Two states: Indiana and Texas. Indiana is usually rock-solid Republican in Presidential elections, so much that Republicans do not win the Presidency except when winning the state by 10% or more. Trump won it 56-37 and still lost the national popular vote (but he won the 'right votes' elsewhere, so he is President). But he is underwater in polling support in Indian. He might win the state -- barely -- in 2020. He might also lose it.
Source
TEXAS
from Quinnipiac, which has never polled Texas before.
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536
Ted Cruz is barely ahead of O'Rourke. Texas could reflect change in political culture unique to Texas, but (1) Trump support in Texas has been consistently shaky so far, and (2) see also Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, all of which have some similarities. Texas contains the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat, which is not a partisan statement.
Sure, Texas is a tricky state to poll -- but Trump can't be that far underwater in the Lone Star State in a poll without being underwater.
Addendum: one pollster shows a 45-45 split on Trump in Kentucky.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=2;55;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;48;1&AK=2;52;5&AZ=1;45;5&AR=2;48;2&CA=1;30;7&CO=1;35;7&CT=1;38;7&DE=1;39;7&DC=1;17;9&FL=1;42;5&GA=1;39;7&HI=1;33;7&ID=2;52;5&IL=1;37;7&IN=1;47;2&IA=1;44;5&KS=2;48;2&KY=4;45;1&LA=1;48;2&MD=1;36;7&MA=1;29;7&MI=1;37;7&MN=1;40;7&MS=2;46;2&MO=1;46;2&MT=2;50;5&NV=1;45;5&NH=1;36;7&NJ=1;32;7&NM=1;42;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;38;7&ND=2;53;5&OH=1;41;7&OK=2;59;7&OR=1;36;7&PA=1;39;7&RI=1;30;7&SC=1;44;5&SD=2;52;5&TN=2;50;5&TX=1;43;5&UT=2;48;2&VT=1;32;7&VA=1;37;7&WA=1;36;7&WV=2;51;5&WI=1;41;7&WY=2;62;7&ME=1;42;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;46;2&NE1=1;45;2&NE2=1;38;7&NE3=2;55;7)
55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
100-Disapproval
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=2;66;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;48;1&AK=2;57;7&AZ=1;50;2&AR=2;54;5&CA=1;40;7&CO=1;37;7&CT=1;41;5&DE=1;43;5&DC=1;20;9&FL=1;46;2&GA=1;51;7&HI=1;36;7&ID=2;56;7&IL=1;42;5&IN=1;52;2&IA=1;51;5&KS=2;53;5&KY=2;55;7&LA=1;50;2&MD=1;40;7&MA=1;35;7&MI=1;40;7&MN=1;43;5&MS=2;59;7&MO=1;50;2&MT=2;54;5&NV=1;49;2&NH=1;39;7&NJ=1;37;7&NM=1;46;2&NY=1;35;7&NC=1;50;2&ND=2;57;5&OH=1;49;2&OK=2;62;7&OR=1;41;5&PA=1;45;5&RI=1;30;7&SC=1;50;5&SD=2;58;7&TN=2;59;7&TX=1;48;2&UT=2;51;5&VA=1;40;7&VT=1;36;7&WA=1;40;7&WV=2;52;5&WI=1;49;2&WY=2;68;7&ME=1;46;2&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;54;5&NE1=1;55;2&NE2=1;46;2&NE3=2;66;7)
55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.
Source
TEXAS
from Quinnipiac, which has never polled Texas before.
Quote:Texas voters disapprove 52 - 43 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 85 - 13 percent. Disapproval is 90 - 8 percent among Democrats and 64 - 28 percent among independent voters.
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536
Ted Cruz is barely ahead of O'Rourke. Texas could reflect change in political culture unique to Texas, but (1) Trump support in Texas has been consistently shaky so far, and (2) see also Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, all of which have some similarities. Texas contains the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat, which is not a partisan statement.
Sure, Texas is a tricky state to poll -- but Trump can't be that far underwater in the Lone Star State in a poll without being underwater.
Addendum: one pollster shows a 45-45 split on Trump in Kentucky.
Approval:
55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
100-Disapproval
55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.