03-21-2018, 08:57 PM
*** 22-Mar-18 World View -- How China would lose a war with the United States
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
****
![[Image: g180321b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180321b.jpg)
A portion of the fissure where a gap was opened in a highway (Mwakilishi)
A massive crack in the earth suddenly opened up two weeks ago,
apparently triggered by large rainstorms that caused dangerous
flooding. The fissure is already several miles long and is growing.
The fissure opened up a gap in major road, but engineers from the
China Communications Construction Company immediately began major
repairs of the road, building a bridge across the fissure.
There have been no reports of casualties, but one family reported
that their house split in two while they were eating dinner,
forcing them to flee.
Geologists say that Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and half of Ethiopia could
separate from the African continent to form a new continent dubbed the
Somali Plate in the next 50 million years. Kenya Broadcasting and The Nation (Kenya) and Mwakilishi (Kenya)
Related Articles
****
**** How China would lose a war with the United States
****
For over ten years I've been writing, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that the China and the United States would
be opposed to each other in the approaching Clash of Civilizations
world war.
As I've indicated many times in the past, China is expected to repeat
the situation in World War II, when it faced an external enemy (Japan)
and also had a major internal rebellion, Mao Zedong's Communist
Revolution.
Although in the grand scheme of things, there's never a guarantee that
the US will survive such a war, in the past few years it's seemed
increasingly likely that the US will not only survive, but will
actually win this war. This is because China's belligerent actions
have turned much of the world against China, and China would be facing
multiple enemies besides the US.
An analysis by the Indian think tank SAAG has outlined China's
strategic vulnerabilities:
I would add one more item to this list: I've been comparing the path
that China is following to the path that Nazi Germany followed -- Xi
Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as
Hitler's "National Socialism," Xi's blaming Britain and the Opium Wars
for humiliating China is the same as Hitler's blaming the Jews and
World War I for humiliating Germany. Xi and Hitler both became total
dictators after winning elections.
Another big similarity is that the Chinese believe that they're
superior not only to Americans but to any other group on earth, and
that they can defeat any of them quickly in a war. China isn't using
the phrase "Master Race" that Hitler used, but reading news stories
from China conveys the same feeling. So the item that I would add to
the list is vast overconfidence.
Friedrich Nietzsche said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." In 1860,
America's southern states started the Civil War, even though they had
no chance against the North, which was three times the size. In 1941,
Japan started the Pacific war, even though they had no chance against
the US, which was five times the size. Overconfidence leads absolute
dictators to make catastrophically bad decisions.
Assuming that the analysis is correct that China would be likely to
lose such a war, that doesn't mean that the war won't occur, or that
the war won't be disastrous for the entire world, as well as China, or
that billions of people won't die from nuclear weapons, conventional
weapons, ground war, famine and disease. China's actions are going to
lead to a world war, and historians will look back on the Chinese as
being worse than the Nazis. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
Related Articles:
****
**** ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul
****
A suicide bomber killed at least 32 people on Wednesday by exploding
near a historic Shia shrine in Kabul, where worshippers had gathered
to mark Ashura, the holiest day in the Shia calendar. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit.
The target was Shia ethnic Hazaras, which have been the target of
almost a dozen terror attacks in the last two years. The Taliban, who
are mostly ethnic Sunni Pashtuns, fought against Hazaras in the
extremely bloody Afghan civil war of the early 1990s, climaxing in
1996. Many of these attacks are revenge attacks from that war.
ISIS claimed credit for the attack on the web site of its Amaq public
relations agency. With the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of
thousands of ISIS fighters have been returning to their home
countries. The perpetrators of Wednesday's attack may have been an
existing Taliban group that pledged allegiance to ISIS, or they may
have been veteran terrorists returning from ISIS.
As I've written many times, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that the
Afghan will be resolved peacefully. The younger generations that grew
up after the Afghan civil war are now coming of age, and are anxious
to exact revenge for atrocities that occurred during the war. As more
of these youngsters grow older, the violence will only increase and
occur more frequently.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Washington Post
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Africa, Kenya, China Communications Construction Company,
Somali Plate, China, Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong, Japan,
South Korea, India, Australia, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan,
Narendra Modi, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hitler, National Socialism,
Friedrich Nietzsche, Afghanistan, Kabul, Hazaras, Pashtuns,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
- How China would lose a war with the United States
- ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul
****
**** Massive earth fissure suddenly opens up in mid-Kenya, signaling an eventual split in all of Africa
****
A portion of the fissure where a gap was opened in a highway (Mwakilishi)
A massive crack in the earth suddenly opened up two weeks ago,
apparently triggered by large rainstorms that caused dangerous
flooding. The fissure is already several miles long and is growing.
The fissure opened up a gap in major road, but engineers from the
China Communications Construction Company immediately began major
repairs of the road, building a bridge across the fissure.
There have been no reports of casualties, but one family reported
that their house split in two while they were eating dinner,
forcing them to flee.
Geologists say that Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and half of Ethiopia could
separate from the African continent to form a new continent dubbed the
Somali Plate in the next 50 million years. Kenya Broadcasting and The Nation (Kenya) and Mwakilishi (Kenya)
Related Articles
- Kenyan woman environmental activist wins Nobel Peace Prize (08-Oct-2004)
- Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police (14-Nov-2017)
- Kenya closes border with Madagascar as Black Plague epidemic spreads (25-Oct-2017)
****
**** How China would lose a war with the United States
****
For over ten years I've been writing, based on a Generational
Dynamics analysis, that the China and the United States would
be opposed to each other in the approaching Clash of Civilizations
world war.
As I've indicated many times in the past, China is expected to repeat
the situation in World War II, when it faced an external enemy (Japan)
and also had a major internal rebellion, Mao Zedong's Communist
Revolution.
Although in the grand scheme of things, there's never a guarantee that
the US will survive such a war, in the past few years it's seemed
increasingly likely that the US will not only survive, but will
actually win this war. This is because China's belligerent actions
have turned much of the world against China, and China would be facing
multiple enemies besides the US.
An analysis by the Indian think tank SAAG has outlined China's
strategic vulnerabilities:
- Estimates of China's "strategic and military might have been
overblown both on scale and magnitude."
- "What the United States could not achieve through diplomacy for
decades," China has handed to the US through its military
belligerence. Many Asian nations that have been neutral or even
inimical to the United States are now US allies.
- Pacific nations are in varying stages of military alliance with
the United States because of China's South China Sea military
aggression. Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are strongly
allied with the US.
- Russia may be in a strategic nexus with China, but it is only a
tactical expedient.
- China is friendless in sub-regions of Asia. Among East Asian
nations, China cannot count on anyone but Cambodia and to some extent
Thailand.
- In South Asia, the China-Pakistan axis presents a "Two-Front
military threat" to India, and China appears to have gained ground in
Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bhutan and Bangladesh through the use
of "economic doles." But the influence of China in these countries is
fraying, even in Pakistan, where the "average Pakistani is questioning
the Pakistan Army’s furthering China’s gains at the expense of China’s
‘colonization’ of Pakistan."
- Since Narendra Modi came to power, India's war preparedness has
been increased, after "abject neglect" in the previous government.
- China's internal security has been worsening, with border regions
like Xinjiang and Tibet in a state of unrest. With China's economy
slowing down, domestic discontent is bound to grow.
- There are likely to be violent disturbances generated by thousands
of senior Party officials, Army Generals and others whom Xi Jinping
has removed by using false charges of corruption, in order to become
an unchallenged dictator. There is an explosive mix of internal
security and domestic unrest waiting to be ignited by a solitary
incendiary spark originating externally or internally, or
both.
I would add one more item to this list: I've been comparing the path
that China is following to the path that Nazi Germany followed -- Xi
Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as
Hitler's "National Socialism," Xi's blaming Britain and the Opium Wars
for humiliating China is the same as Hitler's blaming the Jews and
World War I for humiliating Germany. Xi and Hitler both became total
dictators after winning elections.
Another big similarity is that the Chinese believe that they're
superior not only to Americans but to any other group on earth, and
that they can defeat any of them quickly in a war. China isn't using
the phrase "Master Race" that Hitler used, but reading news stories
from China conveys the same feeling. So the item that I would add to
the list is vast overconfidence.
Friedrich Nietzsche said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." In 1860,
America's southern states started the Civil War, even though they had
no chance against the North, which was three times the size. In 1941,
Japan started the Pacific war, even though they had no chance against
the US, which was five times the size. Overconfidence leads absolute
dictators to make catastrophically bad decisions.
Assuming that the analysis is correct that China would be likely to
lose such a war, that doesn't mean that the war won't occur, or that
the war won't be disastrous for the entire world, as well as China, or
that billions of people won't die from nuclear weapons, conventional
weapons, ground war, famine and disease. China's actions are going to
lead to a world war, and historians will look back on the Chinese as
being worse than the Nazis. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
Related Articles:
- Xi Jinping invokes the 1840s Opium Wars to justify military action for China's 'rejuvenation' (21-Mar-2018)
- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
****
**** ISIS-linked terrorists in Afghanistan kill 32 in bombing of Shia Shrine in Kabul
****
A suicide bomber killed at least 32 people on Wednesday by exploding
near a historic Shia shrine in Kabul, where worshippers had gathered
to mark Ashura, the holiest day in the Shia calendar. The so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit.
The target was Shia ethnic Hazaras, which have been the target of
almost a dozen terror attacks in the last two years. The Taliban, who
are mostly ethnic Sunni Pashtuns, fought against Hazaras in the
extremely bloody Afghan civil war of the early 1990s, climaxing in
1996. Many of these attacks are revenge attacks from that war.
ISIS claimed credit for the attack on the web site of its Amaq public
relations agency. With the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of
thousands of ISIS fighters have been returning to their home
countries. The perpetrators of Wednesday's attack may have been an
existing Taliban group that pledged allegiance to ISIS, or they may
have been veteran terrorists returning from ISIS.
As I've written many times, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, there is absolutely no possibility whatsoever that the
Afghan will be resolved peacefully. The younger generations that grew
up after the Afghan civil war are now coming of age, and are anxious
to exact revenge for atrocities that occurred during the war. As more
of these youngsters grow older, the violence will only increase and
occur more frequently.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Washington Post
Related Articles
- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan (01-Feb-2018)
- Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters (22-Jan-2018)
- Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
- ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan (24-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Africa, Kenya, China Communications Construction Company,
Somali Plate, China, Xi Jinping, Mao Zedong, Japan,
South Korea, India, Australia, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan,
Narendra Modi, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hitler, National Socialism,
Friedrich Nietzsche, Afghanistan, Kabul, Hazaras, Pashtuns,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
