03-02-2018, 11:23 PM
*** 3-Mar-18 World View -- Turkey suffers military setback in 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey suffers military setback in 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin Syria
****
![[Image: g180302b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180302b.jpg)
Turkish special forces being deployed to Afrin, Syria, last month (RT)
Turkey's forces suffered heavy losses on Thursday during its
"Operation Olive Branch" in Afrin, with the military announcing that
eight soldiers were killed and 13 more wounded, making this the
deadliest day for Turkey since the Afrin operation began on January
20. Turkey's defense minister announced that, since the operation
began, a total of 41 Turkish soldiers had been killed.
Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated
large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has
conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's
government for thirty years. The US and the EU also consider the PKK
to be a terrorist organization, though not the entire YPG.
The Kurds have set as a goal the creation of an independent state of
Rojava along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Turkey considers
that objective to be an existential threat.
Turkey launched the Afrin operation to thwart a YPG objective to
establish the state of Rojava. Turkish troops are backed by an
estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in the Free Syrian Army (FSA),
while the YPG is estimated to have about 8,000 to 10,000 fighters in
Afrin. According to Turkey's defense minister, 116 fighters from the
FSA have been killed since the operation began. Turkey also claims
that 2,295 "YPG - PKK - ISIS terrorists" have also been killed.
According to reports, the Turkish forces that were killed on Thursday
were special forces units that had been recently deployed to Afrin.
They had been chosen because of their previous urban warfare
experience in fighting the PKK. The YPG fighters ambushed the Turkish
forces by hiding out in tunnels, and then emerged from the tunnels for
the ambush.
Despite the deaths of Turkish forces, the operation in Afrin appears
to have unified the Turkish citizens, at least the citizens who aren't
Kurds. Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition
Republican People’s Party (CHP) is fully supporting the operation:
<QUOTE>"We trust our army, we have no doubt that they will
succeed in their mission to fight terror. ...
We cover the coffins of our martyrs with a Turkish flag. My
citizens, let’s hang the Turkish flag on our homes, offices and
working places until our martyrs rest in peace."<END QUOTE>
However, Kiliçdaroglu has previously said that he does not want
Turkish troops to enter Afrin's city center:
<QUOTE>"I do not approve of an offensive into the center of
Afrin because it shouldn’t be about capturing a city. Why did we
enter the Afrin district [in the first place]? To eliminate terror
organizations on our border."<END QUOTE>
On Friday, a number of CHP lawmakers went onto their social media
accounts, and changed their pictures to an image of the Turkish flag.
France 24 and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
****
**** Turkey doubles down on Afrin-Manbij operation, despite US opposition
****
The fact that the operation to take control of Afrin is taking several
months instead of several days has the advantage that it has postponed
a possible major confrontation for several months, and possibly
forever.
Once the Turkish army has taken control of Afrin, the plan is to move
farther east and perform the same operation in the town of Manbij.
The problem is that there are also US troops around Manbij. The YPG
has been the main fighting force to defeat the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), backed up by weapons, airstrikes and
training by US forces.
Turkey does not distinguish between the YPG, the PKK and ISIS,
considering all of them to be terrorists. According to Turkey's
deputy prime minister Hakan Cavusoglu, the PKK-YPG terror group have
committed many war crimes:
<QUOTE>"The recruitment of children, which is one of the six
grave violations identified by the UN resolutions, is just one of
the crimes against humanity committed by PKK/YPG.
PKK/YPG has a bloody record of using land mines and toxic gas,
using civilians as human shields, and targeting hospitals, refugee
camps and civilian residential areas."<END QUOTE>
In mid-February, American Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a time when Turkey was
saying that the US-Turkey relationship was at a "critical point."
Erdogan is particularly infuriated by the weapons and support that the
US gives to the so-called "YPG-PKK terrorists." Turkey's foreign
minister said, "Ties with the U.S. are at a very critical point. We
will either fix these relations or they will break completely."
At the time, Tillerson said:
<QUOTE>"We are keenly aware of the legitimate security
concerns of Turkey, our coalition partner and NATO ally. We will
continue to be completely transparent with Turkey about our
efforts in Syria to defeat ISIS, and we stand by our NATO ally in
its counterterrorism efforts."<END QUOTE>
Turkey took that statement to mean that the US and Turkey are allies,
and that the US and the YPG are NOT allies.
On Thursday, an unnamed US official reinforced Tillerson's comment:
<QUOTE>"We are very careful not to use that word [alliance]
for the YPG. We are not using the YPG as an ally of the U.S. Our
ally is Turkey and that is something that the Secretary [of State
Rex] Tillerson emphasized in his remarks in Ankara. We have a
long-term, enduring, historic alliance and partnership with Turkey
and that is not going to change.
The U.S. has made it clear from the beginning that our military
cooperation with the YPG was a temporary, tactical arrangement
aimed entirely at combating [ISIS]. We have made it clear that
once ISIS was defeated we would have no plans for an enduring
military relationship with the YPG and certainly no plans for an
enduring political relationship with the Democratic Union Party
[PYD]. That has not changed."<END QUOTE>
On Friday, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim indicated that
Turkey is doubling down on the fight with YPG, and that the fight
would go beyond Afrin:
<QUOTE>"This operation based on international law and our
legitimate rights will continue to the end. [Giving] any day or
date [when it will end] is out of the question here.
[The operation will end after] the complete wiping out and
neutralization of terror organizations. Wherever there is
terrorism, they will be our target."<END QUOTE>
Right now, Turkey's forces appear to be bogged down in Afrin, and this
could mean that Turkey's plans to move on to Manbij will never be
realized.
The US military says: "We remain committed to fulfilling our promises
regarding the YPG presence in Manbij. It is a city with a lot of
people and somebody has to provide security there but our intention is
that will not be the YPG."
That leaves open the question of who will provide security for Manbij.
If it's not the US, and it's not the YPG, and it's not the Turks, then
perhaps it's a local Arab militia, or perhaps it's Bashar al-Assad's
army. This remains to be seen. Anadolu and Washington Examiner and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Republican People’s Party, CHP,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afrin, Manbij, Rojava, Rex Tillerson, Binali Yildirim,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey suffers military setback in 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin Syria
- Turkey doubles down on Afrin-Manbij operation, despite US opposition
****
**** Turkey suffers military setback in 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin Syria
****
Turkish special forces being deployed to Afrin, Syria, last month (RT)
Turkey's forces suffered heavy losses on Thursday during its
"Operation Olive Branch" in Afrin, with the military announcing that
eight soldiers were killed and 13 more wounded, making this the
deadliest day for Turkey since the Afrin operation began on January
20. Turkey's defense minister announced that, since the operation
began, a total of 41 Turkish soldiers had been killed.
Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated
large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has
conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's
government for thirty years. The US and the EU also consider the PKK
to be a terrorist organization, though not the entire YPG.
The Kurds have set as a goal the creation of an independent state of
Rojava along Syria's northern border with Turkey. Turkey considers
that objective to be an existential threat.
Turkey launched the Afrin operation to thwart a YPG objective to
establish the state of Rojava. Turkish troops are backed by an
estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in the Free Syrian Army (FSA),
while the YPG is estimated to have about 8,000 to 10,000 fighters in
Afrin. According to Turkey's defense minister, 116 fighters from the
FSA have been killed since the operation began. Turkey also claims
that 2,295 "YPG - PKK - ISIS terrorists" have also been killed.
According to reports, the Turkish forces that were killed on Thursday
were special forces units that had been recently deployed to Afrin.
They had been chosen because of their previous urban warfare
experience in fighting the PKK. The YPG fighters ambushed the Turkish
forces by hiding out in tunnels, and then emerged from the tunnels for
the ambush.
Despite the deaths of Turkish forces, the operation in Afrin appears
to have unified the Turkish citizens, at least the citizens who aren't
Kurds. Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition
Republican People’s Party (CHP) is fully supporting the operation:
<QUOTE>"We trust our army, we have no doubt that they will
succeed in their mission to fight terror. ...
We cover the coffins of our martyrs with a Turkish flag. My
citizens, let’s hang the Turkish flag on our homes, offices and
working places until our martyrs rest in peace."<END QUOTE>
However, Kiliçdaroglu has previously said that he does not want
Turkish troops to enter Afrin's city center:
<QUOTE>"I do not approve of an offensive into the center of
Afrin because it shouldn’t be about capturing a city. Why did we
enter the Afrin district [in the first place]? To eliminate terror
organizations on our border."<END QUOTE>
On Friday, a number of CHP lawmakers went onto their social media
accounts, and changed their pictures to an image of the Turkish flag.
France 24 and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
****
**** Turkey doubles down on Afrin-Manbij operation, despite US opposition
****
The fact that the operation to take control of Afrin is taking several
months instead of several days has the advantage that it has postponed
a possible major confrontation for several months, and possibly
forever.
Once the Turkish army has taken control of Afrin, the plan is to move
farther east and perform the same operation in the town of Manbij.
The problem is that there are also US troops around Manbij. The YPG
has been the main fighting force to defeat the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), backed up by weapons, airstrikes and
training by US forces.
Turkey does not distinguish between the YPG, the PKK and ISIS,
considering all of them to be terrorists. According to Turkey's
deputy prime minister Hakan Cavusoglu, the PKK-YPG terror group have
committed many war crimes:
<QUOTE>"The recruitment of children, which is one of the six
grave violations identified by the UN resolutions, is just one of
the crimes against humanity committed by PKK/YPG.
PKK/YPG has a bloody record of using land mines and toxic gas,
using civilians as human shields, and targeting hospitals, refugee
camps and civilian residential areas."<END QUOTE>
In mid-February, American Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a time when Turkey was
saying that the US-Turkey relationship was at a "critical point."
Erdogan is particularly infuriated by the weapons and support that the
US gives to the so-called "YPG-PKK terrorists." Turkey's foreign
minister said, "Ties with the U.S. are at a very critical point. We
will either fix these relations or they will break completely."
At the time, Tillerson said:
<QUOTE>"We are keenly aware of the legitimate security
concerns of Turkey, our coalition partner and NATO ally. We will
continue to be completely transparent with Turkey about our
efforts in Syria to defeat ISIS, and we stand by our NATO ally in
its counterterrorism efforts."<END QUOTE>
Turkey took that statement to mean that the US and Turkey are allies,
and that the US and the YPG are NOT allies.
On Thursday, an unnamed US official reinforced Tillerson's comment:
<QUOTE>"We are very careful not to use that word [alliance]
for the YPG. We are not using the YPG as an ally of the U.S. Our
ally is Turkey and that is something that the Secretary [of State
Rex] Tillerson emphasized in his remarks in Ankara. We have a
long-term, enduring, historic alliance and partnership with Turkey
and that is not going to change.
The U.S. has made it clear from the beginning that our military
cooperation with the YPG was a temporary, tactical arrangement
aimed entirely at combating [ISIS]. We have made it clear that
once ISIS was defeated we would have no plans for an enduring
military relationship with the YPG and certainly no plans for an
enduring political relationship with the Democratic Union Party
[PYD]. That has not changed."<END QUOTE>
On Friday, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim indicated that
Turkey is doubling down on the fight with YPG, and that the fight
would go beyond Afrin:
<QUOTE>"This operation based on international law and our
legitimate rights will continue to the end. [Giving] any day or
date [when it will end] is out of the question here.
[The operation will end after] the complete wiping out and
neutralization of terror organizations. Wherever there is
terrorism, they will be our target."<END QUOTE>
Right now, Turkey's forces appear to be bogged down in Afrin, and this
could mean that Turkey's plans to move on to Manbij will never be
realized.
The US military says: "We remain committed to fulfilling our promises
regarding the YPG presence in Manbij. It is a city with a lot of
people and somebody has to provide security there but our intention is
that will not be the YPG."
That leaves open the question of who will provide security for Manbij.
If it's not the US, and it's not the YPG, and it's not the Turks, then
perhaps it's a local Arab militia, or perhaps it's Bashar al-Assad's
army. This remains to be seen. Anadolu and Washington Examiner and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
- Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria (20-Feb-2018)
- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
- Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Republican People’s Party, CHP,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Afrin, Manbij, Rojava, Rex Tillerson, Binali Yildirim,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
