(08-10-2018, 10:32 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:(08-06-2018, 11:55 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: John HarwoodVerified account @JohnJHarwood 9h9 hours agoWell, if the 58% is twice as large in size as the 66%, I'd say Trump is in pretty good shape.
how narrow is Trump's base? in new Gallup poll, his rating among whites without college degrees is 58% approve, 39% disapprove among all other Americans, it's 29% approve, 66% disapprove
You might want to contrast the number of white people of voting age without college degrees to everyone else. That is a shrinking share of the electorate.
Here is a tool for adjusting demographics to fit electoral results to voting patterns among the different groups. If I move the percentage of non-college-educated white people to 66% from what it was in 2012, then Trump picks up Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- and he did that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...-election/
Nate Silver didn't see Donald Trump exciting the white buffoons in America -- people who care little about policy and fall for excitement. Trump was exciting... but the thrill is gone. He has offended the sensibilities of millions, some of whom voted for him.
Will your meager tax cut make your increased cost of living through tariffs a triviality? I discussed this with my auto insurance agent. After-market replacement parts used in vehicle repairs will be more expensive. Collisions will be more expensive, so guess what that will do to insurance premiums!
Got comprehensive coverage on your house? The value of the stuff in your house just increased, which is fine if you intend to sell it. If you lose it in a fire or other calamity it will be much more expensive to replace it.
Got electronic gadgets? If one breaks or goes obsolete, then you will replace it. Most of the electronic toys such as stereos. televisions, computers, and cell phones are made overseas. Guess what that will do!
I live in a farming area, and farmers already see some declining prices for the commodities that they sell. Tax cuts are poor compensation for falling income. Farmers, ranchers, and dairymen who rely upon export markets for income usually vote Republican out of concern for taxes, as they those hard-working people are easy marks for taxes. But as in 1930 and 1932 they could make a sharp swing Democratic as falling income hurts them.
But here I give qualitative suggestions on how polling will go, and how Trump will fare in a re-election bid. Polling is quantitative. I can expect economic chaos or stagflation. Look at what that did for Carter in 1976 (probably getting him elected against the incumbent Gerald Ford), but contributing to his landslide loss in 1980.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.