Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

The "Show-Me State" shows something about Trump prospects for re-election.

Missouri

All adults
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Registered voters
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/electio...d_nn_tw_ma

The "44" does not stand for one of the most scenic stretches of Interstate highway in America.

I go with registered voters at this stage over 'adults' because registered voters have done something to show a willingness to vote. Missouri went 56-38 for Trump in 2016, so the state looks as if it will be in contest in 2020 as it was in 2008. The closest state that I can think of to Missouri in its Presidential politics as an analogue is Georgia. Missouri has a large share of fundamentalist or evangelical Christians outside of the two giant urban areas (St. Louis and Kansas City), portions of which are in Missouri, that combine to be about as politically important in Missouri as Atlanta is in Georgia. To win the state, Trump must win the vast majority of the Undecided. With the large number of fundamentalist and evangelical Christians (President Trump's one reliable demographic of voters, as he might be unable to rely upon the farm and ranch vote), such is obviously possible. Note well: opinions on whether the tariffs will hurt or help the American economy are split in Missouri. St. Louis is a one of the best analogues... to Detroit.

Missouri is far enough from the national average on the R side that it cannot determine whether Trump wins or loses a re-election bid. See also Indiana and Montana.

Focus on this poll is the Senate race involving Claire McCaskill D, inc), who is vulnerable. It is even, but the Democratic incumbent has an edge if third-Party alternatives are included.



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.