Gallup data from all polls in 2017 (average assumed in mid-July) in the form of a map:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;58;7&AK=2;56;7&AZ=1;47;5&AR=2;56;7&CA=1;35;7&CO=1;41;7&CT=1;37;7&DE=1;42;7&DC=1;11;7&FL=1;47;5&GA=1;47;5&HI=1;40;7&ID=2;58;7&IL=1;38;7&IN=1;49;2&IA=1;48;2&KS=2;53;5&KY=2;55;7&LA=2;55;7&MD=1;35;7&MA=1;32;7&MI=1;45;7&MN=1;42;7&MS=2;54;5&MO=2;52*;2&MT=2;55;7&NV=1;47;5&NH=1;44;7&NJ=1;39;7&NM=1;41;7&NY=1;37;7&NC=1;46;5&ND=2;61;7&OH=4;50*;1&OK=2;60;7&OR=1;41;7&PA=1;47;5&RI=1;38;7&SC=2;54;5&SD=2;58;7&TN=2;56;7&TX=1;46;5&UT=2;53;5&VT=1;31;7&VA=1;43;7&WA=1;40;7&WV=2;65;7&WI=1;45;7&WY=2;64;7&ME=1;55;7&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=2;53;5&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
*Approval lower than disapproval in this state
for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected ceiling for the vote for Donald Trump in 2020, which is 100-DIS. Disapproval is far stickier downward, and 100-DIS is far sticker upward than approval is either way. Yes, if you support the President, it really is that bad and you might as well get used to that. Yes, disapproval can increase, and that will mess up campaigning and canvassing for your side. What was true for Obama in 2012 will also be true for Trump; the numbers for Trump are far worse on the whole for him than they were for Obama eight years ago.
Here is more recent data. Note that I add back a poll of Florida from October, as this is newer than the Gallup data.
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;48;2&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;53;5&CA=1;40;7&CO=1;37;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=1;41;7&GA=1;41;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;49;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;57;7&LA=4;50;1&MD=1;35;7&MA=1;35;7&MI=1;46;5&MN=1;53;2&MS=2;53;7&MO=2;53;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;34;7&NJ=1;34;7&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;33;7&NC=1;50;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;48;2&OK=2;62;9&OR=0;7;5&6&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=2;53;5&TX=0;38;5&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;43;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=2;52;5&WI=1;43;7&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Now here is polling from October or later (I am adding a poll of Florida because this is newer than the data whose age averages about six months now). Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.
Note that polls in the Mountain (Appalachia and the Ozarks) and Deep South (Louisiana through Georgia) all show drops in approval ratings and rises in disapproval ratings for the President from the average of 2017. I say nothing about South Carolina because I have no recent poll of the state; Virginia has more in common with Michigan in politics than it has with any other former Confederate state except perhaps Florida; Florida has huge numbers of Yankee retirees who brought their politics with them from Up North and people of Central American and Caribbean origin; Texas straddles the Deep South, the Midwest, and the Southwest -- and it is difficult to determine what region five of its six largest cities are in (OK, El Paso is clearly Southwestern, being closer to San Diego than to Beaumont or Texarkana). I do not have a recent approval poll of Texas not from an advocacy group).
*Approval lower than disapproval in this state
for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected ceiling for the vote for Donald Trump in 2020, which is 100-DIS. Disapproval is far stickier downward, and 100-DIS is far sticker upward than approval is either way. Yes, if you support the President, it really is that bad and you might as well get used to that. Yes, disapproval can increase, and that will mess up campaigning and canvassing for your side. What was true for Obama in 2012 will also be true for Trump; the numbers for Trump are far worse on the whole for him than they were for Obama eight years ago.
Here is more recent data. Note that I add back a poll of Florida from October, as this is newer than the Gallup data.
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
Now here is polling from October or later (I am adding a poll of Florida because this is newer than the data whose age averages about six months now). Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.
Note that polls in the Mountain (Appalachia and the Ozarks) and Deep South (Louisiana through Georgia) all show drops in approval ratings and rises in disapproval ratings for the President from the average of 2017. I say nothing about South Carolina because I have no recent poll of the state; Virginia has more in common with Michigan in politics than it has with any other former Confederate state except perhaps Florida; Florida has huge numbers of Yankee retirees who brought their politics with them from Up North and people of Central American and Caribbean origin; Texas straddles the Deep South, the Midwest, and the Southwest -- and it is difficult to determine what region five of its six largest cities are in (OK, El Paso is clearly Southwestern, being closer to San Diego than to Beaumont or Texarkana). I do not have a recent approval poll of Texas not from an advocacy group).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.