Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Unless the most recent polls indicate a reversible event (use your imagination to decide what a reversible event is), the most recent statewide polls say more than the older ones. I had thought the '56' in Colorado, the '68' in California, the '62' in Virginia, the '57' in North Carolina, and the '59' in Florida to have been outliers. The '48' in Alabama, the '60' in Iowa, and the '61' in Michigan would suggest outliers without the context of other seeming outliers. These are also (except perhaps Alabama) consistent with a President having approval in the low 30s and disapproval near 60 nationwide.

Numbers like '51' in Pennsylvania, '48' in Ohio, and '52' in Nevada and Wisconsin look obsolete.

At this point my best estimate for the ceiling of performance of an incumbent President running for re-election is 100-DIS. It's possible to cut into the 'undecided', but not to undo disapproval.

These polls suggest that Donald Trump could face a landslide loss as severe as Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. I can imagine President Trump getting nothing more than the ultra-partisan vote.

........................

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

Map for recent polls

From November 7 on.


Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

You can hardly be more definitive than with an exit poll.

Gallup had 38/55 nationally on November 7.
Arkansas 47.5-45.5, Talk Business/Hendrix University (round up both)
California USC/Dornsife 22-66 Nov 7 (superseded)

NC, Elon 37-57 Nov 9
Alabama 53-45 Fox News (superseded)
Colorado 64% unfavorable (superseded -- and a favorability poll, so I don't need it)
California, PPIC 34-63, likely voters
Minnesota, 31-54, Survey USA
Iowa, 35-60 Selzer. Des Moines Register
Alabama, 48-48. Exit poll. One could hardly be more definitive.
Tennessee, Vanderbilt University. 48-47

]\[gh=== ...  iki

(The cat just walked upon my keyboard).

Michigan, EPIC-MRA. 37-61.

The Florida poll was from October, and the Colorado poll is from PPP (56% disapproval).

For the newest of these polls, I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much. Maybe it is not so blatant in Michigan, but there I can expect Trump to do 12% worse than Cook PVI would predict. We have a failed President, as the most recent polls show.