Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Two states with only seven electoral votes between them. Both are awful for the President. One came close to voting for him in 2016, an done will likely be close one way or the other in 2020. Sure, there will be 531 other electoral votes to be decided in 2020, but these seven electoral votes, if they all go one way or the other, will indicate a landslide one way or the other.

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source


Indeed that is a horrible number.

Technically this is not approve-disapprove."Excellent" and "Good" are unambiguous statements of approval,   and  "poor" is unambiguous disapproval.  The word "fair" can be ambiguous in meaning. "Fair" performance on the violin by a seven-year-old kid might be praiseworthy, but you would not praise a "fair" performance of violin playing by an adult if you had recordings of Kreisler, Heifetz, Oistrakh, Grumiaux, Milstein, Stern, or Perlman against which to compare them. "Fair play", "fair dealing", and "fair weather" are positive contexts.

"Fair" in most contexts is mediocrity, and if one wants food cheap and convenient, then typical fast food is mediocrity. It will quiet your hunger pangs.  Mediocrity in politics is far better than hideousness, let alone horror. If one treats "excellent" and "good" as general approval, then one gets 43% approval. "Poor" unambiguously suggests disapproval at 41%. I am tempted to split the "fair" category (12%) of responses 50-50 to give a 49-47 positive approval, which suggests a near-tie as I have for such states as Missouri and Nebraska. Neither is an ideal analogue for Montana, which has not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992, and then did so in a three-way split of the popular vote. Sure, it was sort-of-close for Obama in 2008, but that matters little. I cannot think of any state that is a good analogue to Montana, including any of its neighbors. Montana is not at all  a farm state (I am guessing that about half the agricultural vote in North and South Dakota and a quarter of the agricultural vote in Idaho is in farming), and it does not depend upon as much as Wyoming upon energy extraction.  

I see few polls for Montana, but I expect to see more because of the Senate seat up for re-election in a state usually tough for Democrats to contest even as incumbents. My treatment of Donald Trump's esteem in Montana may be a bit charitable toward him; I tend to err on the side  of the prospect of President Trump getting re-elected.  This poll suggests that Montana will not be a sure win for Donald Trump in 2020.

Quote:

Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

Neither did I. I thought that the 26/67 spread that I have had too good to be true for someone who despises the President as I do 36-61 is more like it. Could it be that New Hampshire voters who as a whole were close to giving their state's four electoral votes to President Trump now are less supportive of him by about 10%? Republican nominees for President can win without New Hampshire, but I can;t imagine any Republican losing new Hampshire by 10% or more and getting elected.

Donald Trump may be reminding Granite State voters of the sort of New Yorker that they least like, the ugly stereotype of a blustering, domineering, liar with a bloated ego.  




Approval:




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.