At this point, I suggest that President Trump would go down to defeat as least as severely as the elder Bush in 1992 and perhaps as severely as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1976. I see a pattern of failed re-election bids of Presidents in that the states that he barely lost go out of reach (see Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia) and that those that the failed president barely won in the first election turn against him. Surprise wins for the President from the previous election (Iowa is the only such state) turn against him, and those that started to trend against him (Arizona and Texas are such states) can become trouble.
I am tempted to believe that a map of disapproval ratings might show an even sharper trend. If one has a disapproval rating of 50% or more, then even an unremarkable challenger can win.
Map for this theme:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=4;48;1&AZ=4;49*;1&AR=2;39;7&CA=1;57;5&CO=1;56;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;53;3&GA=0;;5&HI=1;59;5&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=4;49;1&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;64;7&MA=1;60+;7&MI=1;61;7&MN=1;51;3&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=2;42;5&NV=1;50;3&NH=1;60;7&NJ=1;66;7&NM=0;;4&NY=1;67;7&NC=1;50;3&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=2;36*;7&OR=0;;5&PA=1;62;7&RI=0;;6&SC=2;47;3&SD=0;;5&TN=2;42;5&TX=1;51;3&UT=1;55;5&VT=0;;6&VA=1;57;5&WA=1;56;5&WV=2;36;7&WI=1;51;3&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher
* favorability
I am tempted to believe that a map of disapproval ratings might show an even sharper trend. If one has a disapproval rating of 50% or more, then even an unremarkable challenger can win.
Map for this theme:
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher
* favorability
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.