Quote:Marist just tweeted that approval ratings for the President are execrable in Minnesota (which he barely lost), Michigan (which he barely won), and Wisconsin (which he barely won). In each, the President's approval is in the mid-30s.
In case you wonder why I was so slow to put up the polling numbers for these three states, Marist asked a question even more telling than whether people approve or disapprove of the President's performance. The response is even more devastating than my 100-DIS model, which may be a bit conservative in estimating the chance of a Trump loss. Approval of the President is horrid in these three states, but even if the President won the decided on approval vs. disapproval he would lose all three states -- if barely.
![[Image: 31OvFTr.png]](https://i.imgur.com/31OvFTr.png)
These are devastating, suggesting a loss analogous to that of Carter in 1980. Of course, Carter actually won Minnesota in 1980, but then Minnesota was the most Democratic state in the Union as shown in the solitary win by Mondale in 1984. Minnesota has drifted away from being the strongest Democratic state, and I can easily imagine it being slightly more R than the national average in a Democratic blowout.
![[Image: ERaVLEO.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ERaVLEO.png)
As in 2008, 2012, and 2016 these states were very close to each other (differing by a margin of about 2%), and will likely be so again in 2020. I still have but three states for which I have the answer to the question of re-election or bring in someone else... but that is enough to suggest that President Trump will lose to a Democrat who will win at least as decisively as Obama in 2008. Sure, I would love to see this question asked of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Have patience, folks.
55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
100-Disapproval
55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:
Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise
100-DIS
55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.
States and districts hard to see:
CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.