Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

States' history of voting, 1992-2016



All elections for the Democrat
1R, 6D
2R, 5D
4D, 3R or 3R, 4D (white if voting for H. Clinton, light blue if voting for Trump
5R, 2D
6R, 1D
All elections for the Democrat

That a state voted more often one way or another means something, unless the state has strongly trended one way or the other. Because Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia have strongly trended Republican, they are apparently less likely to vote for a Democratic nominee in 2020 than any states that voted once for a Democrat for President (including Indiana). Nearly-splitting evenly (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia) means less for the Democrat than does how the state voted in 2016.

Ohio voted 'right' in every Presidential election since 1960. and I do not expect that to change.  My system shows Iowa more likely to have voted Democratic than Colorado or Virginia-- but I no longer believe that Iowa will vote more D than Colorado or Virginia for a very long time in a close election.

Now -- how they voted in 2016, but with no distinctions in margins over 10%.

 

Trump by 10% or more
Trump, 6% or more but less than 10%
Trump, 2% or more but less than 6%
Trump by 2% or less (white)
H. Clinton by 4% or less
H. Clinton by 4% or more but less than 10%
H. Clinton by 10% or more

I don't have as much distinction between bare wins by H. Clinton as between those of Trump, but all in all, I've seen many polls of Colorado and Virginia and few of New Mexico -- and they have been execrable for Trump since 2017. Those for New Hampshire (which is unlikely to decide anything) have been consistently awful for Trump. Except when he was lauding an infrastructure program (it was privatization to profiteering monopolists, and most people do not want to pay $10 more in tolls per day just to ensure that a few people get jobs) polls of Minnesota suggest that Trump's near-win of the state was a fluke. I have seen little about Maine at large, but those two electoral votes will not decide an election. What little I have seen of polling in Nevada has suggested that the state has drifted away from Trump.

As simply as I can put it -- Florida and any other state that Trump won in white or pale blue wins the Presidency for the Democrat. Should Trump lose Pennsylvania and any other two states in white or deep blue, he loses -- which of course includes Michigan and Wisconsin -- and provides the easiest path to victory for any Democrat.  

This is before I discuss any possible Trump loss involving the High Plains states from Montana to Kansas. Those states may comprise but 19 electoral votes, but these states which heavily rely upon income from agriculture stand to be hurt worst in a trade war. Iowa certainly goes along with them, so this is about as bad as losing Florida. Michigan and Wisconsin may be Rust Belt states, but they have significant agricultural sectors which can go enough D that if farmers and ranchers go about 55-45 R instead of 70-30 R, then both Michigan and Wisconsin flip.


 

Farmers and ranchers generally vote about 70R-30D.  Farmers and ranchers vote their pocketbooks, as they usually end up cash cows for federal, state, and local tax revenues. But falling commodity prices and rising input prices can hurt just as much as tax increases. Farmers and ranchers took a huge swing from R to D between 1928 and 1932 over economic distress, and they could do much the same should the Trade War hurt them. Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas account for 19 electoral votes -- OK, NE-02, which is much of Greater Omaha, isn't really rural. These states depend upon farm exports. So if Trump loses enough of the farm-and-ranch vote  he can easily lose 18 electoral votes just for that.   For this scenario I am putting the states most directly affected by rural distress in green, and those that could easily swing for such in pale green.