Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

(07-28-2017, 10:46 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(07-27-2017, 04:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The first two polls after the self-pardon talk -- California and Nevada, together 61 electoral votes.


Former President (and Governor of California about fifty years ago) Ronald Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

Quote:PPIC - California:

Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%

Only 68% of California Republicans and 33% of Independents approve of Trump.

Source

Donald Trump must remind many Californians of their landlords, arguably the least-beloved of entrepreneurs to middle-class people. But this may be the first statewide poll in the wake of the 'self-pardon' talk.  If this is not a fluke, then any new polls of such states as Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington could be going into the 'deep red' category.

This "71" is so far the highest disapproval that I have seen of the President in any state, tying the Gallup composite from January to July in Vermont. I'm not sure that a current poll of Vermont would be any better for the President Trump. But Vermont gets polled little... three electoral votes and dull politics is less interesting than 55 electoral votes and dull politics.

neighboring Nevada (PPP):

Quote:PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

For one of the usual battleground states, Nevada gets polled rather little. Remember: this poll is newer than a reasonable estimate of the Gallup composite that averages (as I understand) from April.  Most polls (barring favorability polls, polls by special interests, internal polls, and polls with the suspect "electric green fried potatoes" wording will supplant the Gallup composites which are older and of declining relevance. I am no longer using the excuse 'Beggars can't be choosers' to accept just about any poll. The Nevada poll is not a category-changer. It is still consistent with Trump losing about 3% support since April, which is still within the range of error.   

Nevada, although extremely urban, is a low-income state with lower-than-average educational achievement, so it should be more amenable to President Trump than such states as Colorado and Virginia. But Trump is doing badly in Nevada.     






Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

What Trump reminds us of is a bad combination of the type of obnoxious grandiose "Noo Yawkah" who sometimes relos here solely for the weather, but is a real odd out culturally, and, a caudillo of the type stereotypically found South of the border.

See, Reagan, on the other hand, even though a (Midwestern) transplant himself, became very comfortable with the Western US ways. In our hinterlands and outright outlands, we have an ethos that is simultaneously conservative and mindful of personal freedom. It is an extremely live and let live ethos, not unlike the 1960s hippies. Any Right wing politician seeking to make headway out here needs to mind this. Trump clearly has not, especially of late.

Speaking of odd outs, WTF with the northern intermountain states. But that I ascribe to the White Power types up there. They have become Kremlin bootlickers due to their distorted belief that Russia is their ally vis a vis White Power. They have too much Pat Buchanan on the brain.

With the composite data from Connecticut, I can finally say what I have assumed for a while:  the more that people get to know Donald Trump, the less they like him. The "59" in Connecticut, the "58" in New Jersey, and the "62" in New York suggest that where he is best known he is least liked. The "71" for Vermont  suggest that Donald Trump is the sort of person who goes on a "fall color" tour from New York and makes a loud, obnoxious fool of himself. Vermonters enjoy having out-of-state tourists stopping in their restaurants and stores  that might shutter without such trade -- but someone like Trump makes staff miserable.

I have suggested that to Californians, Trump  often suggests a landlord.

Were he at all effective as President, then he would have positive approvals in states that he barely lost (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, and arguably Colorado and Virginia... but he is gaining nothing there.

The execrable ratings in Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest promises made and promises broken.

I'd guess that disapproval of President Trump is over 80% in the District of Columbia. Assuming that the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska go as their states go at-large,  I can count electoral votes by disapproval rating based either upon the Gallup composite or a poll from May or later...

Listing the electoral votes available at levels of disapproval for the President from the lowest levels to the highest

EVB  DSR CHG   EVA   states
   
000   36   11     011    ND WV WY
006   39   16     027    AL OK
022   41   03     030    MT
030   42   21     051    ID KS TN
051   43   23     075    KY LA NE SD
075   44   09     084    SC
084   46   16     100    MO MS
100   47   06     106    AR
106   48   32     138    AK  IN OH
138   50   37     175    GA NC UT
175   51   77     252    FL TX  WI
252   52   17     269    AZ IA
269   53   06     275    NV
275   55   08     283    ME RI
270   56   15     298    DE NM OR
295   57   31     329    CO MN VA
317   58   34     363    IL NJ
347   59   24     387    CO HI WA
383   60   04     391    NH 
387   61   16     407    MI
403   62   49     456    NY PA
456   64   10     466    MD
466   66   11     477    MA
477   71   58     535    CA VT
535   80   03     538    DC

EVB -- electoral votes BEFORE winning the state(s)
DIS -- disapproval rating
CHG -- change in the number of electoral votes
EVA -- electoral votes AFTER winning states in this category
'80' is my guess for the District of Columbia.

This is how the states 'fall' if I  use disapproval ratings for the President to predict which states switch from an unnamed opponent to Donald Trump. He must win states in which his disapproval rating is 43% just to avoid a loss like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. For him to lose that badly he would have to lose even more credibility.

The elder Bush got only 168 electoral votes in 1992. He wasn't a really-awful President; he just couldn't convince people that he had any idea of what to do in a second term. To avoid losing that badly, President Trump would have to win some states in which 50% of the people disapprove of his performance. In a close election, Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter with 30 electoral votes short of a win. He would need to win states in which his disapproval is now at 51%.

By winning every state in which his disapproval rating is 52% he would get a tie in the Electoral College. House delegations would then decide who wins unless the President can pick off the Second Congressional District of Maine.

To win roughly as Dubya did in 2004 (284 electoral votes) he would have to win states in which his disapproval rating is at 55%.