12-18-2017, 11:08 PM
*** 19-Dec-17 World View -- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
****
![[Image: g171218b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171218b.jpg)
New satellite images show Chinese road construction in Doklam region (NDTV)
New satellite images of the region surrounding Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
reveal that China is resuming its military buildup, after pulling back
from a military standoff with India during the summer. There are
reports that China has positioned in the Doklam region more than 1,000
soldiers who are likely to remain in the area throughout winter for
the first time. China built two helicopter platforms, dozens of
houses and stores, and upgraded roads to cope with the very severe
winter.
The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16,
when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road
construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention
of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to
prevent the annexation.
There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and
Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each
other back. The descriptions of the situation in the Indian media
were restrained, to avoid inflaming the situation. The Chinese media
were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials
setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion
of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its
defeat would be even worse than India's defeat in a 1962 border war.
So when the crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August
28, and analysts could only guess at the reasons.
During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India
were on the verge of a major border war, and it seemed that India
would not back down for any reason. Part of the speculation for why
China backed down was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or
into the Indian Ocean, and China did not want a war at that time just
before an international meeting to be held in Beijing, to be followed
by the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee
is scheduled for October 19.
The prosaic explanation was that China had backed down so that they
could build up their military forces and try again. China says
that the new military infrastructure and troops are for peaceful
purposes, just as they claim for the South China Sea.
India's Lt Gen Abhay Krishna of the Eastern Command on Saturday said
the Army is totally geared up to face any situation in the Doklam
sector:
<QUOTE>"The Indian Army is always in very high spirits, we
are always ready to take on any mischief by anybody. I am not
going to name anybody specifically. Territorial integrity is
ingrained in our blood and for that we will go to any extent to
ensure the territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
Sputnik News (Moscow) and New Delhi TV and The Diplomat and Indian Express
Related Articles
****
**** Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam
****
![[Image: g171218c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171218c.jpg)
After their meeting, China's foreign minister Wang Yi used his arm to comfort India's foreign minister, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (Indian Express)
Last week, the foreign ministers of India and China met, and discussed
Doklam. India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj held talks
with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
After the December 11 meeting, Swaraj said:
<QUOTE>"Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I agreed that we should
further strengthen our mutual trust to develop a better
understanding between the two parties. And it will be better to
meet again, and without agenda, which will help us to expand our
mutual understanding."<END QUOTE>
However, Wang Yi's statement was considerably more blunt:
<QUOTE>"The matter was finally settled peacefully through
diplomatic means, reflecting the maturing of bilateral
relations. However, lessons should be learned and should be
avoided again."<END QUOTE>
What lessons was Wang referring to that should be learned? In a
speech last week, Wang said:
<QUOTE>"We handled the Indian border troops' trespass into
China's Dong Lang (Dokalam) area in our national interest, on just
grounds and with restraint.
Through diplomatic means, we engaged with the Indian side and it
withdrew its equipment and personnel."<END QUOTE>
A web site reader posted a comment about a time when he asked
a Chinese girl whether America and China were going to war:
<QUOTE>"I met a Chinese person at Toastmasters. I asked her
this. Her reply was along the lines of 'There will be no
war. America just has to grow up and learn its
place.'"<END QUOTE>
Another web site reader responded to my observation that any criticism
of China infuriates them. He wrote: "Spades don't like to be called a
Spade. And the main reason they are so touchy is because they think
they are the supreme, superior race. So the article's comparison of
China to German Nazi National Socialism is spot on." Indian Express
Related Articles
****
**** China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
****
A couple of days ago, I quoted Chinese experts who warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea.
On Sunday, an article in China state media Global Times quoted
Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang as follows:
<QUOTE>"The war on the Korean Peninsula might break out
anytime between now and March next year," Wang said, stressing
that "China should be psychologically prepared for a potential
Korean war, and the Northeast China regions should be mobilized
for that."
"Such mobilization is not to launch a war, but for defensive
purposes," he added.<END QUOTE>
There are two things of note:
In my article, I estimated that a war between the US and North Korea
would begin within 6-18 months, though 3 months is a possibility. The
time frame probably depends more on what North Korea does than
anything else.
Wang suggests that the war would be localized. That may be true for a
while, but once these things start, it would start spreading. I would
expect it to reach Europe within at most two years. Global Times
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan,
Abhay Krishna, Sushma Swaraj, Wang Yi, Wang Hongguang
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
- Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam
- China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
****
**** China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
****
New satellite images show Chinese road construction in Doklam region (NDTV)
New satellite images of the region surrounding Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
reveal that China is resuming its military buildup, after pulling back
from a military standoff with India during the summer. There are
reports that China has positioned in the Doklam region more than 1,000
soldiers who are likely to remain in the area throughout winter for
the first time. China built two helicopter platforms, dozens of
houses and stores, and upgraded roads to cope with the very severe
winter.
The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16,
when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road
construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention
of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to
prevent the annexation.
There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and
Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each
other back. The descriptions of the situation in the Indian media
were restrained, to avoid inflaming the situation. The Chinese media
were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials
setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion
of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its
defeat would be even worse than India's defeat in a 1962 border war.
So when the crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August
28, and analysts could only guess at the reasons.
During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India
were on the verge of a major border war, and it seemed that India
would not back down for any reason. Part of the speculation for why
China backed down was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or
into the Indian Ocean, and China did not want a war at that time just
before an international meeting to be held in Beijing, to be followed
by the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee
is scheduled for October 19.
The prosaic explanation was that China had backed down so that they
could build up their military forces and try again. China says
that the new military infrastructure and troops are for peaceful
purposes, just as they claim for the South China Sea.
India's Lt Gen Abhay Krishna of the Eastern Command on Saturday said
the Army is totally geared up to face any situation in the Doklam
sector:
<QUOTE>"The Indian Army is always in very high spirits, we
are always ready to take on any mischief by anybody. I am not
going to name anybody specifically. Territorial integrity is
ingrained in our blood and for that we will go to any extent to
ensure the territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
Sputnik News (Moscow) and New Delhi TV and The Diplomat and Indian Express
Related Articles
- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff (24-Sep-2017)
- China and India prepare for border war at Doklam Plateau (12-Aug-2017)
****
**** Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam
****
After their meeting, China's foreign minister Wang Yi used his arm to comfort India's foreign minister, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (Indian Express)
Last week, the foreign ministers of India and China met, and discussed
Doklam. India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj held talks
with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
After the December 11 meeting, Swaraj said:
<QUOTE>"Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I agreed that we should
further strengthen our mutual trust to develop a better
understanding between the two parties. And it will be better to
meet again, and without agenda, which will help us to expand our
mutual understanding."<END QUOTE>
However, Wang Yi's statement was considerably more blunt:
<QUOTE>"The matter was finally settled peacefully through
diplomatic means, reflecting the maturing of bilateral
relations. However, lessons should be learned and should be
avoided again."<END QUOTE>
What lessons was Wang referring to that should be learned? In a
speech last week, Wang said:
<QUOTE>"We handled the Indian border troops' trespass into
China's Dong Lang (Dokalam) area in our national interest, on just
grounds and with restraint.
Through diplomatic means, we engaged with the Indian side and it
withdrew its equipment and personnel."<END QUOTE>
A web site reader posted a comment about a time when he asked
a Chinese girl whether America and China were going to war:
<QUOTE>"I met a Chinese person at Toastmasters. I asked her
this. Her reply was along the lines of 'There will be no
war. America just has to grow up and learn its
place.'"<END QUOTE>
Another web site reader responded to my observation that any criticism
of China infuriates them. He wrote: "Spades don't like to be called a
Spade. And the main reason they are so touchy is because they think
they are the supreme, superior race. So the article's comparison of
China to German Nazi National Socialism is spot on." Indian Express
Related Articles
- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China (01-Sep-2017)
- Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China (03-Apr-2017)
****
**** China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
****
A couple of days ago, I quoted Chinese experts who warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea.
On Sunday, an article in China state media Global Times quoted
Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang as follows:
<QUOTE>"The war on the Korean Peninsula might break out
anytime between now and March next year," Wang said, stressing
that "China should be psychologically prepared for a potential
Korean war, and the Northeast China regions should be mobilized
for that."
"Such mobilization is not to launch a war, but for defensive
purposes," he added.<END QUOTE>
There are two things of note:
- According to Wang, the war is expected before March.
- Wang does not say that China would oppose the US
militarily.
In my article, I estimated that a war between the US and North Korea
would begin within 6-18 months, though 3 months is a possibility. The
time frame probably depends more on what North Korea does than
anything else.
Wang suggests that the war would be localized. That may be true for a
while, but once these things start, it would start spreading. I would
expect it to reach Europe within at most two years. Global Times
Related Articles
- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea (17-Dec-2017)
- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan,
Abhay Krishna, Sushma Swaraj, Wang Yi, Wang Hongguang
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
