08-21-2018, 05:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-21-2018, 05:59 PM by Eric the Green.)
Can Bernie beat The Donald in 2020? (if he's the nominee)
The blue tide is advancing, and that's good for Bernie. He is leading the pack for the nomination at this early stage, and polls report he's the most popular politician in America. He has name recognition which he didn't have before his previous presidential run. Trump's approval rating hovers around 40%, and he's losing approval in several key states that he won in 2016, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Bernie did well in the primaries in many of those states, suggesting he may be able to carry the Rust Belt because of his appeal to the working class. His stands on issues are appealing to the rising generation and many who are impatient with politics as usual. He is right that the country has become hostage to an oligarchy, and that better spending priorities and higher taxes on the rich would improve lives. He has been on the correct side of issues for decades, according to his followers. His frugality is no worse than Trump's. He is a good candidate, and his score on my horoscope system is pretty good-- not as good as I originally thought, but still 14-7. He is articulate and honest and generally likable. He was an athlete in youth and is young for his age.
On the other side of the ledger, he is getting old and may have trouble running and winning at 79 years old. Polls that show him up high now could change, just as they did for Hillary. His acceptance of the label "democratic socialism" is a red flag and possible slogan to use against him in a nation full of politicians and voters addicted to free market nostrums. His policies are denounced as impractical and impossible to pay for. Young people and ethnic voters don't vote as much as older white people do. He gets stuck in ruts in his speeches and slogans, and comes across sometimes as an aloof professor. Plus, he would have to beat the odds on my scoring system, since only once in 170 years has a candidate been elected who was not favored by BOTH the mutual candidate scores AND the new moon before election indicator.
On the other hand, still looking at my system, the scores are close between Trump (9-4) and Sanders (14-7), and Sanders has a higher positive number. A miracle could happen, if Uranus' square to the Ascendant from below (but not at the Nadir) indicates a rebellion that overturns the party in power, as it did in 2016 for the first time ever, in a chart that resembled Trump's, and will again in 2020, in a chart that resembles McAuliffe's. So far this is a one-time event, so it's no basis for an empirical pattern. The other caveat is Jupiter's conjunction to Saturn in Dec.2020, a conjunction that 7 times out of 11 has coincided with the party in power losing, including every zero presidential election year since 1960. The 4 times that it did not, was when the dominant party was too entrenched (1820, 1880, 1900 and 1940, although 1880 was a very close election). So this could help whoever the Democrats nominate.
Overall, I cannot really predict definitely that Sanders would lose (as I implied in my other post), but I think the odds are against him.
The blue tide is advancing, and that's good for Bernie. He is leading the pack for the nomination at this early stage, and polls report he's the most popular politician in America. He has name recognition which he didn't have before his previous presidential run. Trump's approval rating hovers around 40%, and he's losing approval in several key states that he won in 2016, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Bernie did well in the primaries in many of those states, suggesting he may be able to carry the Rust Belt because of his appeal to the working class. His stands on issues are appealing to the rising generation and many who are impatient with politics as usual. He is right that the country has become hostage to an oligarchy, and that better spending priorities and higher taxes on the rich would improve lives. He has been on the correct side of issues for decades, according to his followers. His frugality is no worse than Trump's. He is a good candidate, and his score on my horoscope system is pretty good-- not as good as I originally thought, but still 14-7. He is articulate and honest and generally likable. He was an athlete in youth and is young for his age.
On the other side of the ledger, he is getting old and may have trouble running and winning at 79 years old. Polls that show him up high now could change, just as they did for Hillary. His acceptance of the label "democratic socialism" is a red flag and possible slogan to use against him in a nation full of politicians and voters addicted to free market nostrums. His policies are denounced as impractical and impossible to pay for. Young people and ethnic voters don't vote as much as older white people do. He gets stuck in ruts in his speeches and slogans, and comes across sometimes as an aloof professor. Plus, he would have to beat the odds on my scoring system, since only once in 170 years has a candidate been elected who was not favored by BOTH the mutual candidate scores AND the new moon before election indicator.
On the other hand, still looking at my system, the scores are close between Trump (9-4) and Sanders (14-7), and Sanders has a higher positive number. A miracle could happen, if Uranus' square to the Ascendant from below (but not at the Nadir) indicates a rebellion that overturns the party in power, as it did in 2016 for the first time ever, in a chart that resembled Trump's, and will again in 2020, in a chart that resembles McAuliffe's. So far this is a one-time event, so it's no basis for an empirical pattern. The other caveat is Jupiter's conjunction to Saturn in Dec.2020, a conjunction that 7 times out of 11 has coincided with the party in power losing, including every zero presidential election year since 1960. The 4 times that it did not, was when the dominant party was too entrenched (1820, 1880, 1900 and 1940, although 1880 was a very close election). So this could help whoever the Democrats nominate.
Overall, I cannot really predict definitely that Sanders would lose (as I implied in my other post), but I think the odds are against him.