09-23-2018, 10:38 PM
*** 24-Sep-18 World View -- Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election
****
![[Image: g180206b.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180206b.gif)
Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean
People in the Maldives islands today are in something of a shock, as
the results of Sunday's presidential elections appear to indicate that
the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen has decisively lost to his
opponent, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
With more than 80% of the ballots countred on Sunday night, Solih was
winning by 58-41% of the vote. The results will be announced
officially on Friday, but this lead 17% lead is thought to be
insurmountable.
The Maldives is a 1,200 island archipelago in the India Ocean at the
southern tip of India. More than 260,000 of the Maldives' 400,000
people were eligible to vote at about 400 polling stations across the
islands. Voters also stood in long lines in Malaysia, the U.K., India
and Sri Lanka, where the opposition had encouraged overseas Maldivians
to participate.
The reason that everyone was expecting Yameen to win easily is because
he's used violence, human rights abuse, and suppression to guarantee
his victory. He jailed many of his political opponents on phony
"terrorism" charges, and rolled back press freedom.
Some political opponents have been in jail since 2015, including
Yameen's own half-brother. In February of this year, the Supreme
Court ruled that they should be set free. Yameen first announced that
he would honor the court's decision, but then changed his mind. He
declared a national state of emergency, and then sent the police to
arrest two of judges. The other three judges then decided that they
would reverse their decision and leave the political opponents in
jail.
On Saturday evening, the night before the election, police raided the
main campaign office of the opposition presidential candidate Ibrahim
Mohamed Solih on Saturday, saying they had acted to prevent "illegal
activities."
Even so, Sunday's election went a lot better than anyone expected,
without a lot of obvious election-rigging, because the United States
and the European Union had threatened sanctions. The European Union
said in July it was ready to impose travel bans and asset freezes on
individuals if the situation did not improve. The US State Department
this month warned it would "consider appropriate measures" if the
election was not free and fair.
Solih declared victory on Sunday evening:
<QUOTE>"This is a moment of happiness, a moment of hope, a
moment of history. For many of us this has been a difficult
journey, a journey that has led to a prison cells or years of
exile.
It's been a journey of a breakdown of government institutions.
But it's also been a journey that has ended at the ballot box. I
must thank all those people who have struggled for this
cause."<END QUOTE>
However, Yameen has not made any statement. There's a great deal of
tension and a sense of crisis in Malé, the capital city, because many
people are afraid that Yameen will do something violent in the next
couple of days to reverse the election results. Mihaaru.com (Maldives) and
Washington Post and Al Jazeera and CNN
****
**** Yameen's defeat is also a defeat for China's 'debt trap diplomacy'
****
Both Sri Lanka and the Maldives, both in the Indian Ocean just south
of the tip of India, have long had close relationships with India.
However, both countries have become closer to China in the last ten
years, alarming India.
The debt trap story of Sri Lanka has been told many times. China
funded the development of Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport, and when Sri
Lanka couldn't pay its debt, China took control of the seaport and
substantial land in the region, creating a large enclave of Chinese
workers and their families.
Many in the Maldives are acutely aware of what happened to Sri Lanka,
of course, and they're afraid that Abdulla Yameen has already put
their country on the same course, with a debt trap of its own.
Already, China has loaned $830 million for an upgrade to the airport.
The Chinese are also building a 25-story apartment complex and a
hospital. These Chinese projects account for some 70% of the
country's total debt, and $92 million a year in payments to China,
roughly 10% of the entire budget.
Then there's the question of corruption. I 2014-15, Yameen's tourism
minister leased out more than 50 islands and lagoons to developers
without public bidding. There are signs that members of Yameen's own
family are heavily involved in China's infrastructure projects.
We've written about many countries where the leaders refuse to step
down, and corruption is often the reason. Typically, the leader's
family and cronies benefit from fat kickbacks and bribes, but those
are never revealed as long as the leader is in power, and can use
violence and human rights abuses to suppress that information. But
once somebody else takes power, the corruption can be revealed, and
the cronies become eligible to be jailed or executed.
So that's another reason why some people fear a major crisis in the
Maldives in the next few days. If Yameen has followed this corruption
path, and there are signs that he has, then turning power over to
Solih puts himself, his family and his cronies at risk of losing their
freedom or their lives. Guardian (London) and BBC and Foreign Policy (21-Mar) and AFP
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Maldives, Abdulla Yameen,
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih,
China, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election
- Yameen's defeat is also a defeat for China's 'debt trap diplomacy'
****
**** Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election
****
Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean
People in the Maldives islands today are in something of a shock, as
the results of Sunday's presidential elections appear to indicate that
the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen has decisively lost to his
opponent, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
With more than 80% of the ballots countred on Sunday night, Solih was
winning by 58-41% of the vote. The results will be announced
officially on Friday, but this lead 17% lead is thought to be
insurmountable.
The Maldives is a 1,200 island archipelago in the India Ocean at the
southern tip of India. More than 260,000 of the Maldives' 400,000
people were eligible to vote at about 400 polling stations across the
islands. Voters also stood in long lines in Malaysia, the U.K., India
and Sri Lanka, where the opposition had encouraged overseas Maldivians
to participate.
The reason that everyone was expecting Yameen to win easily is because
he's used violence, human rights abuse, and suppression to guarantee
his victory. He jailed many of his political opponents on phony
"terrorism" charges, and rolled back press freedom.
Some political opponents have been in jail since 2015, including
Yameen's own half-brother. In February of this year, the Supreme
Court ruled that they should be set free. Yameen first announced that
he would honor the court's decision, but then changed his mind. He
declared a national state of emergency, and then sent the police to
arrest two of judges. The other three judges then decided that they
would reverse their decision and leave the political opponents in
jail.
On Saturday evening, the night before the election, police raided the
main campaign office of the opposition presidential candidate Ibrahim
Mohamed Solih on Saturday, saying they had acted to prevent "illegal
activities."
Even so, Sunday's election went a lot better than anyone expected,
without a lot of obvious election-rigging, because the United States
and the European Union had threatened sanctions. The European Union
said in July it was ready to impose travel bans and asset freezes on
individuals if the situation did not improve. The US State Department
this month warned it would "consider appropriate measures" if the
election was not free and fair.
Solih declared victory on Sunday evening:
<QUOTE>"This is a moment of happiness, a moment of hope, a
moment of history. For many of us this has been a difficult
journey, a journey that has led to a prison cells or years of
exile.
It's been a journey of a breakdown of government institutions.
But it's also been a journey that has ended at the ballot box. I
must thank all those people who have struggled for this
cause."<END QUOTE>
However, Yameen has not made any statement. There's a great deal of
tension and a sense of crisis in Malé, the capital city, because many
people are afraid that Yameen will do something violent in the next
couple of days to reverse the election results. Mihaaru.com (Maldives) and
Washington Post and Al Jazeera and CNN
****
**** Yameen's defeat is also a defeat for China's 'debt trap diplomacy'
****
Both Sri Lanka and the Maldives, both in the Indian Ocean just south
of the tip of India, have long had close relationships with India.
However, both countries have become closer to China in the last ten
years, alarming India.
The debt trap story of Sri Lanka has been told many times. China
funded the development of Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport, and when Sri
Lanka couldn't pay its debt, China took control of the seaport and
substantial land in the region, creating a large enclave of Chinese
workers and their families.
Many in the Maldives are acutely aware of what happened to Sri Lanka,
of course, and they're afraid that Abdulla Yameen has already put
their country on the same course, with a debt trap of its own.
Already, China has loaned $830 million for an upgrade to the airport.
The Chinese are also building a 25-story apartment complex and a
hospital. These Chinese projects account for some 70% of the
country's total debt, and $92 million a year in payments to China,
roughly 10% of the entire budget.
Then there's the question of corruption. I 2014-15, Yameen's tourism
minister leased out more than 50 islands and lagoons to developers
without public bidding. There are signs that members of Yameen's own
family are heavily involved in China's infrastructure projects.
We've written about many countries where the leaders refuse to step
down, and corruption is often the reason. Typically, the leader's
family and cronies benefit from fat kickbacks and bribes, but those
are never revealed as long as the leader is in power, and can use
violence and human rights abuses to suppress that information. But
once somebody else takes power, the corruption can be revealed, and
the cronies become eligible to be jailed or executed.
So that's another reason why some people fear a major crisis in the
Maldives in the next few days. If Yameen has followed this corruption
path, and there are signs that he has, then turning power over to
Solih puts himself, his family and his cronies at risk of losing their
freedom or their lives. Guardian (London) and BBC and Foreign Policy (21-Mar) and AFP
Related Articles:
- Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean (07-Feb-2018)
- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
- Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
- China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
- China establishes its first foreign military base, in Djibouti (13-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Maldives, Abdulla Yameen,
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih,
China, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
