12-05-2017, 11:36 AM
Guess what I just did? I just gave a crude way of predicting who will win the Presidency in 2020 based upon partisan identity. States in gray will most likely vote as they did in 2016. None of them was close, and I expect no wild swings. If there are wild swings -- let us say Kansas going D or Oregon going R -- then such indicates major changes in statewide trends, or an electoral blowout for one Party or the other.
Based on history and the margin of 2016, I might make these guesses of probability in a 50-50 election:
State # %
AZ 3 Trump 80 Dem 20
CO 11 Dem 80 Trump 20
FL 6 about even
GA 2 Trump 85 Dem 15
IA 5 Trump 60 Dem 40
ME 12 Dem 90 Trump 10
MI 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
MN 12 Dem 80 Trump 20
NV 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
NH 11 Dem 80 Trump 20
NM 12 Dem 90 Trump 10
NC 3 Trump 80 Dem 20
OH 4 Trump 70 Dem 30
PA 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
TX 0 Trump 90 Dem 10
UT 4 Trump 50 third-party 50 Dem practically zero
VA 9 Dem 65 Trump 35
WI 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
ME-01 13 Dem near 100 Trump near zero
ME-02 8 about a 50-50 split
NE-02 1 Trump 80 Dem 20
Nebraska at-large, NE-01, NE-03... fuhgeddabouditt
Assume that all states and districts will vote for Trump in 2020 if they voted for him in 2016 and that all states in gray that voted for Hillary Clinton will vote for just about any Democrat. Ten-point swings from one election to the next are rare unless one has a five-point or larger swing overall from one election to the next.
This is a crude estimate, but it takes into account the voting history and perhaps the strength of the statewide Party. It does not depend upon current polls.
Based on history and the margin of 2016, I might make these guesses of probability in a 50-50 election:
State # %
AZ 3 Trump 80 Dem 20
CO 11 Dem 80 Trump 20
FL 6 about even
GA 2 Trump 85 Dem 15
IA 5 Trump 60 Dem 40
ME 12 Dem 90 Trump 10
MI 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
MN 12 Dem 80 Trump 20
NV 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
NH 11 Dem 80 Trump 20
NM 12 Dem 90 Trump 10
NC 3 Trump 80 Dem 20
OH 4 Trump 70 Dem 30
PA 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
TX 0 Trump 90 Dem 10
UT 4 Trump 50 third-party 50 Dem practically zero
VA 9 Dem 65 Trump 35
WI 10 Dem 70 Trump 30
ME-01 13 Dem near 100 Trump near zero
ME-02 8 about a 50-50 split
NE-02 1 Trump 80 Dem 20
Nebraska at-large, NE-01, NE-03... fuhgeddabouditt
Assume that all states and districts will vote for Trump in 2020 if they voted for him in 2016 and that all states in gray that voted for Hillary Clinton will vote for just about any Democrat. Ten-point swings from one election to the next are rare unless one has a five-point or larger swing overall from one election to the next.
This is a crude estimate, but it takes into account the voting history and perhaps the strength of the statewide Party. It does not depend upon current polls.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.