21 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 26-Jun-17 World View -- Hezbollah's Nasrallah makes delusional speech about 'foreign fighters' attacking Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hezbollah's Nasrallah makes delusional speech about 'foreign fighters' attacking Israel
****
![[Image: g170625b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170625b.jpg)
Undated image of meeting between Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and a Qatari official (al-Arabiya)
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran's puppet terror
organization, the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, said in a televised
speech on Friday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Israeli enemy should know that if it launches an
> attack on Syria or Lebanon, it’s unknown whether the fighting will
> stay just between Lebanon and Israel, or Syria and Israel.
>
> I’m not saying countries would intervene directly — but it would
> open the door for hundreds of thousands of fighters from all
> around the Arab and Islamic world to participate in this fight —
> from Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Although Nasrallah's speech was nominally about liberating Jerusalem
from Israel, it was clear from many of his remarks that it was really
about Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries. He accused the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia of funding the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), and he accused Turkey of facilitating its operations.
Nasrallah was also harshly critical of Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and the
fight against Iran-backed Shia Houthis:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Despite all challenges of airstrikes, blockade,
> cholera, poverty and destruction, tens of thousands took to
> streets to voice solidarity with Palestine and Al-Quds
> [Jerusalem].
>
> Yemen proved that it will never be part of a scheme to sell
> Palestine, neither for a throne, nor for Trump and it is still
> fighting."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Nasrallah further made clear that he was talking about Shia fighters
from Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, when he referred to
Saudi Arabia and said "Al-Quds [Jerusalem] is too sacred to be
liberated by traitors and hypocrites."
Nasrallah also referred to Imam Moussa al-Sadr, a highly revered Shia
cleric, the leader of Lebanon's Shia Muslims, who said, "The honor of
Al-Quds [Jerusalem] refuses to accept any liberation unless it is at
the hands of true believers." Al-Sadr vanished in 1978 during a visit
to Libya, and his disappearance has been a continuing mystery.
So analysts are interpreting Nasrallah's remarks as saying that an
alliance of tens or hundreds of thousands of Shia Muslims from Iraq,
Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries, will
spontaneously come to Lebanon to join Hezbollah in a war against
Israel. This is about as delusional as you can get.
Supposedly, Nasrallah is thinking for example of the Shia Hazara
ethnic group in Pakistan, some of whose fighters came to Syria to
defend Syria's president Bashar al-Assad from the Sunni militias he
was fighting. However, those were mercenaries, paid by Iran, with no
personal interest in fighting either for or against al-Assad. In a
general Mideast war, the Hazaras would have their hands full fighting
the Taliban, and would not be rushing off the Lebanon to fight Israel.
So Nasrallah's speech, which seemed to be threatening Israel with
hundreds of thousands of fighters from Islamic countries near and far,
was actually an extremely bitter and vitriolic sectarian speech on the
Sunni - Shia fault line, and the Saudi Arabia - Iran fault line.
This is not to suggest that there isn't a war coming between Hezbollah
and Israel. There certainly is a war coming, and it will probably
kill millions of Israelis and Palestinians, and leave the region
soaked in blood. What I'm focusing on here is Nasrallah's boast about
hundreds of thousands of Islamic fighters.
The last war between the two occurred in 2006, and was a disaster for
both sides, killing a lot of people, destroying Lebanon's
infrastructure, but accomplishing absolutely nothing for either side.
Nasrallah's remarks about hundreds of thousands of Islamic fighters
was an allusion to the 2006 war, sending Israel a threat that the next
war will be a lot worse for Israel than the last one.
Major Gen. Amir Eshel, the head of Israel's air force, specifically
referred to the 2006 war last week when he said that Israel would have
"unimaginable" military power in hand in any future conflict with
Hezbollah:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What the air force was able to do quantitatively in
> the [2006] Lebanon war over the course of 34 days we can do today
> in 48-60 hours.
>
> This is potential power unimaginable in its scope, much different
> to what we have seen in the past and far greater than people
> estimate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah) and Reuters and TeleSur TV (Caracas) and Times of Israel
Related Articles
****
**** Saudis report close relationships between Hezbollah and Qatar
****
The second of the 13 demands that Saudi Arabia is making of Qatar is
to "Sever all ties to “terrorist organizations,” specifically the
Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, al-Qaida, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally
declare those entities as terrorist groups."
Hezbollah is a puppet organization of Iran, which is a bitter enemy of
Saudi Arabia. The two countries no longer have diplomatic relations,
after protesters in Tehran burned down the Saudi embassy
in January of last year. So Saudi Arabia is
undoubtedly quite serious in demanding that Qatar end its relations
with Hezbollah as a condition for ending the land, sea and air
blockade that Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and
Bahrain imposed on Qatar earlier this month.
A Saudi analysis claims that Qatar and Hezbollah have had very close
relations with Hezbollah at least since 2008, when there was an
agreement that Syria, Iran and Hezbollah would become a regional axis
with Qatar's participation. When Syria's civil war began in 2011, and
Bashar al-Assad began massacring peaceful anti-government Sunni
protestors, including hundreds of innocent women and children in
Palestinian refugee camps, there was a rift between Qatar and
Hezbollah, according to the report. But that rift was healed, and by
November 2013, Hezbollah and Qatar met, and Qatar promised generous
funding for Bashar al-Assad, who was facing huge financial
difficulties.
Now there are new reports that Hezbollah fighters are joining Iranian
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and Turkish forces in Qatar to
protect Qatar's royal family. According to one Saudi analyst, "Qatar
is playing with fire. It’s acting as an organization and not as a
state." Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Breitbart Jerusalem
Related Articles
****
**** How to do a generational analysis of the Mideast
****
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.
With the large number of ethnic groups and religious splinter groups
in the Mideast, it's not easy to predict exactly who will be fighting
whom in the approaching Mideast regional war. This question can be
answered with appropriate generational research and analysis. As I've
previously said, I certainly don't have anything like the resources to
perform such an analysis by myself, but any college student interested
in this kind of analysis could make an invaluable contribution to
understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a
thesis topic, a generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups
in the Mideast.
A couple of people have asked me how such an analysis would be done,
and have asked me to provide additional information.
Generational analyses of historical events -- wars, political
upheavals, coups, etc. -- all work pretty much the same way.
I always recommend finding 15-20 sources describing the event from
different points of view. These days, the wealth of historical
information on the internet has made this much easier.
Some of the 15-20 sources should be written around the time that the
event took place, so that the analysis will be less influenced by
ideological filters of historians who describe it later. Google Books
has turned out to be a really valuable resource, because many of the
historical texts you're looking for are available, and are out of
copyright, so you can read them without paying for them.
Just to take a couple of examples, I was doing an analysis of the
American civil war, and I found several books that were written in the
early 1860s, just as the war was beginning. These kinds of sources
are extremely valuable in understanding what was going on at the time.
In fact, for doing a generational analysis, these kinds of sources are
actually more valuable than histories written much later, since the
best generational analyses convey the precise thoughts and behaviors
of the people of the time -- their nationalism, their xenophobia,
their statements, their actions.
As another example, last year I decided that I might write a book on
the history Islam in India, from the 600s in the Mideast through the
middle ages in India, to the present. I spent a couple of months
collecting, reading, and summarizing a lot of stuff, including about a
few dozen full length books and documents in English dating back to
the 1800s, all the way back to the 600s. Alas, other things came up,
and I had to drop the book-writing project. But the more I got into
it, the more fascinating it became, and perhaps someday I'll get back
to it, if I live long enough.
So when you're doing a generational analysis, it's necessary to
collect as many sources as possible, with older sources closer to the
event being more valuable than recent sources.
Once you read all the sources related to the event, then you have to
figure out what was going on. Was the event a crisis war with a
genocidal climax? Or was it an Awakening era confrontation, around 20
years after the climax of the last crisis war, characterized by a
"generation gap" and large student riots and demonstrations? Or was
it a "velvet coup," an Awakening era climax?
Once you've done that analysis for one event, you have do the same
thing for other events for the same society, tribe or nation, in order
to develop a generational timeline lasting for as many generations as
possible.
Any event has to be analyzed from the point of view of each
participant. It's not unusual to read two accounts of the same war by
opposing sides, and get the impression that they're talking about two
different wars. The same principle is true of major political events,
such as bloody riots or coups.
Now, in the case of the Mideast, this job would have to be done for
each of the tribes in the Mideast. This would be a lot of work
anyway, but the problem is compounded by the fact that a lot of the
historical information is only available in such languages are Arabic,
Farsi or Urdu. That's why I said that I don't have the resources to
do this job, and that it would require having something like a college
department back them up.
The current situation between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar is an
example. About half an hour ago I saw a "Mideast expert" on
television, and he was asked how the Qatar blockade was going to end.
He answered that "Saudi Arabia is going to have egg on its face."
This is what we get from these "experts." These Washington experts
are complete idiots, as I've been seeing for many years now.
Still, I don't have an answer to the question of what the core issues
are in the Saudi-Qatar split. Every analysis I've read is extremely
shallow, usually no deeper than the "egg on its face" explanation, or
something fatuous about Trump. I like to joke that, for these people,
history always begins this morning.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear that it's
going to be necessary to analyze generational timelines for all the
ethnic and religious groups in the region going back at least two
centuries, and possibly farther. Perhaps some college department can
take this on as a thesis topic, because I don't have the resources to
answer this question. I'll be happy to help if anyone is interested.
I've done a little work in analyzing Mideast generational timelines,
but I've barely scratched the surface. Below is a list of articles
that I've written in the past that contain brief generational analyses
of the Sunni-Shia issue.
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah, Lebanon,
Iran, Israel, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen, Houthis,
Al-Quds, Jerusalem, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Imam Moussa al-Sadr, Amir Eshel, Qatar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hezbollah's Nasrallah makes delusional speech about 'foreign fighters' attacking Israel
- Saudis report close relationships between Hezbollah and Qatar
- How to do a generational analysis of the Mideast
****
**** Hezbollah's Nasrallah makes delusional speech about 'foreign fighters' attacking Israel
****
Undated image of meeting between Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and a Qatari official (al-Arabiya)
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Iran's puppet terror
organization, the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, said in a televised
speech on Friday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Israeli enemy should know that if it launches an
> attack on Syria or Lebanon, it’s unknown whether the fighting will
> stay just between Lebanon and Israel, or Syria and Israel.
>
> I’m not saying countries would intervene directly — but it would
> open the door for hundreds of thousands of fighters from all
> around the Arab and Islamic world to participate in this fight —
> from Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Although Nasrallah's speech was nominally about liberating Jerusalem
from Israel, it was clear from many of his remarks that it was really
about Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries. He accused the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia of funding the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh), and he accused Turkey of facilitating its operations.
Nasrallah was also harshly critical of Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and the
fight against Iran-backed Shia Houthis:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Despite all challenges of airstrikes, blockade,
> cholera, poverty and destruction, tens of thousands took to
> streets to voice solidarity with Palestine and Al-Quds
> [Jerusalem].
>
> Yemen proved that it will never be part of a scheme to sell
> Palestine, neither for a throne, nor for Trump and it is still
> fighting."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Nasrallah further made clear that he was talking about Shia fighters
from Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, when he referred to
Saudi Arabia and said "Al-Quds [Jerusalem] is too sacred to be
liberated by traitors and hypocrites."
Nasrallah also referred to Imam Moussa al-Sadr, a highly revered Shia
cleric, the leader of Lebanon's Shia Muslims, who said, "The honor of
Al-Quds [Jerusalem] refuses to accept any liberation unless it is at
the hands of true believers." Al-Sadr vanished in 1978 during a visit
to Libya, and his disappearance has been a continuing mystery.
So analysts are interpreting Nasrallah's remarks as saying that an
alliance of tens or hundreds of thousands of Shia Muslims from Iraq,
Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries, will
spontaneously come to Lebanon to join Hezbollah in a war against
Israel. This is about as delusional as you can get.
Supposedly, Nasrallah is thinking for example of the Shia Hazara
ethnic group in Pakistan, some of whose fighters came to Syria to
defend Syria's president Bashar al-Assad from the Sunni militias he
was fighting. However, those were mercenaries, paid by Iran, with no
personal interest in fighting either for or against al-Assad. In a
general Mideast war, the Hazaras would have their hands full fighting
the Taliban, and would not be rushing off the Lebanon to fight Israel.
So Nasrallah's speech, which seemed to be threatening Israel with
hundreds of thousands of fighters from Islamic countries near and far,
was actually an extremely bitter and vitriolic sectarian speech on the
Sunni - Shia fault line, and the Saudi Arabia - Iran fault line.
This is not to suggest that there isn't a war coming between Hezbollah
and Israel. There certainly is a war coming, and it will probably
kill millions of Israelis and Palestinians, and leave the region
soaked in blood. What I'm focusing on here is Nasrallah's boast about
hundreds of thousands of Islamic fighters.
The last war between the two occurred in 2006, and was a disaster for
both sides, killing a lot of people, destroying Lebanon's
infrastructure, but accomplishing absolutely nothing for either side.
Nasrallah's remarks about hundreds of thousands of Islamic fighters
was an allusion to the 2006 war, sending Israel a threat that the next
war will be a lot worse for Israel than the last one.
Major Gen. Amir Eshel, the head of Israel's air force, specifically
referred to the 2006 war last week when he said that Israel would have
"unimaginable" military power in hand in any future conflict with
Hezbollah:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What the air force was able to do quantitatively in
> the [2006] Lebanon war over the course of 34 days we can do today
> in 48-60 hours.
>
> This is potential power unimaginable in its scope, much different
> to what we have seen in the past and far greater than people
> estimate."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah) and Reuters and TeleSur TV (Caracas) and Times of Israel
Related Articles
- Lebanon's Hezbollah leads the fight in Syria battle (26-May-2013)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- Israel preparing for 'very violent' war with Hezbollah (07-Sep-2014)
****
**** Saudis report close relationships between Hezbollah and Qatar
****
The second of the 13 demands that Saudi Arabia is making of Qatar is
to "Sever all ties to “terrorist organizations,” specifically the
Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, al-Qaida, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally
declare those entities as terrorist groups."
Hezbollah is a puppet organization of Iran, which is a bitter enemy of
Saudi Arabia. The two countries no longer have diplomatic relations,
after protesters in Tehran burned down the Saudi embassy
in January of last year. So Saudi Arabia is
undoubtedly quite serious in demanding that Qatar end its relations
with Hezbollah as a condition for ending the land, sea and air
blockade that Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and
Bahrain imposed on Qatar earlier this month.
A Saudi analysis claims that Qatar and Hezbollah have had very close
relations with Hezbollah at least since 2008, when there was an
agreement that Syria, Iran and Hezbollah would become a regional axis
with Qatar's participation. When Syria's civil war began in 2011, and
Bashar al-Assad began massacring peaceful anti-government Sunni
protestors, including hundreds of innocent women and children in
Palestinian refugee camps, there was a rift between Qatar and
Hezbollah, according to the report. But that rift was healed, and by
November 2013, Hezbollah and Qatar met, and Qatar promised generous
funding for Bashar al-Assad, who was facing huge financial
difficulties.
Now there are new reports that Hezbollah fighters are joining Iranian
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and Turkish forces in Qatar to
protect Qatar's royal family. According to one Saudi analyst, "Qatar
is playing with fire. It’s acting as an organization and not as a
state." Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Breitbart Jerusalem
Related Articles
- Saudi Arabia, UAE leak 13 demands to end Qatar crisis (25-Jun-2017)
- Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon (13-Jun-2017)
- Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran (06-Mar-2014)
- Egypt inflames tensions with Qatar with al-Jazeera reporter verdicts (30-Aug-2015)
****
**** How to do a generational analysis of the Mideast
****
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.
With the large number of ethnic groups and religious splinter groups
in the Mideast, it's not easy to predict exactly who will be fighting
whom in the approaching Mideast regional war. This question can be
answered with appropriate generational research and analysis. As I've
previously said, I certainly don't have anything like the resources to
perform such an analysis by myself, but any college student interested
in this kind of analysis could make an invaluable contribution to
understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a
thesis topic, a generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups
in the Mideast.
A couple of people have asked me how such an analysis would be done,
and have asked me to provide additional information.
Generational analyses of historical events -- wars, political
upheavals, coups, etc. -- all work pretty much the same way.
I always recommend finding 15-20 sources describing the event from
different points of view. These days, the wealth of historical
information on the internet has made this much easier.
Some of the 15-20 sources should be written around the time that the
event took place, so that the analysis will be less influenced by
ideological filters of historians who describe it later. Google Books
has turned out to be a really valuable resource, because many of the
historical texts you're looking for are available, and are out of
copyright, so you can read them without paying for them.
Just to take a couple of examples, I was doing an analysis of the
American civil war, and I found several books that were written in the
early 1860s, just as the war was beginning. These kinds of sources
are extremely valuable in understanding what was going on at the time.
In fact, for doing a generational analysis, these kinds of sources are
actually more valuable than histories written much later, since the
best generational analyses convey the precise thoughts and behaviors
of the people of the time -- their nationalism, their xenophobia,
their statements, their actions.
As another example, last year I decided that I might write a book on
the history Islam in India, from the 600s in the Mideast through the
middle ages in India, to the present. I spent a couple of months
collecting, reading, and summarizing a lot of stuff, including about a
few dozen full length books and documents in English dating back to
the 1800s, all the way back to the 600s. Alas, other things came up,
and I had to drop the book-writing project. But the more I got into
it, the more fascinating it became, and perhaps someday I'll get back
to it, if I live long enough.
So when you're doing a generational analysis, it's necessary to
collect as many sources as possible, with older sources closer to the
event being more valuable than recent sources.
Once you read all the sources related to the event, then you have to
figure out what was going on. Was the event a crisis war with a
genocidal climax? Or was it an Awakening era confrontation, around 20
years after the climax of the last crisis war, characterized by a
"generation gap" and large student riots and demonstrations? Or was
it a "velvet coup," an Awakening era climax?
Once you've done that analysis for one event, you have do the same
thing for other events for the same society, tribe or nation, in order
to develop a generational timeline lasting for as many generations as
possible.
Any event has to be analyzed from the point of view of each
participant. It's not unusual to read two accounts of the same war by
opposing sides, and get the impression that they're talking about two
different wars. The same principle is true of major political events,
such as bloody riots or coups.
Now, in the case of the Mideast, this job would have to be done for
each of the tribes in the Mideast. This would be a lot of work
anyway, but the problem is compounded by the fact that a lot of the
historical information is only available in such languages are Arabic,
Farsi or Urdu. That's why I said that I don't have the resources to
do this job, and that it would require having something like a college
department back them up.
The current situation between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar is an
example. About half an hour ago I saw a "Mideast expert" on
television, and he was asked how the Qatar blockade was going to end.
He answered that "Saudi Arabia is going to have egg on its face."
This is what we get from these "experts." These Washington experts
are complete idiots, as I've been seeing for many years now.
Still, I don't have an answer to the question of what the core issues
are in the Saudi-Qatar split. Every analysis I've read is extremely
shallow, usually no deeper than the "egg on its face" explanation, or
something fatuous about Trump. I like to joke that, for these people,
history always begins this morning.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear that it's
going to be necessary to analyze generational timelines for all the
ethnic and religious groups in the region going back at least two
centuries, and possibly farther. Perhaps some college department can
take this on as a thesis topic, because I don't have the resources to
answer this question. I'll be happy to help if anyone is interested.
I've done a little work in analyzing Mideast generational timelines,
but I've barely scratched the surface. Below is a list of articles
that I've written in the past that contain brief generational analyses
of the Sunni-Shia issue.
Related Articles
- Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque, site of huge construction accident, has links to 9/11 (12-Sep-2015)
- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah' (27-Sep-2015)
- Mideast trends: Sunni-Shia countries align along predicted lines (16-Jan-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah, Lebanon,
Iran, Israel, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Yemen, Houthis,
Al-Quds, Jerusalem, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Imam Moussa al-Sadr, Amir Eshel, Qatar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
