Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Mostly posted elsewhere (Leip's Election Atlas) but modified to fit the generational theory.

The three states that were the closest wins for Donald Trump have turned against him. Because Trump is doing badly in all states that he lost, he must win one of these three states to get re-elected. He won't be getting them back in 2020 except in a rigged election. Of course, this is a Crisis Era, so we can rule out far fewer things (including a military coup) than we can in less ominous times.

Marist, approval, registered voters (which will skew old because many voters of 2020 will be voting for the first time, and that will be largely younger voters). But even without an infusion of younger, liberal votes President Trump looks to be the political equivalent of a helpless lobster in a cooking pot full of boiling water -- at least in these three states.

Michigan: 36 approve, 55 disapprove.

Trump does above 50% with Republicans, White Evangelicals, "Trump supporters", "Tea Party supporters", and people describing themselves as  'conservative' or 'very conservative' but otherwise does badly among just about every identifiable group. Among men it is 43%, and from there it gets even worse across ever sector of ethnicity, educational level, income, and even region within Michigan, including southwestern Michigan which is usually about as solidly Republican as Alabama.

The Governor is term-limited, so he won't be running for re-election.  That will save him some embarrassment, as he was down 37-47 in favorability.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/...pdf#page=3  

Pennsylvania: 35 approve 54 disapprove

Much the same as in Michigan -- Trump fails among every group except those directly connected to his ideology. He does have a 44-42 edge among white people without college degrees, which is far from enough for a win here .

Governor Tom Wolf (D) 47-37 in favorability... good shape.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/...pdf#page=3

Wisconsin: 34 approve 56 disapprove

Much as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even "conservative/very conservative" support is rather weak for usual expectations at 63-26.  

Favorability/unfavorability of Governor Scott Walker : 40-53 among registered voters. He's going down unless he can rig the 2018 Wisconsin election, and he won't be able to help the President in a re-election bid unless he can turn his poor rating of favorability up significantly.  (An incumbent needs to have at least a 43% approval rating before the campaign season begins if running for re-election to have a 50% chance of getting re-elected. I'm thinking that the Governor is beginning to be hurt by being a right-wing Republican while Trump is President).

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/...pdf#page=3

Don't try running against Obama if you are a Republican in these three states: in Wisconsin, 60% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Obama. In Pennsylvania it is 62%, and in Michigan it is 63%.

I'd love to see some polls of Georgia and Ohio (nothing yet except for Gallup's composite data) and Iowa (about due) about now.









Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+