11-22-2017, 06:39 PM
(11-22-2017, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding
> crisis war?
No. An interesting example is to look at the three countries,
Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. All three countries were involved
in the Hutu-Tutsi genocide of 1994, but today the Burundi
government is Hutu, while the Rwanda and Uganda governments
are Tutsi.
(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I note that Mugabe was forced to resign as Nixon was, suggesting
> there are still similarities between awakening patterns.
There are may similarities between awakening patterns.
(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Do you have an example of a first world country with an internally
> directed crisis war and subsequent bloody crackdowns, so we can
> differentiate between the effects of internal versus external
> crisis wars and the effects of development level?
It's an interesting question, but the problem is that the phrase
"first world country" is purely political.
Is China a "first world country"? They're the second largest economy
in the world, but they claim, for political reasons, that they're an
"underdeveloped country," so that they can continue to blame the
United States for every problem in the world. Is India a "first world
country"? Is Russia?
So I'll give you a useful working definition of "first world country":
A first world country is one whose political development has advanced
to the point where all the issues involving tribes and ethnic groups
in its population have been resolved to the point where they no longer
have tribal or ethnic crisis civil wars.
Under that definition, all 2nd or 3rd world countries would still be
having ethnic or tribal generational crisis civil wars, and so there
will be ethnic and tribal crackdowns throughout the entire
generational cycle, mostly beginning in the Awakening era, and
continuing to the next crisis war.
An interesting example might be the US itself, with regard to wars
with Indian tribes. Those were crisis wars for the tribes, though not
the US, but I believe that research would show that when the Awakening
eras (for the tribes) arrived, then it would fit into the framework
that I've described. But this would require a lot of research to
figure out.
A similar analysis could be performed on all the European countries
that are considered "first world" today, to identify what happened in
the decades following the Thirty Years War, the War of the Spanish
Succession, and the Napoleonic wars. Once again, a lot of research is
required.
This concept really isn't that complicated. If you have people in the
same neighborhood in the same village raping, torturing and killing
each other during a crisis civil war, then one or both sides will be
exacting bloody revenge in the ensuing decades. This is just human
nature, and it's pretty obvious.
... or responsible people decide after the Crisis is over that perpetrators of the worst deeds will be severely punished, that waging war on the losing side will be treated with pardons and amnesties (American Civil War), and that further bloodletting will not be tolerated. So long as the bloodletting continues, the Crisis is not over.
Could it be that the more advanced a country is in such measures as formal education, GDP per capita, and life expectancy that it is less likely to implode in a bloody civil war? OK, there are exceptions. India is very poor compared to what Yugoslavia was under Milosevic, but it has great ethnic and religious divides.
At one point I looked at the per capita income in various countries and found that China (a few years ago) was right in the middle. The only significant country similar in per capita income was Mexico. It would have been easy to say that the middle-income countries in income were Mexico and China, and that everything else was 'rich' or 'poor'.
Yes, China is 86 (Japanese takeover of Manchuria) to 67 (Communist takeovers of outlying areas of China) years away from its last Crisis Era, so it is likely in Crisis mode. A development bubble invariably leads to a financial panic. How will the Chinese leadership deal with that?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
