06-29-2017, 04:13 PM
ARG poll: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll
New Hampshire:
Approve 25%
Disapprove 60%
For registered voters, it's 27/60. Party breakdown:
R 59/27
D 10/83
Undeclared 13/70
This may be an exaggeration, but it is a big warning.
1. New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state. It has been close in 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. It was close to the national average in 2008, if that counts for anything, and it wasn't a runaway for Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996. It was the closest loss for Donald Trump in 2016. It may have gone Democratic six of the last seven times, but it usually provides some electoral interest on Election Night.
2. Look at how lukewarm support for Donald Trump is from New Hampshire Republicans. 59%? That's the sort of support that Governor Corbett (R-PA) got in from Pennsylvania Republicans 2010 when he was enmeshed in the scandal involving the football program at Penn State. One usually needs about 80% support within one's own Party to have a chance of winning.
3. The last time that New Hampshire was a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President was 1964, when LBJ got over 63% of the vote against the messed-up campaign of Barry Goldwater.
4. This corroborates another poll in which Donald Trump had abysmal support in New Hampshire. The only electoral votes that I can now imagine the President winning in 2020 to the north and east of the Potomac is the single electoral vote of the Second Congressional District of Maine -- for which I simply have no data.
New Hampshire:
Approve 25%
Disapprove 60%
For registered voters, it's 27/60. Party breakdown:
R 59/27
D 10/83
Undeclared 13/70
This may be an exaggeration, but it is a big warning.
1. New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state. It has been close in 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. It was close to the national average in 2008, if that counts for anything, and it wasn't a runaway for Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996. It was the closest loss for Donald Trump in 2016. It may have gone Democratic six of the last seven times, but it usually provides some electoral interest on Election Night.
2. Look at how lukewarm support for Donald Trump is from New Hampshire Republicans. 59%? That's the sort of support that Governor Corbett (R-PA) got in from Pennsylvania Republicans 2010 when he was enmeshed in the scandal involving the football program at Penn State. One usually needs about 80% support within one's own Party to have a chance of winning.
3. The last time that New Hampshire was a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President was 1964, when LBJ got over 63% of the vote against the messed-up campaign of Barry Goldwater.
4. This corroborates another poll in which Donald Trump had abysmal support in New Hampshire. The only electoral votes that I can now imagine the President winning in 2020 to the north and east of the Potomac is the single electoral vote of the Second Congressional District of Maine -- for which I simply have no data.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.