11-16-2017, 10:18 PM
A potentially-critical state, no surprise, and a surprise.
Elon, North Carolina.
Elon is usually Democrat-friendly in its polling, but even with that caveat, the polling nuimbers for President Trump are execrable for any Republican in a state that has gone Democratic in a Presidential election only once since 1976.
Governor Cooper is a Democrat, and Senators Burr and Tillis are Republicans.
Massachusetts, WBUR (NPR in Greater Boston)
Favorability 27-66. But I do not show favorability polls anymore on these maps . Probably close to approval, though.
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/...ed-5am.pdf
I'm going with likely voters.
FoX News uses objective polling. This Roy Moore debacle could be hurting the President in Alabama. Not that it is likely to hurt President Trump in 2020, it certainly isn't helping him now.
This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;11;5&AR=2;6;3&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;7&GA=4;16;1&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;20;5&IN=1;11;3&IA=1;6;3&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;7&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;3&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;7&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;7&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;3&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;3&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;5&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Trump approval, net positive
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
Trump approval, net negative
44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower
But raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;47;2&AK=2;42;5&AZ=1;51;5&AR=2;46;2&CA=1;58;7&CO=1;54;5&CT=1;59;7&DE=1;58;7&DC=1;77;7&FL=1;59;7&GA=4;48;1&HI=1;64;7&ID=2;41;5&IL=1;58;7&IN=1;45;3&IA=1;53;5&KS=2;45;5&KY=2;41;5&LA=2;37;7&MD=1;62;7&MA=1;63;9&MI=1;55;7&MN=1;57;7&MS=2;41;5&MO=2;44;5&MT=2;45;5&NV=1;52;5&NH=1;57;7&NJ=1;65;7&NM=1;53;5&NY=1;59;7&NC=1;57;7&ND=2;44;5&OH=1;49;3&OK=2;39;7&OR=1;57;7&PA=1;51;5&RI=1;67;7&SC=2;44;5&SD=2;44;5&TN=2;42;5&TX=2;44;5&UT=2;42;5&VT=1;62;7&VA=1;62;7&WA=1;59;7&WV=2;36;7&WI=1;52;5&WY=2;35;7&ME=1;52;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;45;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
(net positive for Trump)
46-49%
41-45%
40% or lower
Elon, North Carolina.
Quote:North Carolina: Elon University, Nov 6-9, 771 RV
Approve 37
Disapprove 57
R 81/10, I 35/56, D 8/92
Gov. Roy Cooper: 49/30
Sen. Richard Burr: 31/40
Sen. Thom Tillis: 28/41
Elon is usually Democrat-friendly in its polling, but even with that caveat, the polling nuimbers for President Trump are execrable for any Republican in a state that has gone Democratic in a Presidential election only once since 1976.
Governor Cooper is a Democrat, and Senators Burr and Tillis are Republicans.
Massachusetts, WBUR (NPR in Greater Boston)
Favorability 27-66. But I do not show favorability polls anymore on these maps . Probably close to approval, though.
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/...ed-5am.pdf
Quote:Alabama-Fox News:
Source
Registered voters
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald
Trump is doing as president?
NET: APPROVE 53%
NET: DISAPPROVE 45%
(Among likely voters, it's 52-47)
I'm going with likely voters.
FoX News uses objective polling. This Roy Moore debacle could be hurting the President in Alabama. Not that it is likely to hurt President Trump in 2020, it certainly isn't helping him now.
This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.
Trump approval, net positive
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
Trump approval, net negative
44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower
But raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:
Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
(net positive for Trump)
46-49%
41-45%
40% or lower
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.