03-29-2018, 10:13 PM
*** 30-Mar-18 World View -- Ethiopia choose an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confrontation with the courts
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence
****
![[Image: g180329b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180329b.jpg)
Ethiopian protesters facing the military
Ethiopia has been without a prime minister since February 15, when
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, saying, "I see my
resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead
to sustainable peace and democracy."
Since late 2015, there have been massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, which later spread to the neighboring Amhara
region, leaving hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of
arrests. A state of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing
mass detentions, and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s
movement and communication. The state of emergency ended in August
2017, but massive protests began again, with millions of protesters by
February, leading to Hailemariam's resignation.
The situation has worsened considerably since Hailemariam's
resignation. Almost 10,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have
fled across the border into Kenya, after Ethiopian government soldiers
began shooting civilians indiscriminately, even in their homes and
shops.
In the hopes of ending the chaos and bloodshed, Ethiopia's ruling
government coalition chose an Oromo, Abiy Ahmed, 42, to be a leader of
the coalition. He is now expected to be voted in by parliament as the
country’s next prime minister.
Abiy is being described as a "polyglot," because he's a speaker of
three Ethiopian languages and English He holds a doctorate from Addis
Ababa University in traditional conflict resolution and has
represented his Oromiya hometown of Agaro in parliament since 2010.
He is a retired lieutenant-colonel who previously served as director
of the nation’s Information Network Security Agency, which says it
provides technical intelligence to support the government.
The obvious hope is that by selecting an Oromo as leader, Abiy will be
able to "reason with" the Oromo people and end the massive protests.
An analogy can be drawn with the situation in Myanmar (Burma). The
Burmese army, under the leadership of Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu
using Buddhism, began conducting massacres, rapes and torture against
ethnic Rohingyas. When Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi
effectively became the country's leader, it was welcomed by the entire
international community with the hope that the Burmese army would then
allow the Rohingyas to live in peace. Instead, the violence has only
gotten worse, to the point of ethnic cleansing and genocide, with some
800,000 Rohingyas forced to flee the violence by crossing the border
into Bangladesh. You can argue whether Suu Kyi approves of the ethnic
cleansing, or whether she disapproves but is forced to approve by the
Burmese army. Either way, Suu Kyi has effective turned into a new
Hitler, who is providing cover for the continued ethnic cleansing and
genocide.
We may be seeing the first signs of a similar situation in Ethiopia.
Abiy Ahmed is just one person, while the existing government,
dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, holds all 547 seats in parliament.
Abiy is going to be lone voice in the wilderness, compared to the
traditional opposition.
There may be a brief pause, but we can expect the protests and
violence to start again and continue. What will Abiy do then? Will
he be another Aung San Suu Kyi and provide cover for continued
Tigrayan violence against Oromos and Amharas? Or will he resign, just
as Hailemariam Desalegn, and denounce the violence?
It really doesn't make much difference. Either way, we can expect the
violence to continue, and we can expect millions more Oromos and
Amharas to flee across the border into Kenya, further destabilizing
the region. Africa News and Al Jazeera and Reuters and The Nation (Kenya, 14-Mar) and Bloomberg
Related Articles
****
**** Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle
****
While Ethiopian Oromos are seeking fleeing violence into Kenya,
there's also chaos in Kenya's capital city Nairobi, where a
farcical deportation spectacle highlighted an increasing conflict
between the government of Uhuru Kenyatta and the judiciary.
Uhuru Kenyatta and his major opposition are from two ethnic tribes
that have been at war in the past -- respectively the Kikuyu tribe and
the Luo tribe. The enmity between the two tribes has affected the
political sphere, and from there it's spread into a conflict between
the government and the judiciary.
The first major split occurred last year, when Kenya's Supreme Court
shocked pretty much everybody and sided with Odinga in claiming that
the August 8 presidential election was "invalid, null and void,"
forcing a new election. Kenyatta was furious, as he began calling the
judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and
promising to "fix it" after he was reelected.
Kenyatta did win the election, but has been cracking down on Odinga's
supporters, and arresting many of them. One of those supporters is
political activist Miguna Miguna. In February, the court ordered the
government to release him from jail, and the government ignored the
court order.
Now there's been a farcical new chapter in this drama. Earlier this
week, a court held several top Kenyan government officials in contempt
for refusing to release Miguna Miguna from custody. Instead of
releasing him, the government thugs allegedly drugged him and bundled
him onto a plane to Dubai. He wrote in social media:
<QUOTE>"I was dragged, assaulted, drugged and forcefully
flown to Dubai. I woke up in Dubai and the despots are here
insisting that I must travel on to London. ...
I woke up in Dubai. I’m sick. I need medical treatment. A Mr
Njihia is threatening me. I need urgent help here. I want to take
a flight only to Nairobi. Nowhere else!"<END QUOTE>
Video of security guards manhandling Miguna as they tried to force him
onto a plane the same day went viral, while a number of journalists
covering the story were allegedly assaulted.
The chief justice, David Maraga, criticized the government, saying:
"Disobeying court orders is inimical to the rule of law." The
interior minister, inspector general of police and head of immigration
have been convicted of contempt of court. Standard Media (Kenya) and BBC and Standard Media
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Abiy Ahmed,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Aung San Suu Kyi, Rohingyas,
Kenya, Nairobi, Miguna Miguna, David Maraga,
Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence
- Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle
****
**** Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence
****
Ethiopian protesters facing the military
Ethiopia has been without a prime minister since February 15, when
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, saying, "I see my
resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead
to sustainable peace and democracy."
Since late 2015, there have been massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, which later spread to the neighboring Amhara
region, leaving hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of
arrests. A state of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing
mass detentions, and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s
movement and communication. The state of emergency ended in August
2017, but massive protests began again, with millions of protesters by
February, leading to Hailemariam's resignation.
The situation has worsened considerably since Hailemariam's
resignation. Almost 10,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have
fled across the border into Kenya, after Ethiopian government soldiers
began shooting civilians indiscriminately, even in their homes and
shops.
In the hopes of ending the chaos and bloodshed, Ethiopia's ruling
government coalition chose an Oromo, Abiy Ahmed, 42, to be a leader of
the coalition. He is now expected to be voted in by parliament as the
country’s next prime minister.
Abiy is being described as a "polyglot," because he's a speaker of
three Ethiopian languages and English He holds a doctorate from Addis
Ababa University in traditional conflict resolution and has
represented his Oromiya hometown of Agaro in parliament since 2010.
He is a retired lieutenant-colonel who previously served as director
of the nation’s Information Network Security Agency, which says it
provides technical intelligence to support the government.
The obvious hope is that by selecting an Oromo as leader, Abiy will be
able to "reason with" the Oromo people and end the massive protests.
An analogy can be drawn with the situation in Myanmar (Burma). The
Burmese army, under the leadership of Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu
using Buddhism, began conducting massacres, rapes and torture against
ethnic Rohingyas. When Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi
effectively became the country's leader, it was welcomed by the entire
international community with the hope that the Burmese army would then
allow the Rohingyas to live in peace. Instead, the violence has only
gotten worse, to the point of ethnic cleansing and genocide, with some
800,000 Rohingyas forced to flee the violence by crossing the border
into Bangladesh. You can argue whether Suu Kyi approves of the ethnic
cleansing, or whether she disapproves but is forced to approve by the
Burmese army. Either way, Suu Kyi has effective turned into a new
Hitler, who is providing cover for the continued ethnic cleansing and
genocide.
We may be seeing the first signs of a similar situation in Ethiopia.
Abiy Ahmed is just one person, while the existing government,
dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, holds all 547 seats in parliament.
Abiy is going to be lone voice in the wilderness, compared to the
traditional opposition.
There may be a brief pause, but we can expect the protests and
violence to start again and continue. What will Abiy do then? Will
he be another Aung San Suu Kyi and provide cover for continued
Tigrayan violence against Oromos and Amharas? Or will he resign, just
as Hailemariam Desalegn, and denounce the violence?
It really doesn't make much difference. Either way, we can expect the
violence to continue, and we can expect millions more Oromos and
Amharas to flee across the border into Kenya, further destabilizing
the region. Africa News and Al Jazeera and Reuters and The Nation (Kenya, 14-Mar) and Bloomberg
Related Articles
- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
- Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
- Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
****
**** Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle
****
While Ethiopian Oromos are seeking fleeing violence into Kenya,
there's also chaos in Kenya's capital city Nairobi, where a
farcical deportation spectacle highlighted an increasing conflict
between the government of Uhuru Kenyatta and the judiciary.
Uhuru Kenyatta and his major opposition are from two ethnic tribes
that have been at war in the past -- respectively the Kikuyu tribe and
the Luo tribe. The enmity between the two tribes has affected the
political sphere, and from there it's spread into a conflict between
the government and the judiciary.
The first major split occurred last year, when Kenya's Supreme Court
shocked pretty much everybody and sided with Odinga in claiming that
the August 8 presidential election was "invalid, null and void,"
forcing a new election. Kenyatta was furious, as he began calling the
judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and
promising to "fix it" after he was reelected.
Kenyatta did win the election, but has been cracking down on Odinga's
supporters, and arresting many of them. One of those supporters is
political activist Miguna Miguna. In February, the court ordered the
government to release him from jail, and the government ignored the
court order.
Now there's been a farcical new chapter in this drama. Earlier this
week, a court held several top Kenyan government officials in contempt
for refusing to release Miguna Miguna from custody. Instead of
releasing him, the government thugs allegedly drugged him and bundled
him onto a plane to Dubai. He wrote in social media:
<QUOTE>"I was dragged, assaulted, drugged and forcefully
flown to Dubai. I woke up in Dubai and the despots are here
insisting that I must travel on to London. ...
I woke up in Dubai. I’m sick. I need medical treatment. A Mr
Njihia is threatening me. I need urgent help here. I want to take
a flight only to Nairobi. Nowhere else!"<END QUOTE>
Video of security guards manhandling Miguna as they tried to force him
onto a plane the same day went viral, while a number of journalists
covering the story were allegedly assaulted.
The chief justice, David Maraga, criticized the government, saying:
"Disobeying court orders is inimical to the rule of law." The
interior minister, inspector general of police and head of immigration
have been convicted of contempt of court. Standard Media (Kenya) and BBC and Standard Media
Related Articles
- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration (04-Feb-2018)
- Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017)
- Torture and murder of election official raise fears of violence in Kenya (01-Aug-2017)
- Severe drought in Kenya increases violence among herders, farmers and police (14-Nov-2017)
- Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Abiy Ahmed,
Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Aung San Suu Kyi, Rohingyas,
Kenya, Nairobi, Miguna Miguna, David Maraga,
Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
