06-14-2016, 12:23 PM
(06-14-2016, 11:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It makes sense. The Italo-Abyssinian War was an Awakening-Era war
> for Italy (the unification of Italy in the late-middle novecento
> being a Crisis era analogous to the American Revolution, with
> parts of Italy toppling Austrian rule) and a Crisis-era war for
> Ethiopia. The Sahelian famine, Eritrean secession, and the
> overthrow of the Ethiopian monarchy with the rise of Haile
> Mengistu, who made Benito Mussolini look like a humane and
> benevolent overlord by contrast, comprise a truly nasty 4T
> analogous to the Russian Revolution, Civil War, and Stalinist
> madness. Can a Crisis last 30 years? Sure -- in Russia between
> 1916 (catastrophic defeats of Tsarist armies and political
> collapse) and 1945 (end of the Great Patriotic War), and
> apparently in Ethiopia.
> Few countries do wars well in Awakening Eras (think of the
> American involvement in the Vietnam War, and the Italian part of
> the Italo-Abyssinian War).
That's a good analysis. However, I have to go back in time about ten
years, and return to the perennial argument of that time. My response
is:
- A Crisis era cannot possibly last 30 years, because the population
cannot maintain a Crisis era mood for that long. As time goes on, if
no Regeneracy events occur, then the population will slide into a
Fifth Turning, with distinctly different characteristics than a Fourth
Turning.
- A non-crisis war can last 30 years, usually with alternating
periods of peace and low-level violence and police actions. But once
the Regeneracy occurs, then it becomes a full-fledged crisis war. As
far as I can tell, crisis wars tend to last about five years. If a
crisis war lasts longer than that, then something else would have
happened: a crisis war climax after about five years, and then it
turns into a Recovery era war which, once again, is distinctly
different from a crisis war.
- The Bolshevik Revolution was a crisis war. The crisis war climax
occurred in 1927 when Stalin defeated Trotsky.
- World War II was an Awakening era war for Russia. Ten years ago,
David Kaiser opined that WW II was an Awakening war for Russia, but it
so thoroughly destroyed the Prophet generation that it postponed the
next crisis war, which hasn't yet occurred. This is similar to the
reasoning behind a "First Turning Reset," that occurs when a crisis
occurs during a non-crisis era. This could be an unexpected massive
invasion, or it could be a forced relocation of an entire population.
In either case, the population acts according to its era, but returns
to a First Turning Recovery Era following the crisis.
