Here is my prediction map:
First I recognize all states that Donald Trump lost by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost in 1992 or later. Those are the same states. They are in very deep red, and approval ratings for President Trump are consistently awful in every one of them. On the other side I have all the states that Donald Trump won by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost by 5% or less beginning in 2008, but not in any state in which he got less than 47% of the vote in 2016 (Utah -- in green) You will see why I have those conditions.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;8&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;6;8&CA=1;55;8&CO=0;9;6&CT=1;7;8&DE=1;3;8&DC=1;3;8&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;5&HI=1;4;8&ID=2;4;8&IL=1;20;8&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=2;6;8&KY=2;8;8&LA=2;8;8&MD=1;10;8&MA=1;11;8&MI=0;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=2;6;8&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=0;4;5&NJ=1;14;8&NM=0;5;6&NY=1;29;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;8&OH=0;18;5&OK=2;7;8&OR=1;7;8&PA=0;20;5&RI=1;4;8&SC=2;9;8&SD=2;3;8&TN=2;11;8&TX=0;38;4&UT=3;6;5&VT=1;3;8&VA=-;13;5&WA=1;12;8&WV=2;5;8&WI=0;10;5&WY=2;3;8&ME=0;2;5&ME1=1;1;8&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;8&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=2;1;8)
Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
If you wonder about Utah, a state that President Trump could get less than 47% of the vote and in which he gets low approval is vulnerable to a third-party or independent campaign, if not a likely pickup for any Democrat. Utah Democrats know this, and given the choice between wasting their votes for the Democratic nominee or voting for a third-party nominee they might vote for the conservative alternative to Trump. I'd prefer that my state's electoral votes go to the Libertarian or some vanity candidate than to Trump.
Now in strong red (60%) I must put New Mexico, which was at twice the usual margin of error, voted for Dubya in 2004; Colorado and Virginia, which seem to have voted about as strongly for Hillary Clinton as for Obama, Trump is doing execrably in all three states in polling. Colorado and Virginia both went for Dubya, but that won't be relevant in 2020. Less-bright red applies to four states that have either never voted for any Republican nominee since 1988 (Minnesota) or have done so only once (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) and have a re-elect/do not re-elect poll indicating that they would go decisively against Trump. States in which Trump
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;8&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;6;8&CA=1;55;8&CO=1;9;6&CT=1;7;8&DE=1;3;8&DC=1;3;8&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;5&HI=1;4;8&ID=2;4;8&IL=1;20;8&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=2;6;8&KY=2;8;8&LA=2;8;8&MD=1;10;8&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;8&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;8&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=2;3;8&OH=0;18;5&OK=2;7;8&OR=1;7;8&PA=0;20;5&RI=1;4;8&SC=2;9;8&SD=2;3;8&TN=2;11;8&TX=0;38;4&UT=3;6;5&VT=1;3;8&VA=1;13;6&WA=1;12;8&WV=2;5;8&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;8&ME=0;2;5&ME1=1;1;8&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;8&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=2;1;8)
Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
I'm sure you want to see some not-so-deep blue on the map. The problem is that Trump is underwater in every state on this map still in gray. That includes four states that Republicans have not lost since 2000 but in which Trump is underwater (Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and Texas), Obama actually won Indiana, Nebraska-02, and North Carolina in 2008, so those states can go for the right Democrat or against the wrong Republican.
...Execrable polls for Trump based on re-elect or not to re-elect put Arizona and Ohio in pink. There is no such poll for Pennsylvania or Nevada, but I can't imagine anything else for Pennsylvania or Nevada. Maine at-large is a good analogue to New Hampshire, so I put it in this category. Finally, I can't quite categorize Florida, Iowa, or Maine-02, so they are in white.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;8&AZ=1;11;2&AR=2;6;8&CA=1;55;8&CO=1;9;6&CT=1;7;8&DE=1;3;8&DC=1;3;8&FL=4;29;1&GA=2;16;4&HI=1;4;8&ID=2;4;8&IL=1;20;8&IN=2;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=2;6;8&KY=2;8;8&LA=2;8;8&MD=1;10;8&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;8&MO=2;10;4&MT=2;3;4&NV=1;6;2&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;8&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;29;7&NC=2;15;2&ND=2;3;8&OH=1;18;2&OK=2;7;8&OR=1;7;8&PA=1;20;2&RI=1;4;8&SC=2;9;8&SD=2;3;8&TN=2;11;8&TX=2;38;4&UT=3;6;5&VT=1;3;8&VA=1;13;6&WA=1;12;8&WV=2;5;8&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;8&ME=1;2;2&ME1=1;1;8&ME2=4;1;1&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;8&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;8)
Really-strong Trump 95
Normally R but feebly anti-Trump 68
Usually R but feebly anti-Trump this time 27
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Real swing states barely against Trump 36
Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020 59 (note change)
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
First I recognize all states that Donald Trump lost by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost in 1992 or later. Those are the same states. They are in very deep red, and approval ratings for President Trump are consistently awful in every one of them. On the other side I have all the states that Donald Trump won by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost by 5% or less beginning in 2008, but not in any state in which he got less than 47% of the vote in 2016 (Utah -- in green) You will see why I have those conditions.
Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
If you wonder about Utah, a state that President Trump could get less than 47% of the vote and in which he gets low approval is vulnerable to a third-party or independent campaign, if not a likely pickup for any Democrat. Utah Democrats know this, and given the choice between wasting their votes for the Democratic nominee or voting for a third-party nominee they might vote for the conservative alternative to Trump. I'd prefer that my state's electoral votes go to the Libertarian or some vanity candidate than to Trump.
Now in strong red (60%) I must put New Mexico, which was at twice the usual margin of error, voted for Dubya in 2004; Colorado and Virginia, which seem to have voted about as strongly for Hillary Clinton as for Obama, Trump is doing execrably in all three states in polling. Colorado and Virginia both went for Dubya, but that won't be relevant in 2020. Less-bright red applies to four states that have either never voted for any Republican nominee since 1988 (Minnesota) or have done so only once (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) and have a re-elect/do not re-elect poll indicating that they would go decisively against Trump. States in which Trump
Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
I'm sure you want to see some not-so-deep blue on the map. The problem is that Trump is underwater in every state on this map still in gray. That includes four states that Republicans have not lost since 2000 but in which Trump is underwater (Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and Texas), Obama actually won Indiana, Nebraska-02, and North Carolina in 2008, so those states can go for the right Democrat or against the wrong Republican.
...Execrable polls for Trump based on re-elect or not to re-elect put Arizona and Ohio in pink. There is no such poll for Pennsylvania or Nevada, but I can't imagine anything else for Pennsylvania or Nevada. Maine at-large is a good analogue to New Hampshire, so I put it in this category. Finally, I can't quite categorize Florida, Iowa, or Maine-02, so they are in white.
Really-strong Trump 95
Normally R but feebly anti-Trump 68
Usually R but feebly anti-Trump this time 27
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Real swing states barely against Trump 36
Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020 59 (note change)
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.