Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

ARG, New Hampshire. 26% approval, 66% disapproval. (I would not show this update except that the stats for New Hampshire are so simply horrific for the President.

One small state, but monstrous statistics.The state is nearly neutral in PVI, but it is about 16% away from being 50-50 in a 50-50 election.  

Minnesota. PPP.  44-53. Trump actually has a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement here. 44-53. Minnesota seems to never swing much. Trump seems to do unusually well for a Republican there. Not so many people as tenants? I would guess that if one is a tenant, Donald Trump reminds one of his landlord.  

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...122817.pdf

Franken approval, 53% - 42%. Not really bad, but I'm guessing that without the exposure of his bad behavior he might have an approval rating in the 60s.

Florida, Gravis... it's a favorability poll. Sometimes 'favorability' is asked in a manner that is practically identical to approval, but I found no link. it does not look good for the President.

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  

 


Fifteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.