Election 2018

[Mikebert]

(10-29-2018, 05:11 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(10-28-2018, 11:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: FDR did not offer unity to the Nazis.
Lincoln did not offer unity to the confederates.
Washington did not offer unity to the King.
William did not offer unity to the Stewarts and Louis XIV
Elizabeth I did not offer unity to the Spanish or the Catholics.
Henry VII did not offer unity to Richard III.

One side won, the other lost. After that, a greater degree of unity was able to be created.

Most of the above people are clearly Industrial Age.  Thus, using violence as a solution would be expected. 

Eric is mostly right about how crises resolve, except the last one.  It's not FDR versus the Nazis. The conflict is *internal* not external, unless it involves invasion, in which case the external actor is now internal to the country being invaded. 

There is no seeking unity until one side prevails, but that does not have to be through violence.  For example, last time the crisis conflict was resolved electorally without violence over 1930-1934. By the 1934 election Democrats had won three elections in a row and Republicans were devastated, not to recover until the end of the 4T.  Unity had been achieved in 1934 because FDR could now withstand the hits the party in power takes in the non-presidential election, as Obama could not.

It is hard to see this as a major conflict because it was so fast. But the situation  today shows that it does not have to be fast.  This 4T the two sides have been fighting for 10 to 17 years, depending on when you choose to start the 4T. There is, at present, no clear-cut winner. The Republicans are in a position similar to where they were in 2006 and Democrats were in 2010. The election tomorrow will be another "battle" in this political war. Unless the polling is way off, Republicans look likely to lose the House next year, like Democrats in 2010. That is 2018 looks likely not to give the sort of final resolution of the internal political conflict that 1934 did. And given the prospect of a major bear market, possibly associated with financial crisis, we could well see another shift in the winds of fortune in this seemingly neverending political war.