01-02-2018, 11:27 PM
*** 3-Jan-18 World View -- US-Pakistan relations hit major crossroad, as US cuts aid
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** In scathing criticism of Pakistan, Trump administration cuts $255 million in aid
****
![[Image: g180102b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180102b.jpg)
Pakistan army soldiers board an army vehicle in Peshawar on June 24, 2017 (AFP)
In a tweet posted on Monday, Donald Trump wrote:
<QUOTE>"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more
than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they
have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders
as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in
Afghanistan, with little help. No more!"<END QUOTE>
On Tuesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley at the United Nations
anncouned that Washington would withhold $255 million in assistance
to Pakistan. Haley said, "There are clear reasons for this. Pakistan
has played a double game for years. They work with us at times, and
they also harbor the terrorists that attack our troops in Afghanistan.
That game is not acceptable to this administration. We expect far more
cooperation from Pakistan in the fight against terrorism." Haley said
that the US may take additional steps.
Although Pakistani officials were infuriated by the tweet, a three-hour
meeting of Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC) decided that
Pakistan must not give any "knee jerk" reaction to the tweet, and they
reached the conclusion that despite "unwarranted allegations, Pakistan
cannot act in haste."
Pakistan's government did summon the US ambassador and register a
protest, but did not take the next logical step of recalling its own
ambassador from Washington.
The NSC statement said that the committee was of the firm view that
the real challenges in Afghanistan were political infighting, massive
corruption, phenomenal growth of drug production and expansion of
ungoverned spaces inside the country full of sanctuaries for multiple
international terrorist organizations posing a serious and direct
threat to Afghanistan, its neighbors and the entire region. Reuters and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and CNN
****
**** US-Pakistan relations at a crossroad
****
Tuesday's tweet by Trump could not have been a surprise, as it was the
culmination of any number of announcements data back years.
In a surprise visit to Kabul, Afghanistan, three weeks ago, vice
president Mike Pence warned that it was putting Pakistan "on notice":
<QUOTE>"Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our
efforts in Afghanistan. The days to shelter terrorists have
gone. It has much to lose by continuing to harbor terrorists.
For too long Pakistan has provided safe haven to the Taliban and
many terrorist organizations, but those days are over. President
Trump has put Pakistan on notice."<END QUOTE>
Major Geneneral Asif Ghafoor, Pakistan's chief military spokesperson,
responded angrily to Pence's claims, saying that there was no
organized infrastructure of any terrorist outfit inside Pakistan.
Ghafoor said that Pakistan will no long allow itself to be bullied by
the United States, and blamed India for the problems in Afghanistan:
<QUOTE>"We have fought an imposed and imported war twice in
Pakistan, and now we cannot do any more for anyone.
The US needs to check India’s anti-Pakistan role not only from
inside of Afghanistan but also through the enhanced and increased
ceasefire violations along the LoC [Line of Control in Kashmir]
and the Working Boundary so that Pakistan remains focused on peace
not only in Pakistan but beyond."<END QUOTE>
Ghafoor read out this statement in English, to make it clear that he
was directing it at the United States.
The US has been giving aid to Pakistan ever since 9/11/2001, when
America came to depend on Pakistan's help in the war against the
Taliban in Afghanistan. Annual aid to Pakistan peaked at $3.5 billion
in 2011, but the relationship with Pakistan was strained by the 2011
raid on al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad that
revealed that he had been hiding in plain sight in Pakistan.
Pakistani officials claimed surprise that bin Laden was hiding out in
Pakistan, but those denials have never been believed. Since then,
both the Obama administration and Congress have been cutting aid to
Pakistan. Funding fell below $1 billion in the 2016 budget request.
So Trump's decision this week to very publicly cut aid to Pakistan is
not something out of the blue, but has been coming for several years.
China has previously said that it would make up for any aid reduction
by the US.
This bizarre relationship between the US and Pakistan can only be
understood in the context of the war in Afghanistan. Trump claims
that the US is going to defeat the Taliban and win the war in
Afghanistan, but as I've written in detail in the past, that's
completely impossible. There is no possible victory in Afghanistan.
I wrote a lengthy analysis in August in "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'"
. As I pointed out then,
and numerous times in the past, Trump's foreign policy strategy is
completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics analysis of the
world. As long time readers are aware, I've worked on several
projects in the past with Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief adviser.
Bannon is an expert on world history and military history and, through
our association, is also an expert on Generational Dynamics theory,
whose principles he's passed on to Donald Trump. Mainstream
journalists and analysts are mostly completely baffled by Trump's
foreign policy decisions mainly because they have no clue about
generational theory.
So Trump knows that we're headed inevitably for war with North Korea,
China and Pakistan, and his policies are guided by that reality.
Trump's very public scathing criticism of Pakistan, and the decision
to cut aid, make perfect sense if you realize that there's no point in
paying money to a country that you're going to be fighting in a war.
Pakistan's leaders are generally contemptuous of America's leaders,
but now they've come to a crossroads and have to make a decision. On
the one hand, they want American aid, and they want access to a number
of American weapons systems. Trump's harsh message can be paraphrased
as follows: Help us in Afghanistan a lot more than you have, and try
to win back enough trust to get what you want from America, or else
continue as before on the path eventually to cutting all ties with
America.
The fact that Pakistan's government did not yet recall its ambassador
to Washington indicates that they realize that this is no easy
decision. Geo TV (Pakistan, 22-Dec) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy (23-Aug)
Related Articles
****
**** Ohhhhhhhh noooooo! Chocolate may be extinct by 2050!
****
![[Image: g180102c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180102c.jpg)
According to NOAA, chocolate promotes science literacy among children by forming dinosaurs. (Daniele Civello)
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), climate change will force the plants that produce chocolate
into extinction by 2050. According to the NOAA, they'll die off
because the rain forests are disappearing.
Chocolate extinct! Thank goodness I won't be around to see that!
CBS News and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, National Security Committee, NSC,
Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Afghanistan, Asif Ghafoor, Osama bin Laden,
Steve Bannon, China,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, chocolate
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- In scathing criticism of Pakistan, Trump administration cuts $255 million in aid
- US-Pakistan relations at a crossroad
- Ohhhhhhhh noooooo! Chocolate may be extinct by 2050!
****
**** In scathing criticism of Pakistan, Trump administration cuts $255 million in aid
****
Pakistan army soldiers board an army vehicle in Peshawar on June 24, 2017 (AFP)
In a tweet posted on Monday, Donald Trump wrote:
<QUOTE>"The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more
than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they
have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders
as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in
Afghanistan, with little help. No more!"<END QUOTE>
On Tuesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley at the United Nations
anncouned that Washington would withhold $255 million in assistance
to Pakistan. Haley said, "There are clear reasons for this. Pakistan
has played a double game for years. They work with us at times, and
they also harbor the terrorists that attack our troops in Afghanistan.
That game is not acceptable to this administration. We expect far more
cooperation from Pakistan in the fight against terrorism." Haley said
that the US may take additional steps.
Although Pakistani officials were infuriated by the tweet, a three-hour
meeting of Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC) decided that
Pakistan must not give any "knee jerk" reaction to the tweet, and they
reached the conclusion that despite "unwarranted allegations, Pakistan
cannot act in haste."
Pakistan's government did summon the US ambassador and register a
protest, but did not take the next logical step of recalling its own
ambassador from Washington.
The NSC statement said that the committee was of the firm view that
the real challenges in Afghanistan were political infighting, massive
corruption, phenomenal growth of drug production and expansion of
ungoverned spaces inside the country full of sanctuaries for multiple
international terrorist organizations posing a serious and direct
threat to Afghanistan, its neighbors and the entire region. Reuters and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and CNN
****
**** US-Pakistan relations at a crossroad
****
Tuesday's tweet by Trump could not have been a surprise, as it was the
culmination of any number of announcements data back years.
In a surprise visit to Kabul, Afghanistan, three weeks ago, vice
president Mike Pence warned that it was putting Pakistan "on notice":
<QUOTE>"Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our
efforts in Afghanistan. The days to shelter terrorists have
gone. It has much to lose by continuing to harbor terrorists.
For too long Pakistan has provided safe haven to the Taliban and
many terrorist organizations, but those days are over. President
Trump has put Pakistan on notice."<END QUOTE>
Major Geneneral Asif Ghafoor, Pakistan's chief military spokesperson,
responded angrily to Pence's claims, saying that there was no
organized infrastructure of any terrorist outfit inside Pakistan.
Ghafoor said that Pakistan will no long allow itself to be bullied by
the United States, and blamed India for the problems in Afghanistan:
<QUOTE>"We have fought an imposed and imported war twice in
Pakistan, and now we cannot do any more for anyone.
The US needs to check India’s anti-Pakistan role not only from
inside of Afghanistan but also through the enhanced and increased
ceasefire violations along the LoC [Line of Control in Kashmir]
and the Working Boundary so that Pakistan remains focused on peace
not only in Pakistan but beyond."<END QUOTE>
Ghafoor read out this statement in English, to make it clear that he
was directing it at the United States.
The US has been giving aid to Pakistan ever since 9/11/2001, when
America came to depend on Pakistan's help in the war against the
Taliban in Afghanistan. Annual aid to Pakistan peaked at $3.5 billion
in 2011, but the relationship with Pakistan was strained by the 2011
raid on al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad that
revealed that he had been hiding in plain sight in Pakistan.
Pakistani officials claimed surprise that bin Laden was hiding out in
Pakistan, but those denials have never been believed. Since then,
both the Obama administration and Congress have been cutting aid to
Pakistan. Funding fell below $1 billion in the 2016 budget request.
So Trump's decision this week to very publicly cut aid to Pakistan is
not something out of the blue, but has been coming for several years.
China has previously said that it would make up for any aid reduction
by the US.
This bizarre relationship between the US and Pakistan can only be
understood in the context of the war in Afghanistan. Trump claims
that the US is going to defeat the Taliban and win the war in
Afghanistan, but as I've written in detail in the past, that's
completely impossible. There is no possible victory in Afghanistan.
I wrote a lengthy analysis in August in "23-Aug-17 World View -- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory'"
. As I pointed out then,
and numerous times in the past, Trump's foreign policy strategy is
completely consistent with the Generational Dynamics analysis of the
world. As long time readers are aware, I've worked on several
projects in the past with Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief adviser.
Bannon is an expert on world history and military history and, through
our association, is also an expert on Generational Dynamics theory,
whose principles he's passed on to Donald Trump. Mainstream
journalists and analysts are mostly completely baffled by Trump's
foreign policy decisions mainly because they have no clue about
generational theory.
So Trump knows that we're headed inevitably for war with North Korea,
China and Pakistan, and his policies are guided by that reality.
Trump's very public scathing criticism of Pakistan, and the decision
to cut aid, make perfect sense if you realize that there's no point in
paying money to a country that you're going to be fighting in a war.
Pakistan's leaders are generally contemptuous of America's leaders,
but now they've come to a crossroads and have to make a decision. On
the one hand, they want American aid, and they want access to a number
of American weapons systems. Trump's harsh message can be paraphrased
as follows: Help us in Afghanistan a lot more than you have, and try
to win back enough trust to get what you want from America, or else
continue as before on the path eventually to cutting all ties with
America.
The fact that Pakistan's government did not yet recall its ambassador
to Washington indicates that they realize that this is no easy
decision. Geo TV (Pakistan, 22-Dec) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy (23-Aug)
Related Articles
- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
- Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
- Massive Kabul bombing on Monday leaves US Afghan policy in tatters (25-Jul-2017)
****
**** Ohhhhhhhh noooooo! Chocolate may be extinct by 2050!
****
According to NOAA, chocolate promotes science literacy among children by forming dinosaurs. (Daniele Civello)
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), climate change will force the plants that produce chocolate
into extinction by 2050. According to the NOAA, they'll die off
because the rain forests are disappearing.
Chocolate extinct! Thank goodness I won't be around to see that!
CBS News and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, National Security Committee, NSC,
Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Afghanistan, Asif Ghafoor, Osama bin Laden,
Steve Bannon, China,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, chocolate
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
