11-10-2017, 11:40 PM
*** 11-Nov-17 World View -- European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
****
![[Image: g171110b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171110b.jpg)
UK Brexit negotiator David Davis and EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (AP)
It was always pretty obvious to anyone who was awake that the surprise
passage of the Brexit referendum on June 23 of last year was a
disaster in the making, and now, 17 months later, nobody has a clue
how it's supposed to work, any more than anyone did when the
referendum first passed.
There are four major issues (or groups of issues) that have to
be resolved, and almost no progress has been made on reaching
an agreement on any of them.
First, there's the trade issue, since businesses in both the UK and
the EU can make plans for conducting business in the future. Will
there be trade tariffs? Will there be product quotas? How many new
layers of bureaucracy will have to be created for a business in the UK
to sell something in the EU, or vice-versa? Britain's prime minister
Theresa May wants to start the trade negotiations right away.
But the EU is refusing to even begin talking about trade, until
the other three issues have been resolved.
So then May hoped that trade negotiations would begin by October, but
they had to be postponed. So now May is hoping to begin trade
negotiations at a UK-EU summit scheduled for December 14-15 in
Brussels, but that depends on the other three.
So zero progress has been made on the first issue, the trade issue, in
the last 17 months, and no date to start negotiations has been agreed.
Second, there's the so-called "divorce bill." This is the amount of
money that the UK must pay to the EU to honor their existing
commitments. This includes such things as pension payments to British
nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for EU
projects and social programs that Britain committed to and was
contributing to before the Brexit referendum passed.
A lot of money is involved here. At first, the UK refused to pay
anything. In recent months, Theresa May has said that she would
"honor its financial obligations," but she has not committed to any
figure. Leaks from the UK side began to mention figures around
€20 billion. However, many EU officials are demanding
€60-70 billion.
On Friday, Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, issued an
ultimatum: The UK must "clarify" what it means by saying that it will
"honor its financial commitments," and must do so within two weeks,
or there will be no trade negotiations in December. Barnier is not
demanding that the UK name a specific euro amount, but it must specify
the algorithm by which a specific euro amount will be computed.
Barnier says that the amount of the divorce bill must be "clarified"
within two weeks, because the EU-27 (the 27 non-UK members of the EU)
will need time to agree to the amount, before trade negotiations can
procedures.
It seems pretty clear that if May specifies either a euro amount or an
algorithm, then some member states will say it's not enough. So if
trade negotiations are to begin at the December 14 summit, then some
way must be found to compromise on this issue, but in this
generational Crisis era, the mood is for confrontation, not
compromise.
So zero progress has been made on the second issue, the divorce bill,
in the last 17 months, to the current date.
The third issue is citizens' rights -- what happens to EU nationals
working in Britain, and to British nationals working in the EU?
Issues like medical benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will
have to be resolved. The EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said that
the UK has offered some "useful clarifications," and some progress has
been made.
However, there is one citizens' rights issue that is far from being
settled: the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Brussels
in enforcing the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK.
Barnier is saying that the ECJ is essential in guaranteeing consistent
application of case law in the UK and in the EU. But the people in
the UK who favored Brexit in the first place HATE the ECJ and the
European Parliament, and demand that Britain have control of its own
laws. So the ECJ remains a major issue.
So SOME progress has been made on the third issue, citizens' rights,
in the last 17 months, but with respect to the biggest part of it, the
role of the ECJ, zero progress has been made. Sky News and Reuters and Guardian (London)
****
**** The most intractable Brexit problem: Northern Ireland
****
The fourth issue is the border between Northern Ireland, which is part
of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (Ireland), which is part of the
EU but not of the UK.
In times past, there was a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. Those were the times of "The Troubles," and
violent clashes between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the
Catholics) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(the Protestants). These clashes were resolved by the Good Friday
Agreement (the Belfast Agreement) that resolved many issues, and
particularly eliminated the hard border, turning it into an "invisible
border" that anyone can cross at any time. That makes a lot of sense
today, when both Ireland and Northern Ireland are both part of the EU,
and hence of the single market shared by the EU and the UK.
Everyone seems to agree that a way must be found to avoid reinstating
the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. But the problem
is that if there is no hard border, then any tariffs and customs
duties between the EU and UK can be avoided simply by shipping
products across the invisible border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.
If there's going to be no hard border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland, then there has to be a hard border within the UK itself,
between Northern Ireland and England.
So the EU is demanding, in effect, that there has to be a hard border
between Northern Ireland and the island of England, Wales and
Scotland. This proposal is infuriating many officials in Northern
Ireland, and is rejected by David Davis, the UK's Brexit negotiator.
Nobody has any idea how this will be resolved.
So zero progress has been made on the fourth issue, the border between
Ireland and Northern Ireland. Irish Times and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** Can the Brexit decision be reversed? The author of the rule says it can.
****
It's been 17 months since the Brexit referendum, and so we are now
halfway to March 29, 2019, when Britain will leave the EU, according
to the rules specified in Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which
Theresa May invoked on March 29 of this year. And almost nothing has
been resolved on any of the major issues.
Perhaps the logjam can be broken by the time of the Brussels summit on
December 14-15. This would surprise everyone.
It's more likely that none of the major issues will be resolved
until total panic sets in late in 2018.
It's possible that no agreement on the issues will be met,
and the "no deal" option will occur in March 2019. In that
case, the UK and the EU like any two stranger nations, and will
follow the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules for trade that
every nation follows. In this case, at the very least, there
will be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
As more and more people realize that this entire Brexit process
is insane, a third option is suddenly being discussed: The
possibility of canceling the entire Brexit project and remaining
in the EU.
John Kerr, one of the authors of Article 50, was British ambassador to
the EU from 1990-95. He is accusing Theresa May of misleading the
British people by telling them that the Brexit decision is
irrevocable, and that it can be revoked if Britain decides to
unilaterally scrap divorce talks.
In a speech on Friday, Kerr said:
<QUOTE>"While the divorce talks proceed, the parties are
still married. Reconciliation is still possible
We still have all the rights of a member-state, including the
right to change our minds. The British people have the right to
know this – they should not be misled.
A political decision has been made, in this country, to maintain
that there can be no going back. Actually, the country still has a
free choice about whether to proceed."<END QUOTE>
In an interview, Kerr added:
<QUOTE>"The Brexiters create the impression that is because
of the way article 50 is written that having sent in a letter on
29 March 2017 we must leave automatically on 29 March 2019 at the
latest. That is not true. It is misleading to suggest that a
decision that we are taking autonomously in this country about the
timing of our departure, we are required to take by a provision of
EU treaty law."<END QUOTE>
According to an analyst I heard on RFI, if the UK tries to use this as
a bargaining ploy the it will be rejected by the EU-27. But if the UK
sincerely wants to remain in the EU, then it will be approved.
Reuters and Guardian (London) and Bloomberg
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, David Davis, Michel Barnier,
Theresa May, European Court of Justice, ECJ,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Irish Gaelics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
- The most intractable Brexit problem: Northern Ireland
- Can the Brexit decision be reversed? The author of the rule says it can.
****
**** European Union Brexit negotiator gives Britain a two-week ultimatum
****
UK Brexit negotiator David Davis and EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (AP)
It was always pretty obvious to anyone who was awake that the surprise
passage of the Brexit referendum on June 23 of last year was a
disaster in the making, and now, 17 months later, nobody has a clue
how it's supposed to work, any more than anyone did when the
referendum first passed.
There are four major issues (or groups of issues) that have to
be resolved, and almost no progress has been made on reaching
an agreement on any of them.
First, there's the trade issue, since businesses in both the UK and
the EU can make plans for conducting business in the future. Will
there be trade tariffs? Will there be product quotas? How many new
layers of bureaucracy will have to be created for a business in the UK
to sell something in the EU, or vice-versa? Britain's prime minister
Theresa May wants to start the trade negotiations right away.
But the EU is refusing to even begin talking about trade, until
the other three issues have been resolved.
So then May hoped that trade negotiations would begin by October, but
they had to be postponed. So now May is hoping to begin trade
negotiations at a UK-EU summit scheduled for December 14-15 in
Brussels, but that depends on the other three.
So zero progress has been made on the first issue, the trade issue, in
the last 17 months, and no date to start negotiations has been agreed.
Second, there's the so-called "divorce bill." This is the amount of
money that the UK must pay to the EU to honor their existing
commitments. This includes such things as pension payments to British
nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for EU
projects and social programs that Britain committed to and was
contributing to before the Brexit referendum passed.
A lot of money is involved here. At first, the UK refused to pay
anything. In recent months, Theresa May has said that she would
"honor its financial obligations," but she has not committed to any
figure. Leaks from the UK side began to mention figures around
€20 billion. However, many EU officials are demanding
€60-70 billion.
On Friday, Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, issued an
ultimatum: The UK must "clarify" what it means by saying that it will
"honor its financial commitments," and must do so within two weeks,
or there will be no trade negotiations in December. Barnier is not
demanding that the UK name a specific euro amount, but it must specify
the algorithm by which a specific euro amount will be computed.
Barnier says that the amount of the divorce bill must be "clarified"
within two weeks, because the EU-27 (the 27 non-UK members of the EU)
will need time to agree to the amount, before trade negotiations can
procedures.
It seems pretty clear that if May specifies either a euro amount or an
algorithm, then some member states will say it's not enough. So if
trade negotiations are to begin at the December 14 summit, then some
way must be found to compromise on this issue, but in this
generational Crisis era, the mood is for confrontation, not
compromise.
So zero progress has been made on the second issue, the divorce bill,
in the last 17 months, to the current date.
The third issue is citizens' rights -- what happens to EU nationals
working in Britain, and to British nationals working in the EU?
Issues like medical benefits, pensions, and freedom of travel will
have to be resolved. The EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said that
the UK has offered some "useful clarifications," and some progress has
been made.
However, there is one citizens' rights issue that is far from being
settled: the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Brussels
in enforcing the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK.
Barnier is saying that the ECJ is essential in guaranteeing consistent
application of case law in the UK and in the EU. But the people in
the UK who favored Brexit in the first place HATE the ECJ and the
European Parliament, and demand that Britain have control of its own
laws. So the ECJ remains a major issue.
So SOME progress has been made on the third issue, citizens' rights,
in the last 17 months, but with respect to the biggest part of it, the
role of the ECJ, zero progress has been made. Sky News and Reuters and Guardian (London)
****
**** The most intractable Brexit problem: Northern Ireland
****
The fourth issue is the border between Northern Ireland, which is part
of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (Ireland), which is part of the
EU but not of the UK.
In times past, there was a "hard border" between Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. Those were the times of "The Troubles," and
violent clashes between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the
Catholics) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(the Protestants). These clashes were resolved by the Good Friday
Agreement (the Belfast Agreement) that resolved many issues, and
particularly eliminated the hard border, turning it into an "invisible
border" that anyone can cross at any time. That makes a lot of sense
today, when both Ireland and Northern Ireland are both part of the EU,
and hence of the single market shared by the EU and the UK.
Everyone seems to agree that a way must be found to avoid reinstating
the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. But the problem
is that if there is no hard border, then any tariffs and customs
duties between the EU and UK can be avoided simply by shipping
products across the invisible border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.
If there's going to be no hard border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland, then there has to be a hard border within the UK itself,
between Northern Ireland and England.
So the EU is demanding, in effect, that there has to be a hard border
between Northern Ireland and the island of England, Wales and
Scotland. This proposal is infuriating many officials in Northern
Ireland, and is rejected by David Davis, the UK's Brexit negotiator.
Nobody has any idea how this will be resolved.
So zero progress has been made on the fourth issue, the border between
Ireland and Northern Ireland. Irish Times and BBC
Related Articles
- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
****
**** Can the Brexit decision be reversed? The author of the rule says it can.
****
It's been 17 months since the Brexit referendum, and so we are now
halfway to March 29, 2019, when Britain will leave the EU, according
to the rules specified in Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which
Theresa May invoked on March 29 of this year. And almost nothing has
been resolved on any of the major issues.
Perhaps the logjam can be broken by the time of the Brussels summit on
December 14-15. This would surprise everyone.
It's more likely that none of the major issues will be resolved
until total panic sets in late in 2018.
It's possible that no agreement on the issues will be met,
and the "no deal" option will occur in March 2019. In that
case, the UK and the EU like any two stranger nations, and will
follow the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules for trade that
every nation follows. In this case, at the very least, there
will be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
As more and more people realize that this entire Brexit process
is insane, a third option is suddenly being discussed: The
possibility of canceling the entire Brexit project and remaining
in the EU.
John Kerr, one of the authors of Article 50, was British ambassador to
the EU from 1990-95. He is accusing Theresa May of misleading the
British people by telling them that the Brexit decision is
irrevocable, and that it can be revoked if Britain decides to
unilaterally scrap divorce talks.
In a speech on Friday, Kerr said:
<QUOTE>"While the divorce talks proceed, the parties are
still married. Reconciliation is still possible
We still have all the rights of a member-state, including the
right to change our minds. The British people have the right to
know this – they should not be misled.
A political decision has been made, in this country, to maintain
that there can be no going back. Actually, the country still has a
free choice about whether to proceed."<END QUOTE>
In an interview, Kerr added:
<QUOTE>"The Brexiters create the impression that is because
of the way article 50 is written that having sent in a letter on
29 March 2017 we must leave automatically on 29 March 2019 at the
latest. That is not true. It is misleading to suggest that a
decision that we are taking autonomously in this country about the
timing of our departure, we are required to take by a provision of
EU treaty law."<END QUOTE>
According to an analyst I heard on RFI, if the UK tries to use this as
a bargaining ploy the it will be rejected by the EU-27. But if the UK
sincerely wants to remain in the EU, then it will be approved.
Reuters and Guardian (London) and Bloomberg
Related Articles
- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals (30-Aug-2017)
- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, David Davis, Michel Barnier,
Theresa May, European Court of Justice, ECJ,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Irish Gaelics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
