08-10-2017, 07:13 AM
I'd guess that disapproval of President Trump is over 80% in the District of Columbia. Assuming that the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska go as their states go at-large, I can count electoral votes by disapproval rating based either upon the Gallup composite or a poll from May or later...
Listing the electoral votes available at levels of disapproval for the President from the lowest levels to the highest
EVB DSR CHG EVA states
000 36 11 011 ND WV WY
006 39 16 027 AL OK
022 41 03 030 MT
030 42 21 051 ID KS TN
051 43 23 075 KY LA NE SD
075 44 09 084 SC
084 46 16 100 MO MS
100 47 06 106 AR
106 48 32 138 AK IN OH
138 50 37 175 GA NC UT
175 51 77 252 FL TX WI
252 52 17 269 AZ IA
269 53 06 275 NV
275 55 08 287 ME NH RI
287 56 15 302 DE NM OR
302 57 31 316 CO MN
316 58 34 350 IL NJ
350 59 24 374 CT HI WA
374 61 16 407 MI VA
407 62 49 456 NY PA
456 64 10 466 MD
466 66 11 477 MA
477 71 58 535 CA VT
535 80 03 538 DC
EVB -- electoral votes BEFORE winning the state(s)
DIS -- disapproval rating
CHG -- change in the number of electoral votes
EVA -- electoral votes AFTER winning states in this category
'80' is my guess for the District of Columbia.
This is how the states 'fall' if I use disapproval ratings for the President to predict which states switch from an unnamed opponent to Donald Trump. He must win states in which his disapproval rating is 43% just to avoid a loss like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. For him to lose that badly he would have to lose even more credibility.
Listing the electoral votes available at levels of disapproval for the President from the lowest levels to the highest
EVB DSR CHG EVA states
000 36 11 011 ND WV WY
006 39 16 027 AL OK
022 41 03 030 MT
030 42 21 051 ID KS TN
051 43 23 075 KY LA NE SD
075 44 09 084 SC
084 46 16 100 MO MS
100 47 06 106 AR
106 48 32 138 AK IN OH
138 50 37 175 GA NC UT
175 51 77 252 FL TX WI
252 52 17 269 AZ IA
269 53 06 275 NV
275 55 08 287 ME NH RI
287 56 15 302 DE NM OR
302 57 31 316 CO MN
316 58 34 350 IL NJ
350 59 24 374 CT HI WA
374 61 16 407 MI VA
407 62 49 456 NY PA
456 64 10 466 MD
466 66 11 477 MA
477 71 58 535 CA VT
535 80 03 538 DC
EVB -- electoral votes BEFORE winning the state(s)
DIS -- disapproval rating
CHG -- change in the number of electoral votes
EVA -- electoral votes AFTER winning states in this category
'80' is my guess for the District of Columbia.
This is how the states 'fall' if I use disapproval ratings for the President to predict which states switch from an unnamed opponent to Donald Trump. He must win states in which his disapproval rating is 43% just to avoid a loss like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. For him to lose that badly he would have to lose even more credibility.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.