My projection two years and two months before Election 2020:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;2&AZ=1;11;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;2&GA=1;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;2&IA=1;6;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;2&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;7&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;2&MT=2;3;2&NV=1;6;5&NH=1;4;7&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;2&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;5&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;7&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;2&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;2&UT=2;6;2&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;7&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=1;1;2&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;2&NE2=1;1;2&NE3=2;1;7)
Strong Democrat (10% or more) 247
Weak Democrat (5-9.99%) 81
Shaky Democrat (0-4.99%) 47
Shaky Trrimp (0-4.99%) 88
Weak Trump (5-9.99%) 40
Strong Trump (10% or more) 28
Rationale: Trump will be crushed in any state in which his approval is under 40% unless the state has gone for a Republican two or more times on the last five elections, in which case the state appears in medium red. This accounts for all states with atrocious polls for the President. I put Florida in pink because the ceiling for Democrats is traditionally rather low and North Carolina in pink because I have no really-recent polls and the state went for Obama, barely, in 2008.
Light blue is for states in which Republicans usually have huge advantages, but for which polling suggests "not this time". I saw a favorability poll out of Alaska that was awful for Trump, and at this stage it is hard to distinguish the difference between approval and favorability. If I see lots of polls with Trump approval between 45 and 49 in approval fluctuating from just below to just above disapproval I am coloring the state light blue. Negative polls for Trump in Louisiana and South Carolina are old and unreliable, and I don't trust them so I am going to color those states in light blue for now. Utah is in light blue because of the result that Evan McMullin got in 2016 there; I see Trump vulnerable there, especially if Democrats choose to not waste their Presidential votes on a Democratic nominee with no chance in favor of some Third Party conservative or if the LDS hierarchy endorses such a nominee. A Democrat has no chance of winning Utah.
That Trump is doing so badly in Georgia suggests that most Southern states are not going for him as strongly as they usually do. I've seen evidence of shaky numbers for Trump in the High Plains states except Oklahoma. And, yes -- Idaho is Idaho, Oklahoma is Oklahoma, West Virginia is West Virginia, and Wyoming is Wyoming -- and Kentucky is a judgment call on my part.
Strong Democrat (10% or more) 247
Weak Democrat (5-9.99%) 81
Shaky Democrat (0-4.99%) 47
Shaky Trrimp (0-4.99%) 88
Weak Trump (5-9.99%) 40
Strong Trump (10% or more) 28
Rationale: Trump will be crushed in any state in which his approval is under 40% unless the state has gone for a Republican two or more times on the last five elections, in which case the state appears in medium red. This accounts for all states with atrocious polls for the President. I put Florida in pink because the ceiling for Democrats is traditionally rather low and North Carolina in pink because I have no really-recent polls and the state went for Obama, barely, in 2008.
Light blue is for states in which Republicans usually have huge advantages, but for which polling suggests "not this time". I saw a favorability poll out of Alaska that was awful for Trump, and at this stage it is hard to distinguish the difference between approval and favorability. If I see lots of polls with Trump approval between 45 and 49 in approval fluctuating from just below to just above disapproval I am coloring the state light blue. Negative polls for Trump in Louisiana and South Carolina are old and unreliable, and I don't trust them so I am going to color those states in light blue for now. Utah is in light blue because of the result that Evan McMullin got in 2016 there; I see Trump vulnerable there, especially if Democrats choose to not waste their Presidential votes on a Democratic nominee with no chance in favor of some Third Party conservative or if the LDS hierarchy endorses such a nominee. A Democrat has no chance of winning Utah.
That Trump is doing so badly in Georgia suggests that most Southern states are not going for him as strongly as they usually do. I've seen evidence of shaky numbers for Trump in the High Plains states except Oklahoma. And, yes -- Idaho is Idaho, Oklahoma is Oklahoma, West Virginia is West Virginia, and Wyoming is Wyoming -- and Kentucky is a judgment call on my part.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.