More on an Iowa poll because it could have put my model in question.
It does not change the map, but I see that my assumption that "disapproval is a way of saying I will not vote for him" 51% disapprove, and 48% 'will definitely vote for another candidate'. Iowa is close to the national mean, and it looks as if 2016 was a fluke win for Trump in Iowa (as in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well). It would not take many of the 'I would consider voting for another candidate' to give the Democratic nominee a majority in an essentially binary election, or the plurality in the event that there should be a significant challenger to Donald Trump on the Right side of the political spectrum.
Guessing how this relates to several thresholds of the potential vote,
1. 26% of the electorate is already certain that it will vote for Trump in 2020.
26% will definitely vote for Trump, which is an absolute floor.
38% of Iowans voted for Goldwater in 1964, and 40.5% of Iowa voters went for McGovern in 1972. That is a reasonable floor for a politician rejected nationwide, as that is close to the percentage of the national vote that those two got. But Trump is an incumbent. The two biggest failures as President as shown by their electoral defeats in binary races (Ross Perot probably handed the 1992 election to Bill Clinton on silver platter) were Hoover in 1932 (who got close to 40% of the vote) and Carter in 1980 (who got 38% of the binary vote, but there was John Anderson getting 8% of the Iowa vote). Almost any Presidential nominee will get about 38% of the vote nationwide even after a poor performance as President or being a weak challenger to an incumbent who has been somewhat successful.
44% is his approval. That has been as low as 39% with this pollster.
46% either will definitely vote for Trump or might. That obviously will not be enough.
100-DIS is my estimate of a ceiling for the President: 49%. Sure, he can win at that level (or at 46%) if the left side of the electorate has a strong third-party or independent candidate. I cannot yet rule such out, but I see no indication of such already. It is far more likely that someone will challenge Donald Trump as a 'genuine conservative' or someone shorn of demagoguery and ethnic bigotry. Yes, one can have conservatism without homophobia, misogyny, racism, religious bigotry, and anti-intellectualism, but Republicans have no viable alternatives to Trump should he run in 2020. 2024? Too late for this time. My model crudely predicts that the Democratic nominee will get at least 51% of the Iowa vote base3d on the assumption that those who disapprove will vote for someone else.
This is not to say that the President will not do worse in Iowa. If 20% would consider voting for someone else, then I would have to split that at best (for a Democrat) about 3 to 1, as that part of the electorate is clearly to the right of center. But if even 75% of those considering voting for someone else still go to Trump, then the President ends up with about 41% of the Iowa vote.... which is just a bit better than Carter did in 1980 in his troubled bid for re-election.
Quote:Trump approval: 44/51 (-7)
In the 2020 election, do you anticipate you will definitely vote for President Trump, consider voting for another candidate, or definitely vote for another candidate?
(Based on likely voters in the 2020 general election; n=656. MoE = ± 3.8 percentage points.)
26% Definitely Trump
20% Consider voting for another candidate
48% Definitely vote for another candidate
5% Not sure
The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 28-31 for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...316063002/
It does not change the map, but I see that my assumption that "disapproval is a way of saying I will not vote for him" 51% disapprove, and 48% 'will definitely vote for another candidate'. Iowa is close to the national mean, and it looks as if 2016 was a fluke win for Trump in Iowa (as in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well). It would not take many of the 'I would consider voting for another candidate' to give the Democratic nominee a majority in an essentially binary election, or the plurality in the event that there should be a significant challenger to Donald Trump on the Right side of the political spectrum.
Guessing how this relates to several thresholds of the potential vote,
1. 26% of the electorate is already certain that it will vote for Trump in 2020.
26% will definitely vote for Trump, which is an absolute floor.
38% of Iowans voted for Goldwater in 1964, and 40.5% of Iowa voters went for McGovern in 1972. That is a reasonable floor for a politician rejected nationwide, as that is close to the percentage of the national vote that those two got. But Trump is an incumbent. The two biggest failures as President as shown by their electoral defeats in binary races (Ross Perot probably handed the 1992 election to Bill Clinton on silver platter) were Hoover in 1932 (who got close to 40% of the vote) and Carter in 1980 (who got 38% of the binary vote, but there was John Anderson getting 8% of the Iowa vote). Almost any Presidential nominee will get about 38% of the vote nationwide even after a poor performance as President or being a weak challenger to an incumbent who has been somewhat successful.
44% is his approval. That has been as low as 39% with this pollster.
46% either will definitely vote for Trump or might. That obviously will not be enough.
100-DIS is my estimate of a ceiling for the President: 49%. Sure, he can win at that level (or at 46%) if the left side of the electorate has a strong third-party or independent candidate. I cannot yet rule such out, but I see no indication of such already. It is far more likely that someone will challenge Donald Trump as a 'genuine conservative' or someone shorn of demagoguery and ethnic bigotry. Yes, one can have conservatism without homophobia, misogyny, racism, religious bigotry, and anti-intellectualism, but Republicans have no viable alternatives to Trump should he run in 2020. 2024? Too late for this time. My model crudely predicts that the Democratic nominee will get at least 51% of the Iowa vote base3d on the assumption that those who disapprove will vote for someone else.
This is not to say that the President will not do worse in Iowa. If 20% would consider voting for someone else, then I would have to split that at best (for a Democrat) about 3 to 1, as that part of the electorate is clearly to the right of center. But if even 75% of those considering voting for someone else still go to Trump, then the President ends up with about 41% of the Iowa vote.... which is just a bit better than Carter did in 1980 in his troubled bid for re-election.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.