Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Jul-18 World View -- Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's government in chaos as no-deal 'hard Brexit' looms
  
• Ireland border problem continues to be insurmountable
  
• IMF warns of harsh economic effects of no-deal Brexit
  

****
**** Britain's government in chaos as no-deal 'hard Brexit' looms
****


Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in House of Commons says that 'the government has sunk in a mire of chaos and division'

Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar says that Ireland
will have to hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors by
2021 in the case of a "hard Brexit," which is appearing to be more and
more likely every day.

As the UK continues to move toward the Brexit cliff-edge on March 29,
2019, it's not possible to discern the current status of the UK-EU
negotiations on the subject, because it's in total chaos, and even if
you did figure it out, then you'd have to figure it out again a minute
later.

Two weeks ago, UK prime minister Theresa May appeared to have achieved
stability with something that's now called "the Chequers plan,"
because she was able to get it approved by her Tory cabinet at a
meeting at Chequers, the prime minister's country residence. The
proposal specified that a "common rule book" between the EU and the UK
would be created. This was to be enough to satisfy the "Remainer"
faction of her party, those in the party who never wanted Brexit in
the first place but who could live with a set of rules that would make
it seem that the UK had never left the EU.

However, it ended up angering the "Leave" or "Brexiteer" faction, who
did want the UK to leave the EU, because the common rule book would
force the UK would to follow all the same standards and regulations as
it had never left the EU. So, even though May's cabinet voted for the
Chequers plan, four days later David Davis, the Brexit secretary
resigned. That resignation was followed by a second one, by
international superstar Boris Johnson.

Then late last week, May was forced to accept four amendments to the
Chequers plan, demanded by the Leave faction of the Tories. With so
many flip-flops, it looked like the plan was dead. But on Thursday,
Theresa May denied claims the trade proposals were "dead in the water"
after accepting the four amendments.

So, as of today, it's not clear whether May could get agreement within
her own Tory party. If she succeeds, she's have to get agreement of
the House of Commons. If she succeeds, she'd have to get agreement
from the other 27 nations of the European Union. (An additional issue
is that Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn is being seriously accused of
anti-Semitism. This is apparently a big story, and it's causing chaos
in the Labor party that may spill over into the chaos of the Brexit
negotiations.)

There are still other proposals floating around, but the important
point is that there is no proposal, including the Chequers proposal,
that is likely to get a majority vote. If no proposal can get a
majority vote, then when the UK "crashes out of" the EU on March 29,
it will be a "no-deal Brexit," otherwise known as a "hard Brexit."
Nobody (or almost nobody) wants a hard Brexit, but many analysts now
consider that to be the most likely outcome. BBC and Irish Times and BBC (9-Jul)

****
**** Ireland border problem continues to be insurmountable
****

After 16 months of debate since the Brexit referendum passed, there is
one particular problem has proven to be unsolvable: The status of the
border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and the
Republic of (Southern) Ireland, which is part of the EU.

Everyone wants a "soft border" between the two regions, but if the UK
is no longer in the EU, then any people and goods passing over the
border would have to go through customs, have the passports and visas
checked, and possibly pay customs duties and fees. No one wants this,
but there is no solution to this problem. Solutions that have been
proposed include:

• Some sort of high-tech solution that uses sensors to check
  goods and passports as vehicles are zipping across the border. This
  is completely a political fantasy.
  
  
• Keep Ireland and Northern Ireland as a single customs union, but
  then have a customs border in the Irish Sea. This means that goods
  and services passing between Ireland+Northern Ireland on the one hand,
  and England+Wales+Scotland on the other hand would have to have
  passports and visas checked, and pay customs duties and fees. This
  could work, but everyone really hates it. Furthermore, it would
  encourage the Catholic Republicans in Northern Ireland to declare that
  Northern Ireland should seced from the UK and be part of Ireland,
  possibly igniting a new war in Ireland.
  
  
• For several months, a mythical "Ireland Backstop" proposal has
  been floating around. It's never been clearly defined, but it appears
  to be the same as the "Irish Sea" proposal above, except that it would
  be time-limited in some way.

None of these has a high probability of succeeding. So that's why
Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar is making plans to
hire about 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors, to prepare
Irish seaports and airports for the change of rules in case of a hard
Brexit:

<QUOTE>"That involves preparing for and hiring veterinary
inspectors to carry out sanitary checks on agricultural products
and plant-based products coming in from Britain and also customs
inspectors.

We estimate we will have to hire about 1,000 customs and
veterinary inspectors to prepare our ports and airports for
Brexit.

In the unlikely event of a no-deal Brexit next March, of course it
will not be possible to have 1,000 people in place for then but we
will make contingency arrangements in the event that might
arise."<END QUOTE>

Varadkar also warned that UK planes could be restricted from flying in
EU airspace in the event of a no deal Brexit. He said UK could not
take back its waters and expect to use EU skies. "You can't have your
cake and eat it," he said. RTE (Ireland) and Irish Times and Business Insider (3-Jun)

****
**** IMF warns of harsh economic effects of no-deal Brexit
****

And International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis of Brexit finds that
that EU countries would lose 1.5% of their GDP and more than a million
jobs, in the case of a no-deal Brexit. Ireland would be worst hit,
losing 4% of its economy, due to its close trade ties with Britain The
Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg would also be hit hard, with
. Germany would also suffering due to industrial supply chains.

The IMF did not estimate the costs to Britain, but an earlier Bank of
England analysis put the cost at 1.5-2.0% of the economy, while other
estimates put the figure at 4%. Reuters and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements (09-May-2018)
  
  
• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS:

Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Leo Varadkar, Brexit, EU, UK,
Theresa May, Chequers, David Davis, Boris Johnson,
Jeremy Corbyn, Ireland Backstop, International Monetary Fund, IMF

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John J. Xenakis
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