Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(07-05-2017, 08:16 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(07-04-2017, 11:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Remind me, if you will, what vital national interests were at
>   stake in Kosovo, over which we nearly went to war with Russia, or
>   in Libya, where we set the precedent that dictator giving up a
>   nuclear weapons program would result in his removal?

Long after a war is over, you can look back and see that there weren't
"vital national interests" at all.  You could say that there were no
vital national interests in the Iraq war, Gulf war, Vietnam war,
Korean war, WW II - European theatre, WW I.  By looking at the past,
you could argue that there was only one war where the US had vital
national interests -- the Pacific theatre in WW II.

In fact, I believe that there are pacifists around who would agree
with the last paragraph.

So what would have happened to the world if we had been clever enough
to stay out of every war except the WW II Pacific theatre?  Would we
have been invaded by other countries because we're so weak -- which
means that we would have had to fight other wars anyway?

At any rate, if you want to judge why a country went to war, a
retrospective analysis of vital national interests is irrelevant.
("Hindight is always 20-20.")  You have to look at "perceived"
national interests at the time that the decision was being made.
Under those conditions, the two wars you mention can be justified.

Here's an article I wrote last year on the Libya war:

** 15-Sep-16 World View -- UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160915

And here's a timeline that explains the Kosovo war:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/.../cron.html

The way the world works is that wars are always a lot more popular as
they're starting than they ever are in retrospect.

I'm not talking about retrospect, though.  Even at the time, the justification for interfering in Kosovo was humanitarian, not US national interest, and similarly getting rid of Qadafi was justified based on wanting to spread democracy, not US national interest.  In the latter case there might have been some jockeying between French oil interests and Italian oil interests, but that didn't affect the US.