10-04-2018, 10:49 PM
*** 5-Oct-18 World View -- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
****
![[Image: g171008b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171008b.jpg)
Idlib Syria (AFP)
For months, international observers have been fearing a massive
humanitarian disaster in Syria, as the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad prepares to launch an attack on Idlib province, the
last stronghold of the opposition rebels, backed by Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah.
The al-Assad regime has already recaptured Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
using Vladimir Putin's "Grozny Model," which forces all the women and
children out into the open so that they be slaughtered en
masse. Al-Assad enhanced and upgraded the technique into what we
might call "Grozny Model 2.0," using chlorine gas to force women and
children out of their basement hiding places, and then use Sarin gas
and barrel bombs as needed to slaughter as many as possible.
Many of the civilians and opposition forces in Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daara fled with their families to Idlib province, as possibly the only
safe place left in Syria, with the result that the population of Idlib
province doubled to about 3 million people. Turkey already hosts 3.5
million Syrian refugees, and an assault on Idlib would create a
massive humanitarian problem, with perhaps a million people flooding
across the border into Turkey, and from there into Europe, creating an
international crisis.
Turkey was desperate to stop al-Assad's Idlib assault because it would
be a disaster for Turkey, so Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan
lobbied Putin to cancel the assault. Turkey, Russia and Iran held a
meeting in Tehran on September 7, but Turkey's proposal was rejected
by the other two parties. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
) Reuters and Irin News and Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)
****
**** Turkey and Russia reach an agreement to prevent the Idlib assault
****
However, on September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they
reached an agreement:
<QUOTE>"The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as
guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian
Arab Republic, ... in order to stabilize the situation in the
Idlib de-escalation area as soon as possible, have agreed on the
following:
1. The Idlip de-escalation area will be preserved and Turkish
observation posts will be fortified and continue to function.
2. The Russian Federation will take all necessary measures to
ensure that military operations and attacks on Idlib will be
avoided and the existing status quo will be maintained.
3. A demilitarized zone, 15-20 kms deep in the de-escalation area
will be established.
4. The delineation of exact lines of the demilitarised zone will
be determined through further consultations.
5. All radical terrorist groups will be removed from the
demilitarised zone by October 15.
6. All tanks, MLRS, artillery and mortars belonging to conflicting
parties will be withdrawn from the demilitarised zone by October
10, 2018.
7. Turkish Armed Forces and the military police of the Armed
Forces of the Russian Federation will conduct coordinated patrols
and monitoring with UAVs along the boundaries of the demilitarised
zone. ...
8. Transit traffic on the routes M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5
(Aleppo-Hama) will be restored by the end of 2018.
9. Effective measures will be taken for ensuring sustainable
ceasefire regime within the Idlib de-escalation area. In this
regard, the functions of the Joint Iranian-Russian-Turkish
Coordination Center will be enhanced.
10. The two sides reiterated their determination to combat
terrorism in Syria in all forms and manifestations."<END QUOTE>
Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government were not part of this
agreement, but it has become Russia's responsibility to hold al-Assad
back from launching the assault.
The heart of this agreement is that it places an enormous
responsibility on Turkey. All rebels in the demilitarised zone must
withdraw heavy arms by October 10, and radical groups must leave by
October 15, and Turkey is reponsible for making that happen.
Unfortunately, with only 5 days left until the first deadline, little
has changed on the ground since the September 17 agreement except for
contentious negotiations among the groups in Idlib. There's been
almost no handover of weapons or territory.
Of the 3 million people in Idlib, it's estimated that about 60,000 are
in anti-Assad militias controlling different cities and villages.
Some of the moderate rebel groups have begun withdrawing their forces
and heavy weapons from parts of the buffer zone. But the biggest
jihadi group, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which
controls 60% of Idlib, has not yet agreed to withdraw, although it's
still negotiating with Turkey. The National (UAE) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
****
**** The inevitable clash of the protagonists
****
The Greeks invented tragedy, and three of four great tragic artists of
all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece,
with the fourth being Shakespeare. As a Greek, I understand tragedy
very well. The essence of Greek tragedy is that the tragic event it
not random, but is inevitable, because of the nature, the personality,
the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be
prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing
about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.
We can see those powerful forces in Syria today.
First we have Bashar al-Assad, a psychopathic monster and a member of
the Shia/Alawite community in Syria, a group that has had many wars
with Sunni Arabs, including Turks. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it
clear that he considers all Sunni's in Idlib, even the women and
children, to be terrorists who much be exterminated like cockroaches.
Al-Assad is the most Shakespearean of the protagonists in that he's
driven to commit a bigger genocide than his father, Hafez al-Assad.
Reports indicate that the al-Assad regime has been massing its army on
the border with Idlib. Putin has been holding al-Assad back from
assaulting Idlib, and al-Assad is looking for any excuse to attack.
If the agreement deadlines pass and Turkey has not completed its
tasks, then al-Assad will have the excuse he needs.
Second, we have Russia's president Vladimir Putin. I don't get the
feeling that Putin has any particular animus against either side in
Syria. He seems to view the war in Syria the same way that Henry David Thoreau watched in astonishment the war between the two armies,
one army of red ants
and another army of black ants.
Instead of ethnic animus, Putin seems to be have an entirely different
kind of motive for supporint al-Assad. Russia was completely shut out
of the Mideast in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two military bases in
the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the Hmeimim airbase, both of
them in Syria, in return for supporting al-Assad.
So Russia is holding al-Assad back for now, but when the dam breaks
and the Syrian army pours into Idlib, Russia will support al-Assad in
order to continue to control the two military bases.
And the third major protagonist is Turkey's president Erdogan.
Al-Assad and Erdogan share a deep vitriolic hatred of each other, as
do their respective populations. Erdogan truly wants to prevent
al-Assad's assault on Idlib because it will be a disaster for Turkey.
Iran is like Russia, having little vitriolic hatred for either side in
Syria, but wanting to establish an overland route from Iran through
Baghdad through Damascus to the Mediterranean Sea. For that, Iran is
supporting al-Assad.
Hezbollah is like a mindless puppet, where Iran is the puppetmaster.
Hezbollah will do whatever Iran tells it to do.
There are also lesser forces in Syria, including the United States and
Saudi Arabia. They play their parts in support of one group or
another, but they're subordinate to Syria, Russia and Turkey.
One day soon, all of these forces will clash and the inevitable final
act of the Greek tragedy will begin.
Al Jazeera and Digital Journal and Deutsche Welle and Al Jazeera
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny Model, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hezbollah,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripides, Shakespeare, Hafez al-Assad,
Henry David Thoreau, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
- Turkey and Russia reach an agreement to prevent the Idlib assault
- The inevitable clash of the protagonists
****
**** As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
****
Idlib Syria (AFP)
For months, international observers have been fearing a massive
humanitarian disaster in Syria, as the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad prepares to launch an attack on Idlib province, the
last stronghold of the opposition rebels, backed by Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah.
The al-Assad regime has already recaptured Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
using Vladimir Putin's "Grozny Model," which forces all the women and
children out into the open so that they be slaughtered en
masse. Al-Assad enhanced and upgraded the technique into what we
might call "Grozny Model 2.0," using chlorine gas to force women and
children out of their basement hiding places, and then use Sarin gas
and barrel bombs as needed to slaughter as many as possible.
Many of the civilians and opposition forces in Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daara fled with their families to Idlib province, as possibly the only
safe place left in Syria, with the result that the population of Idlib
province doubled to about 3 million people. Turkey already hosts 3.5
million Syrian refugees, and an assault on Idlib would create a
massive humanitarian problem, with perhaps a million people flooding
across the border into Turkey, and from there into Europe, creating an
international crisis.
Turkey was desperate to stop al-Assad's Idlib assault because it would
be a disaster for Turkey, so Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan
lobbied Putin to cancel the assault. Turkey, Russia and Iran held a
meeting in Tehran on September 7, but Turkey's proposal was rejected
by the other two parties. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
) Reuters and Irin News and Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)
****
**** Turkey and Russia reach an agreement to prevent the Idlib assault
****
However, on September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they
reached an agreement:
<QUOTE>"The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as
guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian
Arab Republic, ... in order to stabilize the situation in the
Idlib de-escalation area as soon as possible, have agreed on the
following:
1. The Idlip de-escalation area will be preserved and Turkish
observation posts will be fortified and continue to function.
2. The Russian Federation will take all necessary measures to
ensure that military operations and attacks on Idlib will be
avoided and the existing status quo will be maintained.
3. A demilitarized zone, 15-20 kms deep in the de-escalation area
will be established.
4. The delineation of exact lines of the demilitarised zone will
be determined through further consultations.
5. All radical terrorist groups will be removed from the
demilitarised zone by October 15.
6. All tanks, MLRS, artillery and mortars belonging to conflicting
parties will be withdrawn from the demilitarised zone by October
10, 2018.
7. Turkish Armed Forces and the military police of the Armed
Forces of the Russian Federation will conduct coordinated patrols
and monitoring with UAVs along the boundaries of the demilitarised
zone. ...
8. Transit traffic on the routes M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5
(Aleppo-Hama) will be restored by the end of 2018.
9. Effective measures will be taken for ensuring sustainable
ceasefire regime within the Idlib de-escalation area. In this
regard, the functions of the Joint Iranian-Russian-Turkish
Coordination Center will be enhanced.
10. The two sides reiterated their determination to combat
terrorism in Syria in all forms and manifestations."<END QUOTE>
Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government were not part of this
agreement, but it has become Russia's responsibility to hold al-Assad
back from launching the assault.
The heart of this agreement is that it places an enormous
responsibility on Turkey. All rebels in the demilitarised zone must
withdraw heavy arms by October 10, and radical groups must leave by
October 15, and Turkey is reponsible for making that happen.
Unfortunately, with only 5 days left until the first deadline, little
has changed on the ground since the September 17 agreement except for
contentious negotiations among the groups in Idlib. There's been
almost no handover of weapons or territory.
Of the 3 million people in Idlib, it's estimated that about 60,000 are
in anti-Assad militias controlling different cities and villages.
Some of the moderate rebel groups have begun withdrawing their forces
and heavy weapons from parts of the buffer zone. But the biggest
jihadi group, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which
controls 60% of Idlib, has not yet agreed to withdraw, although it's
still negotiating with Turkey. The National (UAE) and Sputnik News (Moscow)
****
**** The inevitable clash of the protagonists
****
The Greeks invented tragedy, and three of four great tragic artists of
all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece,
with the fourth being Shakespeare. As a Greek, I understand tragedy
very well. The essence of Greek tragedy is that the tragic event it
not random, but is inevitable, because of the nature, the personality,
the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be
prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing
about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.
We can see those powerful forces in Syria today.
First we have Bashar al-Assad, a psychopathic monster and a member of
the Shia/Alawite community in Syria, a group that has had many wars
with Sunni Arabs, including Turks. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it
clear that he considers all Sunni's in Idlib, even the women and
children, to be terrorists who much be exterminated like cockroaches.
Al-Assad is the most Shakespearean of the protagonists in that he's
driven to commit a bigger genocide than his father, Hafez al-Assad.
Reports indicate that the al-Assad regime has been massing its army on
the border with Idlib. Putin has been holding al-Assad back from
assaulting Idlib, and al-Assad is looking for any excuse to attack.
If the agreement deadlines pass and Turkey has not completed its
tasks, then al-Assad will have the excuse he needs.
Second, we have Russia's president Vladimir Putin. I don't get the
feeling that Putin has any particular animus against either side in
Syria. He seems to view the war in Syria the same way that Henry David Thoreau watched in astonishment the war between the two armies,
one army of red ants
and another army of black ants.
Instead of ethnic animus, Putin seems to be have an entirely different
kind of motive for supporint al-Assad. Russia was completely shut out
of the Mideast in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two military bases in
the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the Hmeimim airbase, both of
them in Syria, in return for supporting al-Assad.
So Russia is holding al-Assad back for now, but when the dam breaks
and the Syrian army pours into Idlib, Russia will support al-Assad in
order to continue to control the two military bases.
And the third major protagonist is Turkey's president Erdogan.
Al-Assad and Erdogan share a deep vitriolic hatred of each other, as
do their respective populations. Erdogan truly wants to prevent
al-Assad's assault on Idlib because it will be a disaster for Turkey.
Iran is like Russia, having little vitriolic hatred for either side in
Syria, but wanting to establish an overland route from Iran through
Baghdad through Damascus to the Mediterranean Sea. For that, Iran is
supporting al-Assad.
Hezbollah is like a mindless puppet, where Iran is the puppetmaster.
Hezbollah will do whatever Iran tells it to do.
There are also lesser forces in Syria, including the United States and
Saudi Arabia. They play their parts in support of one group or
another, but they're subordinate to Syria, Russia and Turkey.
One day soon, all of these forces will clash and the inevitable final
act of the Greek tragedy will begin.
Al Jazeera and Digital Journal and Deutsche Welle and Al Jazeera
Related Articles:
- Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria (18-Sep-2018)
- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib (05-Sep-2018)
- Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Book review review: Christopher Hitchens: 'God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything' (II) (03-Jun-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny Model, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hezbollah,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripides, Shakespeare, Hafez al-Assad,
Henry David Thoreau, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
