Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Two states that President Trump will absolutely, positively have to win:

GEORGIA

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.


You know the joke about Georgia, don't you? It's that Atlanta is a very sophisticated city surrounded by Georgia. A similar joke can be made of Chicago and Illinois or (almost) Indianapolis and Indiana.

Not my favorite pollster -- but the 2018 midterm election looks like a potential disaster for Republicans.

Republicans might be able to canvass in this state -- just avoid black and Hispanic voters, but at this level I am seeing more support for the African-American female Democrat running for Governor of Georgia than there ever was for some black fellow running from Illinois for President.

  Senators Isakson and Perdue have approvals in nearly the same area as President Trump. Mercifully for Republicans, neither is up for re-election in 2018. In 2020 and 2022 they will be vulnerable.

Democrats have edges in Secretary of State and the general ballot for the House of Representatives.  Greater Atlanta is probably no less D than such places as Cleveland . But it is one giant metro area dominating the politics of a state, something like Phoenix -- if with a different ethnic mix and about seven times as much rain as Phoenix -- which also has trouble with air quality, rain or not. The President's environmental policies can hurt him in Georgia. 46-49? I have seen wilder polling of Georgia, and I have just tossed one such poll on this map. The 100-DIS model says that Georgia is still possible for Donald Trump.,

It is risky to draw conclusions from one pollster to another, let alone try to extrapolate an answer to an unasked question...  but if you compare the Marist polls of Arizona. Florida (neighboring!). and Ohio to the Gravis poll of Georgia, and making an analogue for Georgia one gets

st    app     elect/not reelect
    
AZ   42-48     35-57
FL    42-46    37-54
OH   42-49    34-58

GA   46-49     39-58  (estimate)

Based on what I see of the Marist polls of three states that Trump won by margins of 3.5%, 1.17%, and 8.07% in 2016 -- a state that he won by 4.09%  should be very much in play. I have seen worse polls of Georgia for Donald Trump. Things get really bleak for President Trump should the Democrat win the gubernatorial election , and a Democratic nominee can make campaign appearances with the Governor practically at will as Obama could not.  

No, I am not showing this extrapolation on the map. I do not show any estimates other than 100-DIS. But I can treat Georgia as a pure toss-up at this point. It is worse for Republicans in 2020 than it was for them in 2008 or 2016.



TEXAS

From Quinnipiac:

Quote:President Trump's Approval

Texas voters are divided on President Donald Trump as 46 percent approve of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapprove.

Republicans approve 84 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 52 - 43 percent among independent voters.

Texas' college grads still approve of the President 56-42, which is lower than one used to expect.

Senator Ted Cruz has a positive approval rating barely above 50 (50-42, both approval and favorability), but only a 6-point gap over his challenger Beto O'Rourke (49-43).

Governor Abbott has a large, but shrinking lead over his Democratic challenger.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559

At this point I must consider Texas a toss-up for 2020. Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for Texas as a Republican Presidential nominee since Barry Goldwater.  

Texas is the difference between a Democrat winning the state as did Barack Obama in 2008 or Bill Clinton in the 1990s -- and an Eisenhower-style win. It has looked like the state containing the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat since about 1992.



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.