09-24-2017, 11:09 PM
*** 25-Sep-17 World View -- Rise of far-right AfD party in Germany raises international alarm bells
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Angela Merkel scores weak win in German national elections
****
![[Image: g170924b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170924b.jpg)
Campaign posters: CDU's Angela Merkel: 'Big things start with an ear for the small things.' SDP's Martin Schulz: 'It's time to solve the problems in Europe, instead of exposing them.' (Reuters)
It appears that Angela Merkel has won a fourth term as Chancellor of
Germany, although the relatively weak win will make it difficult for
her to form a governing coalition. Turnout was high, at 75%, compared
to 71% in the 2013 election. But perhaps the biggest news from
Sunday's election is not Merkel's victory, but rather the rise of the
far-right AfD party. (The phrase "far-right" has different meanings
in Europe and America.)
Angela Merkel's center-right party, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU/SDU), has won a plurality of the votes in Germany's national
election on Sunday, with 33% of the votes (according to exit polls),
down 8.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the 2013 election. The CDU
has been the governing party for most of the decades since the end of
World War II, having positioned itself at the party of Christian
democracy, while shedding the Nazism of the 1930s, but this is its
weakest post-war showing.
Merkel's CDU has only 33% of the votes, which is not a majority, which
means that if she wants to govern as Chancellor, then she must form a
governing coalition with other parties. In the past, the center-right
CDU has joined in a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic
Party (SDP). The SDP received 20.5% of the votes in this election,
and so the CDU and SDP could, once again, form a majority coalition.
But the SDP leaders said that they will refuse to form a coalition with
the CDU, and the rise of the AfD is one of the reasons.
The far-right party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for
Germany), received 13% of the votes, gaining 8.5 percentage points
since 2013. This is extremely significant in German politics, because
it means that AfD is surging past the 5% minimum required to be
represented in Germany's Bundestag (parliament).
The AfD is considered nationalistic and xenophobic because of its
policies that are anti-European Union, anti-immigrant, and anti-Islam.
The party was formed in 2013 when Germany led the EU in bailing out
Greece. The bailout turned into an extremely vitriolic war of words
between Germany and Greece, and the AfD was formed as an anti-EU
party. They took their name from a phrase Merkel used in 2013, "There
is no alternative," meaning that there was no alternative to bailing
out Greece.
Then, in 2015, when Angela Merkel approved the arrival of over a
million Syrian refugees with the slogan "Wir schaffen es" ("We can do
it"), the AfD became anti-Islam and anti-immigrant, though its leaders
say that it's not opposed to immigration, only to a flood of
immigrants. In the current election, its election posters showed
young women on the beach with the slogan "Burkas? We’re into bikinis,"
and a young pregnant white woman with the phrase "New Germans? Let’s
make them ourselves."
Supporters of the AfD sometimes are quoted as saying, "The AfD is the
new CDU." By this they mean that after WW II, the CDU became the
party of a Christian democracy in Germany, while shedding the Nazi
past. AfD supporters see the CDU as having abandoned the Christian
heritage, and see the AfD as the new guarantor of a Christian Germany,
while ironically ignoring the return to the 1930s style of nationalism
and xenophobia.
So if Merkel's first-place CDU forms a governing coalition with the
second-place SDP, then third-place AfD will become the major
opposition party, which would give them a special status in the
Bundestag. For that reason, apparently, the SDP is rejecting a
coalition with Merkel's CDU, so that the SDP can be the main
opposition party, and prevent AfD from achieving that special status.
So Merkel will have to form a coalition from some of the smaller
parties. The Greens (Die Grüne, at 9%) are advocating strong
environmental regulations. This contrasts strongly with the Free
Democratic Party (FDP, at 10.7%), which is business-friendly. So
Merkel would have to perform some difficult political juggling to form
a three-way coalition with those two parties.
That leaves Die Linke (the Left, 9.1%), which is the current
incarnation of the 1930s Communist Party. Party leaders said on
Sunday that they wanted to stay out of a coalition, so that they would
be free to vote on their issues.
So Sunday's election is over, but the chaos is just beginning. It's
not an absolute certainty that Merkel will come out of all this as the
Chancellor for a fourth term, but analysts consider it to be a very
likely. Deutsche Welle and Guardian (London)
****
**** Rise of far-right AfD party in Germany raises international alarm bells
****
As I've been writing for years from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, we're deep into a generational Crisis era, and nationalism
and xenophobia have been increasing in most nations around the world.
Whenever I write about this, many people believe that I'm writing
about xenophobia directed at Muslims. While that's true in the case
of Germany's AfD, the target varies widely from country to country,
and the target is usually a target of political convenience.
A good example is the UK, which voted for Brexit largely because of
immigration issues related to the EU rules about "freedom of
movement." In the EU context, "freedom of movement" refers to EU
citizens being able to move freely from EU country to EU country, and
although immigration of Syrian refugees was a part of the Brexit
motivation, the main issue was actually European Union citizens from
eastern European countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. So the
UK's xenophobia was directed mostly at Christians from eastern Europe.
In the United States as well, there is xenophobia directed at
Mexicans, who are also Christian.
In Japan, the xenophobia is directed at China. In China, the
xenophobia is directed at Japan and the United States. In India, it's
directed at Muslims in Pakistan. In Pakistan, it's directed at Hindus
in India. So nationalism and xenophobia are not narrow attitudes
directed at just one group, but are an organic part of every
population during a generational Crisis era, and may be directed at
any religious or ethnic group, depending on the country.
In the case of Germany, many Jews are concerned that the rise of the
AfD means a possible new Holocaust at some time in the future. There
are some 200,000 Jews living in Germany, and post-war Germany has
gained a reputation as a safe, tolerant place for Jews to live,
although Jews point to official data reporting 681 anti-Semitic crimes
reported to police so far this year.
As the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
What this means is that in each generational Crisis era, there are
behaviors that are similar in kind to the behaviors of the previous
generational Crisis era, in this case the period leading up to and
including World War II. Like most countries, Germany does seem to be
on a trend line of increasing nationalism and xenophobia, and if this
trend continues, Germany could witness widespread racist hate crimes,
as in the 1930s. However, for what it's worth, we don't yet know
whether this will be directed at Jews, as it was in the 1930s.
However, even if it's directed just at Muslims it would be equally
disastrous, and historians of the 2030s may look back and say that
there were two Holocausts in the preceding century, one targeting the
Jews and one targeting the Muslims. Der Spiegel and Deutsche Welle and Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Foreign Policy (11-Sept)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Christian Democratic Union, CDU/SDU, Greece,
AfD, Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany,
Die Grüne, Greens, Free Democratic Party, FDP, Die Linke,
United Kingdom, Brexit, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Mexico,
Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Holocaust
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Angela Merkel scores weak win in German national elections
- Rise of far-right AfD party in Germany raises international alarm bells
****
**** Angela Merkel scores weak win in German national elections
****
Campaign posters: CDU's Angela Merkel: 'Big things start with an ear for the small things.' SDP's Martin Schulz: 'It's time to solve the problems in Europe, instead of exposing them.' (Reuters)
It appears that Angela Merkel has won a fourth term as Chancellor of
Germany, although the relatively weak win will make it difficult for
her to form a governing coalition. Turnout was high, at 75%, compared
to 71% in the 2013 election. But perhaps the biggest news from
Sunday's election is not Merkel's victory, but rather the rise of the
far-right AfD party. (The phrase "far-right" has different meanings
in Europe and America.)
Angela Merkel's center-right party, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU/SDU), has won a plurality of the votes in Germany's national
election on Sunday, with 33% of the votes (according to exit polls),
down 8.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the 2013 election. The CDU
has been the governing party for most of the decades since the end of
World War II, having positioned itself at the party of Christian
democracy, while shedding the Nazism of the 1930s, but this is its
weakest post-war showing.
Merkel's CDU has only 33% of the votes, which is not a majority, which
means that if she wants to govern as Chancellor, then she must form a
governing coalition with other parties. In the past, the center-right
CDU has joined in a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic
Party (SDP). The SDP received 20.5% of the votes in this election,
and so the CDU and SDP could, once again, form a majority coalition.
But the SDP leaders said that they will refuse to form a coalition with
the CDU, and the rise of the AfD is one of the reasons.
The far-right party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for
Germany), received 13% of the votes, gaining 8.5 percentage points
since 2013. This is extremely significant in German politics, because
it means that AfD is surging past the 5% minimum required to be
represented in Germany's Bundestag (parliament).
The AfD is considered nationalistic and xenophobic because of its
policies that are anti-European Union, anti-immigrant, and anti-Islam.
The party was formed in 2013 when Germany led the EU in bailing out
Greece. The bailout turned into an extremely vitriolic war of words
between Germany and Greece, and the AfD was formed as an anti-EU
party. They took their name from a phrase Merkel used in 2013, "There
is no alternative," meaning that there was no alternative to bailing
out Greece.
Then, in 2015, when Angela Merkel approved the arrival of over a
million Syrian refugees with the slogan "Wir schaffen es" ("We can do
it"), the AfD became anti-Islam and anti-immigrant, though its leaders
say that it's not opposed to immigration, only to a flood of
immigrants. In the current election, its election posters showed
young women on the beach with the slogan "Burkas? We’re into bikinis,"
and a young pregnant white woman with the phrase "New Germans? Let’s
make them ourselves."
Supporters of the AfD sometimes are quoted as saying, "The AfD is the
new CDU." By this they mean that after WW II, the CDU became the
party of a Christian democracy in Germany, while shedding the Nazi
past. AfD supporters see the CDU as having abandoned the Christian
heritage, and see the AfD as the new guarantor of a Christian Germany,
while ironically ignoring the return to the 1930s style of nationalism
and xenophobia.
So if Merkel's first-place CDU forms a governing coalition with the
second-place SDP, then third-place AfD will become the major
opposition party, which would give them a special status in the
Bundestag. For that reason, apparently, the SDP is rejecting a
coalition with Merkel's CDU, so that the SDP can be the main
opposition party, and prevent AfD from achieving that special status.
So Merkel will have to form a coalition from some of the smaller
parties. The Greens (Die Grüne, at 9%) are advocating strong
environmental regulations. This contrasts strongly with the Free
Democratic Party (FDP, at 10.7%), which is business-friendly. So
Merkel would have to perform some difficult political juggling to form
a three-way coalition with those two parties.
That leaves Die Linke (the Left, 9.1%), which is the current
incarnation of the 1930s Communist Party. Party leaders said on
Sunday that they wanted to stay out of a coalition, so that they would
be free to vote on their issues.
So Sunday's election is over, but the chaos is just beginning. It's
not an absolute certainty that Merkel will come out of all this as the
Chancellor for a fourth term, but analysts consider it to be a very
likely. Deutsche Welle and Guardian (London)
****
**** Rise of far-right AfD party in Germany raises international alarm bells
****
As I've been writing for years from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, we're deep into a generational Crisis era, and nationalism
and xenophobia have been increasing in most nations around the world.
Whenever I write about this, many people believe that I'm writing
about xenophobia directed at Muslims. While that's true in the case
of Germany's AfD, the target varies widely from country to country,
and the target is usually a target of political convenience.
A good example is the UK, which voted for Brexit largely because of
immigration issues related to the EU rules about "freedom of
movement." In the EU context, "freedom of movement" refers to EU
citizens being able to move freely from EU country to EU country, and
although immigration of Syrian refugees was a part of the Brexit
motivation, the main issue was actually European Union citizens from
eastern European countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. So the
UK's xenophobia was directed mostly at Christians from eastern Europe.
In the United States as well, there is xenophobia directed at
Mexicans, who are also Christian.
In Japan, the xenophobia is directed at China. In China, the
xenophobia is directed at Japan and the United States. In India, it's
directed at Muslims in Pakistan. In Pakistan, it's directed at Hindus
in India. So nationalism and xenophobia are not narrow attitudes
directed at just one group, but are an organic part of every
population during a generational Crisis era, and may be directed at
any religious or ethnic group, depending on the country.
In the case of Germany, many Jews are concerned that the rise of the
AfD means a possible new Holocaust at some time in the future. There
are some 200,000 Jews living in Germany, and post-war Germany has
gained a reputation as a safe, tolerant place for Jews to live,
although Jews point to official data reporting 681 anti-Semitic crimes
reported to police so far this year.
As the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
What this means is that in each generational Crisis era, there are
behaviors that are similar in kind to the behaviors of the previous
generational Crisis era, in this case the period leading up to and
including World War II. Like most countries, Germany does seem to be
on a trend line of increasing nationalism and xenophobia, and if this
trend continues, Germany could witness widespread racist hate crimes,
as in the 1930s. However, for what it's worth, we don't yet know
whether this will be directed at Jews, as it was in the 1930s.
However, even if it's directed just at Muslims it would be equally
disastrous, and historians of the 2030s may look back and say that
there were two Holocausts in the preceding century, one targeting the
Jews and one targeting the Muslims. Der Spiegel and Deutsche Welle and Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Foreign Policy (11-Sept)
Related Articles
- Anti-immigrant party in Germany hands Angela Merkel a stinging defeat (05-Sep-2016)
- Migration crisis signals historic shifts in Europe and Mideast (24-Jan-2016)
- Germany commemorates the firebombing of Dresden (14-Feb-2015)
- Germany threatens Britain with EU expulsion over the migrant issue (04-Nov-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Christian Democratic Union, CDU/SDU, Greece,
AfD, Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany,
Die Grüne, Greens, Free Democratic Party, FDP, Die Linke,
United Kingdom, Brexit, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Mexico,
Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Holocaust
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
