12-25-2017, 10:47 PM
*** 26-Dec-17 World View -- Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Combined Syrian and Iranian forces taking control of enclave on Israel's border
****
![[Image: g171225b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171225b.jpg)
Lebanon-Israel border
The combined forces of Syria's army and Iran-backed Hezbollah militias
are fighting to take control of Beit Jinn, in the expectation that that
its fall would also have a domino effect on all the Sunni anti-Assad
militias in the entire Quneitra region of the Syrian Golan, allowing
Iran and Hezbollah to mass forces in Syria on Israel's border. Beit
Jinn is about 11 km from Israeli army positions on Mt. Hermon in
Israel, while Quneitra is 5.5 km from the Israeli border.
On one side are the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
combined with militias from Iran-backed Hezbollah, and apparently
supported by Druze militias in the region, for a total of several
thousand fighters, backed by heavy aerial bombing and heavy artillery
shelling.
On the other side are a combination of Israeli-backed "moderate" Free
Syrian Army (FSA) anti-Assad Sunni rebels, combined with Sunni
fighters from formerly al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), for
a total of several hundred fighters. The combined Sunni forces are
fighting under the banner of Itihad Quwt Jabal al Sheikh, or "Union of
fighters of Jabal al Sheikh," and they are mainly drawn from local
fighters from the area.
The Sunni groups are denying that they're close to surrender.
According to an official from one Sunni group, "The Iranian-backed
militias are trying to consolidate their sphere of influence all the
way from southwest of Damascus to the Israeli border." Reuters and Israell National News and Al Manar (Hezbollah) and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
****
**** Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria
****
With the collapse of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh) in both Iraq and Syria, and with Russia's recent
announcement that it was going to remove most of its forces from
Syria, Iran is moving to consolidate its control over parts of both
countries. Two objectives are, first, to establish a land highway
from Tehran (Iran) to both Damascus (Syria) and Beirut (Lebanon), and
second, to establish an Iranian military base in southern Syria near
the Israeli border. A further objective would be the eradication of
the "Zionist regime."
In November, Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said that
Israel will feel free to act in any way it wants in Syria, in order
to defend its own security, and particularly to prevent Iran
from establishing a military base in Syria:
<QUOTE>"We maintain absolute freedom of action and the only
considerations that guide us are the security considerations of
Israel. ... With regards to Iran, we will simply not allow for
Shi'ite consolidation and Iranian entrenchment in Syria nor will
we allow Syria to become a forward operating base against the
State of Israel. Anyone who has yet to understand that is advised
to do so."<END QUOTE>
A report in November said Iran is establishing a permanent military
base outside Al-Kiswah, located 14 kilometers (8 miles) south of
Damascus. Early in December, there were airstrikes attributed
to Israel on Al-Kiswah and other targets around Damascus.
According Ron Dermer, Israel's ambassador to the US, the chances
of a military confrontation between Israel and Iran
are growing quickly. Dermer was asked what the chance was of
a military conflict with Hezbollah in the next year:
<QUOTE>"Well, I wouldn’t put a percentage on that, but I
think it is higher than people think because of Iran’s continued
push through the region. If Iran is not rolled back in Syria, then
the chances of military confrontation are growing. I don’t want to
tell you by the year or by the month. I’d say even by the week.
Because the more they push, we have to enforce our red lines, and
you always have the prospects of an escalation, even when parties
don’t want an escalation because we will not allow Iran to
establish that presence and establish another terror front against
Israel in Syria. We’re not going to allow it to happen. So in
taking action to defend ourselves, you don’t know what could
happen. But I think it’s higher than people think."<END QUOTE>
The last major clash between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006.
The war was triggered when two Israeli soldiers were ambushed and
kidnapped while on patrol near the border with Lebanon. Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours,
with no plan, no objective,
and no idea what was going on. The war that was considered disastrous
for both sides. Jerusalem News Service and Meir Amit Intelligence Center and Reuters (12-Nov) and Politico
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Hezbollah,
Beit Jinn, Quneitra, Mount Hermon,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Itihad Quwt Jabal al Sheikh, Union of fighters of Jabal al Sheikh,
Avigdor Lieberman, Ron Dermer, Al-Kiswah
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Combined Syrian and Iranian forces taking control of enclave on Israel's border
- Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria
****
**** Combined Syrian and Iranian forces taking control of enclave on Israel's border
****
Lebanon-Israel border
The combined forces of Syria's army and Iran-backed Hezbollah militias
are fighting to take control of Beit Jinn, in the expectation that that
its fall would also have a domino effect on all the Sunni anti-Assad
militias in the entire Quneitra region of the Syrian Golan, allowing
Iran and Hezbollah to mass forces in Syria on Israel's border. Beit
Jinn is about 11 km from Israeli army positions on Mt. Hermon in
Israel, while Quneitra is 5.5 km from the Israeli border.
On one side are the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad,
combined with militias from Iran-backed Hezbollah, and apparently
supported by Druze militias in the region, for a total of several
thousand fighters, backed by heavy aerial bombing and heavy artillery
shelling.
On the other side are a combination of Israeli-backed "moderate" Free
Syrian Army (FSA) anti-Assad Sunni rebels, combined with Sunni
fighters from formerly al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), for
a total of several hundred fighters. The combined Sunni forces are
fighting under the banner of Itihad Quwt Jabal al Sheikh, or "Union of
fighters of Jabal al Sheikh," and they are mainly drawn from local
fighters from the area.
The Sunni groups are denying that they're close to surrender.
According to an official from one Sunni group, "The Iranian-backed
militias are trying to consolidate their sphere of influence all the
way from southwest of Damascus to the Israeli border." Reuters and Israell National News and Al Manar (Hezbollah) and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
- US shoots down Syrian warplane, as Iran launches missiles into Syria (19-Jun-2017)
- US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base (19-May-2017)
****
**** Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria
****
With the collapse of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh) in both Iraq and Syria, and with Russia's recent
announcement that it was going to remove most of its forces from
Syria, Iran is moving to consolidate its control over parts of both
countries. Two objectives are, first, to establish a land highway
from Tehran (Iran) to both Damascus (Syria) and Beirut (Lebanon), and
second, to establish an Iranian military base in southern Syria near
the Israeli border. A further objective would be the eradication of
the "Zionist regime."
In November, Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said that
Israel will feel free to act in any way it wants in Syria, in order
to defend its own security, and particularly to prevent Iran
from establishing a military base in Syria:
<QUOTE>"We maintain absolute freedom of action and the only
considerations that guide us are the security considerations of
Israel. ... With regards to Iran, we will simply not allow for
Shi'ite consolidation and Iranian entrenchment in Syria nor will
we allow Syria to become a forward operating base against the
State of Israel. Anyone who has yet to understand that is advised
to do so."<END QUOTE>
A report in November said Iran is establishing a permanent military
base outside Al-Kiswah, located 14 kilometers (8 miles) south of
Damascus. Early in December, there were airstrikes attributed
to Israel on Al-Kiswah and other targets around Damascus.
According Ron Dermer, Israel's ambassador to the US, the chances
of a military confrontation between Israel and Iran
are growing quickly. Dermer was asked what the chance was of
a military conflict with Hezbollah in the next year:
<QUOTE>"Well, I wouldn’t put a percentage on that, but I
think it is higher than people think because of Iran’s continued
push through the region. If Iran is not rolled back in Syria, then
the chances of military confrontation are growing. I don’t want to
tell you by the year or by the month. I’d say even by the week.
Because the more they push, we have to enforce our red lines, and
you always have the prospects of an escalation, even when parties
don’t want an escalation because we will not allow Iran to
establish that presence and establish another terror front against
Israel in Syria. We’re not going to allow it to happen. So in
taking action to defend ourselves, you don’t know what could
happen. But I think it’s higher than people think."<END QUOTE>
The last major clash between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006.
The war was triggered when two Israeli soldiers were ambushed and
kidnapped while on patrol near the border with Lebanon. Israel panicked and launched the Lebanon war with Hezbollah within four hours,
with no plan, no objective,
and no idea what was going on. The war that was considered disastrous
for both sides. Jerusalem News Service and Meir Amit Intelligence Center and Reuters (12-Nov) and Politico
Related Articles
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran, Hezbollah,
Beit Jinn, Quneitra, Mount Hermon,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Itihad Quwt Jabal al Sheikh, Union of fighters of Jabal al Sheikh,
Avigdor Lieberman, Ron Dermer, Al-Kiswah
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
