10-17-2017, 04:42 PM
I posted this in a forum outside this one, with little modification:
CNN, Oct 12-15 (change from Sep 26-28)
Approve 37 (nc) Strongly 25
Disapprove 57 (+1) Strongly 47
Generic Congressional Ballot: 51D, 37R (among RV: 54D, 38R)
The "strongly disapprove" category is near a majority. This is higher than approval of any form -- by a full ten percent. Statewide polls would be interesting. At this point, I figure that if the election were in November (obviously contrafactual), the President would lose in a landslide.
The Congressional ballot is not definitive, but the ballot is close to a loss of the House (if not the Senate) for the GOP. Gerrymandering as it is, Democrats need at least about a 54-46 split in the overall popular vote to break even in the House.
The Senate: Democrats in a normal election would have a potential loss of six seats this year if the President were at all successful in convincing people of the rectitude and desirability of his agenda. There are only two reasonable chances for Democratic gains in the Senate (Nevada, with a Republican in a Democratic state and Arizona, which seems to be going Democratic due to demographic change). But with the retirement of Bob Corker (TN) and the likely demise of John McCain (AZ -- I saw him speak on TV, and he sounded like death warmed over... and I liked the content of his speech), there might be more Democratic chances.
Rifts in the Republican party are severe. The President is inflicting pain without any coherent idea of how the harsh medicine can make things better for most people. He is riding a bull market not of his making that could implode any day. His diplomatic efforts are crass failures so far. His regional base is the areas of America least like his home of New York City.
CNN, Oct 12-15 (change from Sep 26-28)
Approve 37 (nc) Strongly 25
Disapprove 57 (+1) Strongly 47
Generic Congressional Ballot: 51D, 37R (among RV: 54D, 38R)
The "strongly disapprove" category is near a majority. This is higher than approval of any form -- by a full ten percent. Statewide polls would be interesting. At this point, I figure that if the election were in November (obviously contrafactual), the President would lose in a landslide.
The Congressional ballot is not definitive, but the ballot is close to a loss of the House (if not the Senate) for the GOP. Gerrymandering as it is, Democrats need at least about a 54-46 split in the overall popular vote to break even in the House.
The Senate: Democrats in a normal election would have a potential loss of six seats this year if the President were at all successful in convincing people of the rectitude and desirability of his agenda. There are only two reasonable chances for Democratic gains in the Senate (Nevada, with a Republican in a Democratic state and Arizona, which seems to be going Democratic due to demographic change). But with the retirement of Bob Corker (TN) and the likely demise of John McCain (AZ -- I saw him speak on TV, and he sounded like death warmed over... and I liked the content of his speech), there might be more Democratic chances.
Rifts in the Republican party are severe. The President is inflicting pain without any coherent idea of how the harsh medicine can make things better for most people. He is riding a bull market not of his making that could implode any day. His diplomatic efforts are crass failures so far. His regional base is the areas of America least like his home of New York City.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.