08-14-2018, 11:06 PM
*** 15-Aug-18 World View -- Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
****
![[Image: g180814b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180814b.jpg)
Result when bus carrying Chinese workers was attacked by a suicide bomber
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed credit for a suicide
bombing attack that injured three Chinese workers in Pakistan's
Balochistan province, as they were working on the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). It appears that the Chinese workers were
specifically targeted. The suicide attack targeted a bus transporting
Chinese workers from their work place in the mines to the city of
Quetta.
The Chinese workers were working on the Saindak Copper-Gold project in
a mountainous area near the border with Iran. This is a joint venture
between Pakistan and China to extract gold, copper and silver from the
area. The project is managed by a Chinese firm, the Metallurgical
Corporation of China (MCC).
Since the 1990s, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been waging
an armed struggle against the government of Pakistan for equal rights
and self-determination for the people of the Baloch ethnic group in
Pakistan. It has conducted dozens of terror attacks against
government installations, security personnel, military targets, and
Pakistani laborers. In May 2017 it began attacking CPEC and Chinese
targets, particularly the port at Gwadar. The BLA opposes CPEC,
saying that it exploits Balochistan resources that they believe belong
to the Baloch people.
Although the exact contractual agreement between Pakistan and China is
a secret, it's believed that profits are distributed according to
ownership. MCC owns 50% of the mine, Balochistan province owns 35%,
and Pakistan's government owns 15%. The BLA claim that CPEC is
allowing China and Pakistan to exploit resources that should belong to
the Baloch people.
CPEC is a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a
network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic
and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D
and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese
investment, supplies and interests.
The security of Chinese workers in Pakistan is a big issue. China and
Pakistan signed the CPEC agreement in March of last year, making CPEC
a target of terror groups including BLA.
Chinese officials say that a major benefit of CPEC to Pakistan is that
it employs about 2,000 local Balochistan workers. But Pakistan's
ambassador to China Masood Khalid has estimated that there are some
30,000 Chinese working on Pakistan development projects, including
CPEC, and that Pakistan's army has deployed 15,000 soldiers to provide
security for the Chinese workers.
So China has loaned Pakistan tens of billions of dollars for CPEC, and
the salaries of 30,000 Chinese workers and 15,000 soldiers are paid
out of that money. But only 2,000 local workers receive any of that
money. The BLA objects to these kinds of terms.
Despite all that money being paid for Pakistani army soldiers, the bus
carrying Chinese workers was still attacked by a suicide bomber on
Saturday.
This has alarmed Chinese officials. A Chinese police delegation
arrived in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad on Monday to discuss the
matter. Pakistan's interior minister said that Pakistan had left no
stone unturned in providing fool proof security to Chinese citizens in
Pakistan. “We are committed to fight against terrorism in all of its
manifestations." There has not yet been any announcement of what
additional steps will be taken to protect Chinese citizens working in
Pakistan.
Li Wei, a Chinese counter-intelligence expert, said:
<QUOTE>"The province of Balochistan is a region in Pakistan
where terrorist activities are relatively intense. Separatist
forces there believe that any development activity in their
'territories' violates their interests, and that is the reason why
they launch terror attacks."<END QUOTE>
The solution is to hire more security personnel. One Chinese company
has six security personnel escorting a single Chinese employee to
ensure his daily safety. The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Global Times (Beijing) and The Nation (24-Aug-2017) and Dawn (Pakistan, 27-Oct-2017)
****
**** War of words grows over IMF funding for Pakistan's debt
****
![[Image: g180814c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180814c.jpg)
A currency dealer in Quetta, Pakistan (AFP)
As we reported last week, Pakistan is deeply in debt, and has only
enough foreign reserves to cover payments for imports until the end of
August. Much of Pakistan's financial problems are caused by a Chinese
"debt trap," where Pakistan does not have the foreign reserves to make
payments on the money that China has loaned to Pakistan for CPEC.
( "7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC"
)
On Monday, it emerged that China has agreed to guarantee Pakistan's
financial backing. This means that China will loan Pakistan
additional billions of dollars, making Pakistan even more deeply
indebted to China.
The only other possible source of money for Pakistan to stave off
financial disaster is a new loan from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), although Pakistan has not fully repaid its last loan, made in
2013.
Imran Khan, Pakistan's incoming anti-American prime minister, used to
criticize Pakistan's government for borrowing from the
Washington-based IMF, but now that he's in the government with a
pending financial crisis, he's suggested that his attitude may have
changed.
However, attitudes in Washington have also changed. It's becoming
apparent that China is setting debt traps in one nation after another
as it loans tens of billions of dollars to each nation for
infrastructure projects in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It's
now being recognized that many of these countries are going to come to
the IMF for loans when they're unable to pay their debts to China,
which means that money from the IMF, which is largely funded by
American taxpayers, would be paid to China in the case of each
country.
Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of US senators expressed
concern over potential bailout requests to the IMF by countries who
have accepted "predatory Chinese infrastructure financing."
This has angered the Chinese, who of course would like to have the IMF
bail out their debt trap countries, so that in effect the IMF would be
funding China's BRI projects in all the countries.
According to a lengthy analysis in the South China Morning Post:
<QUOTE>"Unexpectedly, just five days after Pakistan’s
elections, [US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo opposed an IMF
bailout package to Pakistan. He argued that American taxpayer
dollars are part of IMF funding and therefore the US government
would not allow a bailout package for Pakistan that could be used
to repay Chinese creditors or the government of China. This is the
first time the US government has openly made a move that is
tantamount to attacking Pakistan-China economic cooperation. ...
Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s recent statement is a major blow
to US-Pakistan relations. This does not bode well for peace and
stability in Afghanistan because now Pakistan will not be
motivated to cooperate with the US government anymore on the
Afghan front.
Given that the US is a major power broker in the IMF, its
opposition will effectively thwart a bailout package for
Pakistan. The country will have to explore other options to secure
the funds needed to stimulate its economy. Unfortunately, there
are not many countries or funding organisations that can offer
Pakistan a generous financial bailout. Thus, Pakistan would be
left with no choice but to ask for help from its all-weather
friend – China. ...
After the probable refusal of IMF bailout package, Pakistan will
be seeking additional loans of US$12 billion from China. ...
Hence, Pakistan will further be pushed towards economic dependence
on China. If it is unable to repay Chinese loans, it could end up
leasing its assets, such as Gwadar Port, to China. This model has
already worked with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
The US decision to block the IMF bailout has effectively put
Pakistan on the path to becoming a Chinese economic colony. This
will certainly not help the US in increasing its influence in
South Asia and Indochina, but will rather immensely increase the
influence of China in South Asia."<END QUOTE>
The analysis refers to the Sri Lanka example, where Sri Lanka was
unable to make payments on money loaned by China for the Hambantota
Seaport. As a result, Sri Lanka was forced to give control of
Hambantota to China for 99 years. In addition, there is now a large
Chinese enclave surrounding the seaport of thousands of Chinese
workers and families that will be there forever.
So the above analysis worries that all of Pakistan is on the path to
becoming a "Chinese economic colony." The implied solution is that
the US and the IMF should rush to Pakistan's rescue and give them the
money to repay their all-weather friend China.
It's actually still possible that the IMF will lend Pakistan the
money. Theoretically, the IMF is an indpendent organization, located
in Washington, but not controlled in any way by Washington political
policy. Theoretically, the IMF should not be swayed in its decision
by the way the money will be used -- to repay China.
As I've been writing for the last ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world
war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part
of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the
bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and
Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other.
Whether the IMF lends money to Pakistan or not, it is not possible for
the US and Pakistan to become "friends" in anything like the sense
that China and Pakistan are "all-weather friends." Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Xinhua and South China Morning Post
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, China,
Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Saindak Copper-Gold project, Metallurgical Corporation of China, MCC,
Kashgar, Xinjiang, Gwadar seaport, Masood Khalid, Li Wei,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
- War of words grows over IMF funding for Pakistan's debt
****
**** Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing
****
Result when bus carrying Chinese workers was attacked by a suicide bomber
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed credit for a suicide
bombing attack that injured three Chinese workers in Pakistan's
Balochistan province, as they were working on the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). It appears that the Chinese workers were
specifically targeted. The suicide attack targeted a bus transporting
Chinese workers from their work place in the mines to the city of
Quetta.
The Chinese workers were working on the Saindak Copper-Gold project in
a mountainous area near the border with Iran. This is a joint venture
between Pakistan and China to extract gold, copper and silver from the
area. The project is managed by a Chinese firm, the Metallurgical
Corporation of China (MCC).
Since the 1990s, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been waging
an armed struggle against the government of Pakistan for equal rights
and self-determination for the people of the Baloch ethnic group in
Pakistan. It has conducted dozens of terror attacks against
government installations, security personnel, military targets, and
Pakistani laborers. In May 2017 it began attacking CPEC and Chinese
targets, particularly the port at Gwadar. The BLA opposes CPEC,
saying that it exploits Balochistan resources that they believe belong
to the Baloch people.
Although the exact contractual agreement between Pakistan and China is
a secret, it's believed that profits are distributed according to
ownership. MCC owns 50% of the mine, Balochistan province owns 35%,
and Pakistan's government owns 15%. The BLA claim that CPEC is
allowing China and Pakistan to exploit resources that should belong to
the Baloch people.
CPEC is a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a
network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic
and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D
and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese
investment, supplies and interests.
The security of Chinese workers in Pakistan is a big issue. China and
Pakistan signed the CPEC agreement in March of last year, making CPEC
a target of terror groups including BLA.
Chinese officials say that a major benefit of CPEC to Pakistan is that
it employs about 2,000 local Balochistan workers. But Pakistan's
ambassador to China Masood Khalid has estimated that there are some
30,000 Chinese working on Pakistan development projects, including
CPEC, and that Pakistan's army has deployed 15,000 soldiers to provide
security for the Chinese workers.
So China has loaned Pakistan tens of billions of dollars for CPEC, and
the salaries of 30,000 Chinese workers and 15,000 soldiers are paid
out of that money. But only 2,000 local workers receive any of that
money. The BLA objects to these kinds of terms.
Despite all that money being paid for Pakistani army soldiers, the bus
carrying Chinese workers was still attacked by a suicide bomber on
Saturday.
This has alarmed Chinese officials. A Chinese police delegation
arrived in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad on Monday to discuss the
matter. Pakistan's interior minister said that Pakistan had left no
stone unturned in providing fool proof security to Chinese citizens in
Pakistan. “We are committed to fight against terrorism in all of its
manifestations." There has not yet been any announcement of what
additional steps will be taken to protect Chinese citizens working in
Pakistan.
Li Wei, a Chinese counter-intelligence expert, said:
<QUOTE>"The province of Balochistan is a region in Pakistan
where terrorist activities are relatively intense. Separatist
forces there believe that any development activity in their
'territories' violates their interests, and that is the reason why
they launch terror attacks."<END QUOTE>
The solution is to hire more security personnel. One Chinese company
has six security personnel escorting a single Chinese employee to
ensure his daily safety. The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Global Times (Beijing) and The Nation (24-Aug-2017) and Dawn (Pakistan, 27-Oct-2017)
****
**** War of words grows over IMF funding for Pakistan's debt
****
A currency dealer in Quetta, Pakistan (AFP)
As we reported last week, Pakistan is deeply in debt, and has only
enough foreign reserves to cover payments for imports until the end of
August. Much of Pakistan's financial problems are caused by a Chinese
"debt trap," where Pakistan does not have the foreign reserves to make
payments on the money that China has loaned to Pakistan for CPEC.
( "7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC"
)
On Monday, it emerged that China has agreed to guarantee Pakistan's
financial backing. This means that China will loan Pakistan
additional billions of dollars, making Pakistan even more deeply
indebted to China.
The only other possible source of money for Pakistan to stave off
financial disaster is a new loan from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), although Pakistan has not fully repaid its last loan, made in
2013.
Imran Khan, Pakistan's incoming anti-American prime minister, used to
criticize Pakistan's government for borrowing from the
Washington-based IMF, but now that he's in the government with a
pending financial crisis, he's suggested that his attitude may have
changed.
However, attitudes in Washington have also changed. It's becoming
apparent that China is setting debt traps in one nation after another
as it loans tens of billions of dollars to each nation for
infrastructure projects in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It's
now being recognized that many of these countries are going to come to
the IMF for loans when they're unable to pay their debts to China,
which means that money from the IMF, which is largely funded by
American taxpayers, would be paid to China in the case of each
country.
Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of US senators expressed
concern over potential bailout requests to the IMF by countries who
have accepted "predatory Chinese infrastructure financing."
This has angered the Chinese, who of course would like to have the IMF
bail out their debt trap countries, so that in effect the IMF would be
funding China's BRI projects in all the countries.
According to a lengthy analysis in the South China Morning Post:
<QUOTE>"Unexpectedly, just five days after Pakistan’s
elections, [US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo opposed an IMF
bailout package to Pakistan. He argued that American taxpayer
dollars are part of IMF funding and therefore the US government
would not allow a bailout package for Pakistan that could be used
to repay Chinese creditors or the government of China. This is the
first time the US government has openly made a move that is
tantamount to attacking Pakistan-China economic cooperation. ...
Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s recent statement is a major blow
to US-Pakistan relations. This does not bode well for peace and
stability in Afghanistan because now Pakistan will not be
motivated to cooperate with the US government anymore on the
Afghan front.
Given that the US is a major power broker in the IMF, its
opposition will effectively thwart a bailout package for
Pakistan. The country will have to explore other options to secure
the funds needed to stimulate its economy. Unfortunately, there
are not many countries or funding organisations that can offer
Pakistan a generous financial bailout. Thus, Pakistan would be
left with no choice but to ask for help from its all-weather
friend – China. ...
After the probable refusal of IMF bailout package, Pakistan will
be seeking additional loans of US$12 billion from China. ...
Hence, Pakistan will further be pushed towards economic dependence
on China. If it is unable to repay Chinese loans, it could end up
leasing its assets, such as Gwadar Port, to China. This model has
already worked with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
The US decision to block the IMF bailout has effectively put
Pakistan on the path to becoming a Chinese economic colony. This
will certainly not help the US in increasing its influence in
South Asia and Indochina, but will rather immensely increase the
influence of China in South Asia."<END QUOTE>
The analysis refers to the Sri Lanka example, where Sri Lanka was
unable to make payments on money loaned by China for the Hambantota
Seaport. As a result, Sri Lanka was forced to give control of
Hambantota to China for 99 years. In addition, there is now a large
Chinese enclave surrounding the seaport of thousands of Chinese
workers and families that will be there forever.
So the above analysis worries that all of Pakistan is on the path to
becoming a "Chinese economic colony." The implied solution is that
the US and the IMF should rush to Pakistan's rescue and give them the
money to repay their all-weather friend China.
It's actually still possible that the IMF will lend Pakistan the
money. Theoretically, the IMF is an indpendent organization, located
in Washington, but not controlled in any way by Washington political
policy. Theoretically, the IMF should not be swayed in its decision
by the way the money will be used -- to repay China.
As I've been writing for the last ten years, Generational Dynamics
predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world
war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part
of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the
bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine
and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and
Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other.
Whether the IMF lends money to Pakistan or not, it is not possible for
the US and Pakistan to become "friends" in anything like the sense
that China and Pakistan are "all-weather friends." Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Xinhua and South China Morning Post
Related Articles:
- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
- Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
- Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
- China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
- Execution of two of China's citizens in Pakistan raises concerns about CPEC (10-Jun-2017)
- Terror attack in Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan, kills 75 (09-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, China,
Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Saindak Copper-Gold project, Metallurgical Corporation of China, MCC,
Kashgar, Xinjiang, Gwadar seaport, Masood Khalid, Li Wei,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
