07-13-2017, 10:31 PM
*** 14-Jul-17 World View -- Turkey's assault on Kurds in Afrin, Syria, may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey threatens the Kurds in Afrin, Syria, with Operation Euphrates Sword
****
![[Image: g170705b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170705b.jpg)
Map showing areas of control in Syria for government, ISIS, Kurds and rebels. Afrin is north eastern Syria in the region shown in yellow in the top-left. (al-Jazeera)
Turkey has for months talked about an assault on the Kurdish-held city
of Afrin in Syria's northeast, near the border with Turkey, and there
are signs that the assault is imminent. (Afrin is in the northeast
region shown in yellow on the above map.)
Turkish forces and Kurdish forces north of Afrin have been exchanging
cross-border fire for weeks, and early this week a convoy of six
military vehicles was sent as reinforcements to a city on Turkey's
border with Syria. Over the weekend, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a press conference at the G20 summit
in Hamburg, Germany. Kurds in Syria have links to the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated a
terrorist group by America and countries in Europe, and which
have conducted terrorist actions and low-level violence in
Turkey for 30 years.
Erdogan considers all Kurds in Syria to be terrorists. He called
Afrin a "threat" to Turkey and left little doubt that the assault on
Afrin is going to occur:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will never remain silent or unresponsive to the
> backing and arming of terrorist groups, and the formation of
> terror islets right next to our border.
>
> We will not hesitate to use our legitimate right to defense
> against formations that threaten our country’s security. We will
> not allow a YPG threat. Afrin is a threat for us, we will give the
> necessary response.
>
> As long as this threat continues, we will activate our rules of
> engagement and will continue to give the necessary answer to those
> in Afrin."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The military operation against Afrin and Kurdish enclaves and militias
is called Operation Euphrates Sword, which has not yet begun, but may
begin at any time. Turkey claims that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF)
and Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies have amassed a force of 17,000
fighters for the assault.
Last year, Turkey launched an earlier operation, Operation Euphrates
Shield, whose purpose was to prevent the Kurds from taking control of
Syria's entire northern border, and declaring an independent Kurdish
state called Rojava. The result was that Turkish-backed rebel forces
have control of the light blue area in the map above, on the border
with Turkey, but separating the two regions controlled by the Kurds.
Although Turkey prevented the Kurds from taking control of that light
blue area, Turkey is still concerned that the Kurds might still link
the two yellow regions by going further south. The assault on Afrin
will prevent that.
The assault on Afrin could be very difficult, long and bloody,
according to some analysts. Afrin is heavily defended by Kurdish
militias, and the terrain too rugged, covered with forests and olive
groves, for easy movement of armored vehicles. AFP(9-July) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Arab News
Related Articles
****
**** Turkey's assault on Afrin may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa
****
As we've been reporting, the battle to liberate Raqqa from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is ongoing, led
by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which contains some Arabs and
mostly Kurds from the People's Protection Units (YPG).
According to some reports, some 3,000 fighters from Afrin are
taking part in the operation to expel ISIS from Raqqa. If
Turkey's assault on Afrin begins, those 3,000 fighters are
expected to leave Raqqa and return to defend Afrin. This would
put the Raqqa operation in jeopardy.
For this reason, the US has asked Turkey to delay the assault on Afrin
as long as possible, so that the attack on Raqqa can be completed.
Turkey sees this from the opposite direction. Turkish officials say
that the Afrin assault has to take place as quickly as possible, while
the Kurdish forces are still tied up in Raqqa.
The US is using the Kurds in Raqqa because they've proven to be the
most effective fighting force against ISIS. This infuriated Turkish
officials, who wanted to have their Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters
lead the operation. They also strongly objected to giving US weapons
to the YPG, because some will ultimately end up in the hands of PKK
terrorists in Turkey.
Because the attack on Afrin has not yet taken place, there
has been a great deal of speculation, including the following
from different reports:
Much of this speculation will only be resolved if and when the
military operations in Afrin and Raqqa are completed. Jerusalem Post and Kurdistan 24 and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Afrin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Euphrates Sword,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, Rojava, Russia, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Afrin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Euphrates Sword,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, Rojava, Russia, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey threatens the Kurds in Afrin, Syria, with Operation Euphrates Sword
- Turkey's assault on Afrin may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa
****
**** Turkey threatens the Kurds in Afrin, Syria, with Operation Euphrates Sword
****
Map showing areas of control in Syria for government, ISIS, Kurds and rebels. Afrin is north eastern Syria in the region shown in yellow in the top-left. (al-Jazeera)
Turkey has for months talked about an assault on the Kurdish-held city
of Afrin in Syria's northeast, near the border with Turkey, and there
are signs that the assault is imminent. (Afrin is in the northeast
region shown in yellow on the above map.)
Turkish forces and Kurdish forces north of Afrin have been exchanging
cross-border fire for weeks, and early this week a convoy of six
military vehicles was sent as reinforcements to a city on Turkey's
border with Syria. Over the weekend, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a press conference at the G20 summit
in Hamburg, Germany. Kurds in Syria have links to the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated a
terrorist group by America and countries in Europe, and which
have conducted terrorist actions and low-level violence in
Turkey for 30 years.
Erdogan considers all Kurds in Syria to be terrorists. He called
Afrin a "threat" to Turkey and left little doubt that the assault on
Afrin is going to occur:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We will never remain silent or unresponsive to the
> backing and arming of terrorist groups, and the formation of
> terror islets right next to our border.
>
> We will not hesitate to use our legitimate right to defense
> against formations that threaten our country’s security. We will
> not allow a YPG threat. Afrin is a threat for us, we will give the
> necessary response.
>
> As long as this threat continues, we will activate our rules of
> engagement and will continue to give the necessary answer to those
> in Afrin."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The military operation against Afrin and Kurdish enclaves and militias
is called Operation Euphrates Sword, which has not yet begun, but may
begin at any time. Turkey claims that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF)
and Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies have amassed a force of 17,000
fighters for the assault.
Last year, Turkey launched an earlier operation, Operation Euphrates
Shield, whose purpose was to prevent the Kurds from taking control of
Syria's entire northern border, and declaring an independent Kurdish
state called Rojava. The result was that Turkish-backed rebel forces
have control of the light blue area in the map above, on the border
with Turkey, but separating the two regions controlled by the Kurds.
Although Turkey prevented the Kurds from taking control of that light
blue area, Turkey is still concerned that the Kurds might still link
the two yellow regions by going further south. The assault on Afrin
will prevent that.
The assault on Afrin could be very difficult, long and bloody,
according to some analysts. Afrin is heavily defended by Kurdish
militias, and the terrain too rugged, covered with forests and olive
groves, for easy movement of armored vehicles. AFP(9-July) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Arab News
Related Articles
- Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias (31-May-2017)
- Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq (26-Apr-2017)
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
****
**** Turkey's assault on Afrin may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa
****
As we've been reporting, the battle to liberate Raqqa from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is ongoing, led
by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which contains some Arabs and
mostly Kurds from the People's Protection Units (YPG).
According to some reports, some 3,000 fighters from Afrin are
taking part in the operation to expel ISIS from Raqqa. If
Turkey's assault on Afrin begins, those 3,000 fighters are
expected to leave Raqqa and return to defend Afrin. This would
put the Raqqa operation in jeopardy.
For this reason, the US has asked Turkey to delay the assault on Afrin
as long as possible, so that the attack on Raqqa can be completed.
Turkey sees this from the opposite direction. Turkish officials say
that the Afrin assault has to take place as quickly as possible, while
the Kurdish forces are still tied up in Raqqa.
The US is using the Kurds in Raqqa because they've proven to be the
most effective fighting force against ISIS. This infuriated Turkish
officials, who wanted to have their Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters
lead the operation. They also strongly objected to giving US weapons
to the YPG, because some will ultimately end up in the hands of PKK
terrorists in Turkey.
Because the attack on Afrin has not yet taken place, there
has been a great deal of speculation, including the following
from different reports:
- Some analysts are suggesting that because of the complexity of
the operation, Turkey has no intention of attacking Afrin, but is
using the threat of an attack as a bluff to gain concessions.
- According to some reports, Russia had stationed troops in
Afrin to prevent the Turkish operation, but withdrew them two
months ago because the Russians are angry at the Kurds for
working so well with the Americans.
- Another report says that Russia withdrew its troops in a
tit-for-tat exchange to buy cooperation from the Turks in
planned operations in Idlib later this year.
- A variation of that report says that Iran and Russia are willing
to hand over Afrin to Turkey "in exchange for concessions" in other
parts of Syria, especially related to Russia's de-escalation
zones.
- The Kurds took control of Afrin in 2013, by driving the Syrian
regime army out. Another report says that Russia is asking the Kurds
to hand Afrin back to the Syrian regime in order to stop the attacks
from Turkey.
Much of this speculation will only be resolved if and when the
military operations in Afrin and Raqqa are completed. Jerusalem Post and Kurdistan 24 and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
Related Articles
- In dramatic development, US warplanes smash fortified wall in Raqqa, Syria (05-Jul-2017)
- US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turkey's opposition (11-May-2017)
- Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June (16-May-2017)
- US-backed Kurdish militias in Syria make surprise announcement of Raqqa operation (07-Nov-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Afrin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Euphrates Sword,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, Rojava, Russia, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, Afrin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Operation Euphrates Sword,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, Rojava, Russia, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
