Who Can Beat Trump?

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-21-2018, 03:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Remember also Bob suffers from the condition of subscribing to Whig History.  Which is why his presence on a forum discussing cyclical generational driven history is somewhat puzzling. I would consider subscribing to even the barest bones of S&H theory to require the rejection of the notion of liner 'progress'.   I have long maintained that history only has the appearance of 'progressive movement' (not to be confused with the Progressive Movement--which is just an American branding of Neo-Marxist socialism).  In short since history is written by the victors, the victors always proclaim themselves to be the bearers of progress.

Hmm.  I consider the Industrial Age (chemical weapons, printed information, democracy) to be quite distinct from the Agricultural (muscle powered weapons, written information, hereditary to militaristic kings).  The S&H crises of Western Civilization where primarily to implement the Industrial Age.  As such there is a clear (Yes Whiggish) arrow of progress favoring democracy and human right over kings and military values.  If anything, the Industrial Age proved economic values able to defeat military values on the killing fields.

Thus, S&H is basically about the implementation of Enlightenment values.  New values defeat old.

Whether the Industrial Age pattern continues into whatever comes next (nuclear weapons, computerized information, direct vote democracy?) is open.  Right now, the capitalist elite and post Communist tyrants are having their innings.  The arrow of progress in favor of human rights and democracy is very hard to find, not at all obvious.  The idea of all men being created equal is being quashed by selfish tribalism and greed.  This is generally the case, with conservatives resisting change well for three of the four turnings.

I am assuming global warming, limited resources and taking care of an ever increasing population are problems that will eventually have to be solved.  The existing elites with existing ways of profiting seem to be putting off acknowledging these problems.  They wish to continue the gravy train, the old pattern which they profit from.  I don't think this will go on forever.  It can, however, last the lifetimes of the elites that currently hold power.  When this is no longer the case, the new values might triumph.

I am dubious that the Industrial Age pattern will hold in the age that comes next.  The lack of a domestic spiral of violence, the reluctance in the face of nuclear weapons for anyone to wage a crisis war, speak against the Industrial Age pattern holding.  The last awakening suggests the second turning will become the decisive time, not the fourth.  Things change.

I would just as soon see democracy and human rights prevail, that autocratic elitist governments continue to fade, that there be less kings, slaves and dictators.

Kinser seems to prefer otherwise, claiming the crumbs from the elite autocrats and tyrants.  As such, he has to remain blind to the side he is really on.  He hasn't really switched sides since his communist days.