09-21-2017, 10:47 PM
*** 22-Sep-17 World View -- Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea
****
![[Image: g170921b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170921b.jpg)
Kim Jong-un in a Japanese news broadcast being broadcast on an outdoor video screen in Tokyo. (AP)
President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order imposing
a new round of sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were
approved by the UN Security Council on Monday of last week, and
attempt to leverage the power of the US financial system. On the same
day, the European Union reached agreement to ban EU investment in
North Korea.
To my knowledge, no one seriously believes that these new sanctions
will have any major effect on North Korea, any more than previous
sanctions have, or that they will motivate the North Koreans to end
its nuclear missile development program.
President Trump's sanctions can apply to persons in any country
outside of North Korea. The executive order calls for sanctions on
persons involved in:
Sanctions may be imposed on any foreign financial institution in any
country, if the institution conducts or facilitates trade with North
Korea. The White House says that "Foreign financial institutions must
choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating
trade with North Korea or its designated supporters." Reuters and White House and Reuters
****
**** Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed
****
According to the White House:
<QUOTE>"The [Executive Order] directly targets North Korea’s
shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels
and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the
United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in
a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea
within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks
to facilitate international trade."<END QUOTE>
Ships and aircraft that have visited or traded with North Korea will
be banned from entering the United States for 180 days.
However, this is far short of the kinds of sanctions that Trump had
wanted to impose. According to the draft resolution that the US
submitted to the Security Council two weeks ago, any U.N. member state
would be authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of
carrying banned cargo and to use "all necessary measures to carry out
such inspections."
The banned cargo would include any "crude oil, condensates, refined
petroleum products, and natural gas liquids," as well as textiles. The
draft resolution called for an end to the hiring of North Korean
nationals, which provide North Korea with hard currency.
This would be an effective trade blockade on North Korea. Although
any nation would be authorized to carry out the forced inspections, as
a practical matter it's expected that only the US would actually do
so. If a North Korean ship resisted the inspection, then there might
be an exchange of fire that might escalate into war, putting Seoul,
South Korea, into great risk.
It was those fears of escalation that caused Russia and China to
threaten to veto the resolution. In order to overcome the objections,
the US agreed to water down the resolution to the point where it will
have no effect at all on the North Korean regime.
Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis was asked whether
there were any military options the United States could take with
North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk. Mattis said: “Yes
there are. But I will not go into details.”
Guardian (London, 11-Sep) and Bloomberg (13-Sep) and Reuters (18-Sep) and Washington Examiner
****
**** North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test'
****
In a statement a couple of days ago, North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un threatened the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in
history" against the United States.
North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was asked on Thursday what
that meant, and he said,
<QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb
in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken
as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE>
This action, if taken, would be just as much an escalation towards war
that the proposed military blockade of North Korea would be. The
hydrogen explosion would threaten shipping and planes flying overhead,
and would release a great deal of radiation and cause environmental
damage.
So the United States and West have two possible paths forward -- a
"peaceful" diplomatic approach (sanctions), amounting to appeasement,
and a confrontational approach (blockade). The appeasement could
trigger war from the North Korean side, while the blockade could
trigger war from the American side.
Either action leads to the same outcome. For almost 15 years, I've
been writing Generational Dynamics analyses that predict that the
world is headed for World War III, pitting the US, the West, India,
Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.
The World War could be predicted, but the timing and the exact
scenario leading to that war could not be predicted. But now we seem
to be rushing toward war over North Korea, and neither Russia nor
China seem willing to take steps to prevent it.
As an additional note, there is a report that Steve Bannon had a
secret meeting with a senior Chinese Communist Party official in
Beijing last week. Bannon is an expert on world history, and is also
an expert on Generational Dynamics. He was recently ousted from the
White House as Donald Trump's chief strategy, but according to
reports, he still has the president's ear. Bannon fully understands
that the world is headed for a world war. Perhaps he hopes that by
meeting with the Chinese, he can find a way to prevent it, although
Generational Dynamics says that it can't be prevented. Yonhap (South Korea) and Sky News (Australia) and Washington Examiner
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, China,
Jim Mattis, Ri Yong Ho, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea
- Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed
- North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test'
****
**** Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea
****
Kim Jong-un in a Japanese news broadcast being broadcast on an outdoor video screen in Tokyo. (AP)
President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order imposing
a new round of sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were
approved by the UN Security Council on Monday of last week, and
attempt to leverage the power of the US financial system. On the same
day, the European Union reached agreement to ban EU investment in
North Korea.
To my knowledge, no one seriously believes that these new sanctions
will have any major effect on North Korea, any more than previous
sanctions have, or that they will motivate the North Koreans to end
its nuclear missile development program.
President Trump's sanctions can apply to persons in any country
outside of North Korea. The executive order calls for sanctions on
persons involved in:
- Industries: The construction, energy, financial services,
fishing, information technology, manufacturing, medical, mining,
textiles, or transportation industries in North Korea;
- Ports: Ownership, control, or operation of any port in North
Korea, including any seaport, airport, or land port of entry;
- Imports/Exports: at least one significant importation from or
exportation to North Korea of any goods, services, or
technology.
Sanctions may be imposed on any foreign financial institution in any
country, if the institution conducts or facilitates trade with North
Korea. The White House says that "Foreign financial institutions must
choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating
trade with North Korea or its designated supporters." Reuters and White House and Reuters
****
**** Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed
****
According to the White House:
<QUOTE>"The [Executive Order] directly targets North Korea’s
shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels
and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the
United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in
a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea
within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks
to facilitate international trade."<END QUOTE>
Ships and aircraft that have visited or traded with North Korea will
be banned from entering the United States for 180 days.
However, this is far short of the kinds of sanctions that Trump had
wanted to impose. According to the draft resolution that the US
submitted to the Security Council two weeks ago, any U.N. member state
would be authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of
carrying banned cargo and to use "all necessary measures to carry out
such inspections."
The banned cargo would include any "crude oil, condensates, refined
petroleum products, and natural gas liquids," as well as textiles. The
draft resolution called for an end to the hiring of North Korean
nationals, which provide North Korea with hard currency.
This would be an effective trade blockade on North Korea. Although
any nation would be authorized to carry out the forced inspections, as
a practical matter it's expected that only the US would actually do
so. If a North Korean ship resisted the inspection, then there might
be an exchange of fire that might escalate into war, putting Seoul,
South Korea, into great risk.
It was those fears of escalation that caused Russia and China to
threaten to veto the resolution. In order to overcome the objections,
the US agreed to water down the resolution to the point where it will
have no effect at all on the North Korean regime.
Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis was asked whether
there were any military options the United States could take with
North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk. Mattis said: “Yes
there are. But I will not go into details.”
Guardian (London, 11-Sep) and Bloomberg (13-Sep) and Reuters (18-Sep) and Washington Examiner
****
**** North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test'
****
In a statement a couple of days ago, North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un threatened the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in
history" against the United States.
North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was asked on Thursday what
that meant, and he said,
<QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb
in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken
as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE>
This action, if taken, would be just as much an escalation towards war
that the proposed military blockade of North Korea would be. The
hydrogen explosion would threaten shipping and planes flying overhead,
and would release a great deal of radiation and cause environmental
damage.
So the United States and West have two possible paths forward -- a
"peaceful" diplomatic approach (sanctions), amounting to appeasement,
and a confrontational approach (blockade). The appeasement could
trigger war from the North Korean side, while the blockade could
trigger war from the American side.
Either action leads to the same outcome. For almost 15 years, I've
been writing Generational Dynamics analyses that predict that the
world is headed for World War III, pitting the US, the West, India,
Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries.
The World War could be predicted, but the timing and the exact
scenario leading to that war could not be predicted. But now we seem
to be rushing toward war over North Korea, and neither Russia nor
China seem willing to take steps to prevent it.
As an additional note, there is a report that Steve Bannon had a
secret meeting with a senior Chinese Communist Party official in
Beijing last week. Bannon is an expert on world history, and is also
an expert on Generational Dynamics. He was recently ousted from the
White House as Donald Trump's chief strategy, but according to
reports, he still has the president's ear. Bannon fully understands
that the world is headed for a world war. Perhaps he hopes that by
meeting with the Chinese, he can find a way to prevent it, although
Generational Dynamics says that it can't be prevented. Yonhap (South Korea) and Sky News (Australia) and Washington Examiner
Related Articles
- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War (06-Sep-2017)
- America's UN ambassador Nikki Haley says North Korea is 'begging for war' (05-Sep-2017)
- Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, China,
Jim Mattis, Ri Yong Ho, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
