Iowa -- Selzer, Des Moines Register:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/n...480236001/
Selzer is one of the best pollsters in the business. It's one state and one electorally-small, but the 'gain' in disapproval for the President suggests that Iowa could be out of reach for the president in 2020. Other Republicans do fine, so the problem is Donald Trump. President Trump won Iowa decisively in 2016, but with this disapproval I can hardly expect him to win the state in 2020.
This poll suggests that the President has not pulled the Midwest permanently into the clutches of the Republican Party. Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem.
Don't be surprised if I modify this polling map to add other statewide polls.
Come on, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio!
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona, Massachusetts and Oklahoma
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;;3&AZ=1;F;7&AR=2;;7&CA=1;;9&CO=1;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;3&GA=0;;5&HI=1;;9&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;;5&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;9&MA=1;F;9&MI=1;;9&MN=1;;5&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=2;;5&NV=1;;3&NH=1;;9&NJ=1;;9&NM=0;;4&NY=1;;9&NC=1;;3&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=2;F;9&OR=0;;5&PA=1;;7&RI=0;;6&SC=1;;4&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;7&TX=1;;5&UT=1;;3&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;5&WA=1;;5&WV=2;;7&WI=1;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.
Disapproval ratings:
Map for this theme:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=4;48;1&AZ=4;49*;1&AR=2;39;7&CA=1;57;5&CO=1;56;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;53;3&GA=0;;5&HI=1;59;5&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;52;3&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;64;7&MA=1;60+;7&MI=1;61;7&MN=1;51;3&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=2;42;5&NV=1;50;3&NH=1;60;7&NJ=1;66;7&NM=0;;4&NY=1;67;7&NC=1;50;3&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=2;36*;7&OR=0;;5&PA=1;62;7&RI=0;;6&SC=2;47;3&SD=0;;5&TN=2;42;5&TX=1;51;3&UT=1;55;5&VT=0;;6&VA=1;57;5&WA=1;56;5&WV=2;36;7&WI=1;51;3&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher
* favorability
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
Quote:A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 43 percent of Iowans approve of the job Republican Donald Trump is doing as president, compared with 52 percent who disapprove. Fifty-six percent, meanwhile, say the nation has gotten off on the wrong track, while 32 percent say it’s headed in the right direction.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/n...480236001/
Selzer is one of the best pollsters in the business. It's one state and one electorally-small, but the 'gain' in disapproval for the President suggests that Iowa could be out of reach for the president in 2020. Other Republicans do fine, so the problem is Donald Trump. President Trump won Iowa decisively in 2016, but with this disapproval I can hardly expect him to win the state in 2020.
This poll suggests that the President has not pulled the Midwest permanently into the clutches of the Republican Party. Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem.
Don't be surprised if I modify this polling map to add other statewide polls.
Come on, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio!
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona, Massachusetts and Oklahoma
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.
Disapproval ratings:
Map for this theme:
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher
* favorability
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.