11-20-2018, 11:52 PM
*** 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
****
![[Image: g181120b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181120b.jpg)
Xi Jinping arrives in Manila on Tuesday and receives military honors. (Manila Times)
On Tuesday, China's president Xi Jinping visited Philippines president
Rodrigo R. Duterte to sign 29 agreements. The agreements give China
permission to drill for oil and gas in the Philippines territorial
waters.
Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte has never made a secret of
the reason why he has repeatedly acceded to the demands of China's
president Xi Jinping, and why he's been giving up Philippines'
sovereignty to Scarborough Shoal and to other parts of the South China
Sea: He gave in to China because China threatened him militarily if he
didn't comply.
In fact, in May of last year, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat explicit.
Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil
and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war.
Duterte concluded:
<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>
So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.
Another part of Duterte's 2016 agreement with Xi was that China would
provide $24 billion in loans and investment for infrastructure
overhaul. Duterte used this promise of money from China to sell the
appeasement to the people of the Philippines. However, a recent
analysis revealed that China has only come through with a small
portion of the promised investments. According to one Philippines
analyst: "Duterte’s naivety with China has been a slam dunk strategic
coup for China, no doubt about it."
The 29 agreements that Xi and Duterte signed on Tuesday are being
described as "broad or vague, from cooperating in education, culture
and industrial park development to jointly promoting infrastructure,
agriculture cooperatives and establishing sanitation protocols for
shipping coconuts." Of the 38 projects that Xi and Duterte agreed to
in 2016, only four of them were among the commitments made on Tuesday.
Of particular significance is that one of the 29 deals is related to
oil and gas development in Philippines territorial waters. The
Philippines should receive 100% of the benefit, but China agreed to
enter into a 60-40 joint exploration arrangement with the Philippines.
Under the agreement, Manila will receive 60% of the oil and natural
gas deposits while Beijing will get the remaining 40%.
It remains to be seen whether China will honor that agreement, or will
renege on it and demand 100% of the oil and gas deposits for itself.
Reuters and Manila Times and Reuters and Bloomberg
****
**** New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
****
As I wrote in 2016, Duterte's "flip-flop" towards China couldn't last
because polls show that 54% of the Philippine people have a favorable
view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States.
Nonetheless, Duterte's flip-flop still makes sense after Xi Jinping's
threat to massacre the Philippines.
A new survey released on Tuesday by the Philippines social research
institution Social Weather Stations (SWS) shows that anti-China
sentiment continues to be extremely high.
This survey shows a great deal of trust and confidence in the United
States, but a great deal of distrust in China, which is not surprising
in view of China's increasingly belligerent and illegal military
actions in the South China Sea. Duterte's policies of increasing
appeasement of China's demands is creating a potentially explosive
situation that could lead to conflict in any of a number of scenarios.
And by the way, other surveys have shown that the Chinese people have
a great deal of contempt for the people of the Philippines. In 2012,
a Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed
that the Philippines "is China's inherent
territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is
an indisputable fact." The statement was later retracted, but it
illustrates the state of mind of the Chinese people toward the
Philippines.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So in this case, war is inevitable because
the Chinese people want a war.
Rodrigo Duterte and Donald Trump have something in common. They are
both aware that China is headed for war with their respective
countries. In both cases, their policies are little understood by the
mainstream media, but they make perfect sense when seen as an attempt,
perhaps even a desperate attempt, to try to prevent that war, and the
resulting world war, from occurring. And as I've said before, I'm not
going to criticize policies whose purpose is to prevent a world war,
even if a world war is 100% certain. Social Weather Survey (Philippines) and Coconuts Manila
****
**** China's 'temper tantrum diplomacy' at the APEC summit meeting
****
In my recent article on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Leaders’ Summit, held in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New
Guinea (PNG), over the weekend, I described some incidents of
extremely arrogant, belligerent behavior of Chinese officials at the
meeting. ( "19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarray after harsh US-China disagreements"
)
However, it turns out that China's behavior was far worse than I had
described. An article by Josh Rogin, who traveled with vice president
Mike Pence to the conference, described China's "temper tantrum
diplomacy, which was a series of aggressive, bullying, paranoid and
weird stunts to try to exert dominance and pressure everyone into
succumbing to its demands.
China's "weird stunts" included the following:
The more that I write about China, the more the message always comes
through of the extreme contempt that the Chinese people have for other
people -- not just Americans, but also people from Philippines,
Vietnam, Japan, India, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else.
This is an extremely dangerous situation that will not continue in
this way for much longer. Washington Post and White House
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal,
Social Weather Stations, SWS, Japan, Malaysia, Israel,
Josh Rogin, Mike Pence,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, China, Australia,
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Summit, APEC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
- New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
- China's 'temper tantrum diplomacy' at the APEC summit meeting
****
**** Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
****
Xi Jinping arrives in Manila on Tuesday and receives military honors. (Manila Times)
On Tuesday, China's president Xi Jinping visited Philippines president
Rodrigo R. Duterte to sign 29 agreements. The agreements give China
permission to drill for oil and gas in the Philippines territorial
waters.
Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte has never made a secret of
the reason why he has repeatedly acceded to the demands of China's
president Xi Jinping, and why he's been giving up Philippines'
sovereignty to Scarborough Shoal and to other parts of the South China
Sea: He gave in to China because China threatened him militarily if he
didn't comply.
In fact, in May of last year, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat explicit.
Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil
and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war.
Duterte concluded:
<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>
So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands.
Another part of Duterte's 2016 agreement with Xi was that China would
provide $24 billion in loans and investment for infrastructure
overhaul. Duterte used this promise of money from China to sell the
appeasement to the people of the Philippines. However, a recent
analysis revealed that China has only come through with a small
portion of the promised investments. According to one Philippines
analyst: "Duterte’s naivety with China has been a slam dunk strategic
coup for China, no doubt about it."
The 29 agreements that Xi and Duterte signed on Tuesday are being
described as "broad or vague, from cooperating in education, culture
and industrial park development to jointly promoting infrastructure,
agriculture cooperatives and establishing sanitation protocols for
shipping coconuts." Of the 38 projects that Xi and Duterte agreed to
in 2016, only four of them were among the commitments made on Tuesday.
Of particular significance is that one of the 29 deals is related to
oil and gas development in Philippines territorial waters. The
Philippines should receive 100% of the benefit, but China agreed to
enter into a 60-40 joint exploration arrangement with the Philippines.
Under the agreement, Manila will receive 60% of the oil and natural
gas deposits while Beijing will get the remaining 40%.
It remains to be seen whether China will honor that agreement, or will
renege on it and demand 100% of the oil and gas deposits for itself.
Reuters and Manila Times and Reuters and Bloomberg
****
**** New survey shows that Philippine people are anti-Chinese, pro-American
****
As I wrote in 2016, Duterte's "flip-flop" towards China couldn't last
because polls show that 54% of the Philippine people have a favorable
view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States.
Nonetheless, Duterte's flip-flop still makes sense after Xi Jinping's
threat to massacre the Philippines.
A new survey released on Tuesday by the Philippines social research
institution Social Weather Stations (SWS) shows that anti-China
sentiment continues to be extremely high.
- Opposition to government’s inaction on China’s intrusion in
claimed territories rises to 84%, up from 81% in June.
- 86% say that it is right to strengthen the military capability of
the Philippines, especially the Navy. This is up by 6 points from 80%
in June.
- 87% say it is important that the Philippines regains control of
the islands occupied by China in the South China Sea, up from 69% in
June.
- 65% are aware of China's abuses of Filipino fishermen, when these
they were fishing in Philippines territorial waters. China's coast
guard forced Philippines fishermen to turn over their catch to the
Chinese.
- Percentage of Philippine people having "much trust" in each
country: USA 70%, Japan 50%, Malaysia 40%, Israel 38%, China
27%.
This survey shows a great deal of trust and confidence in the United
States, but a great deal of distrust in China, which is not surprising
in view of China's increasingly belligerent and illegal military
actions in the South China Sea. Duterte's policies of increasing
appeasement of China's demands is creating a potentially explosive
situation that could lead to conflict in any of a number of scenarios.
And by the way, other surveys have shown that the Chinese people have
a great deal of contempt for the people of the Philippines. In 2012,
a Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed
that the Philippines "is China's inherent
territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is
an indisputable fact." The statement was later retracted, but it
illustrates the state of mind of the Chinese people toward the
Philippines.
As I've written many times, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by
masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of
politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the
attitudes of the people. So in this case, war is inevitable because
the Chinese people want a war.
Rodrigo Duterte and Donald Trump have something in common. They are
both aware that China is headed for war with their respective
countries. In both cases, their policies are little understood by the
mainstream media, but they make perfect sense when seen as an attempt,
perhaps even a desperate attempt, to try to prevent that war, and the
resulting world war, from occurring. And as I've said before, I'm not
going to criticize policies whose purpose is to prevent a world war,
even if a world war is 100% certain. Social Weather Survey (Philippines) and Coconuts Manila
****
**** China's 'temper tantrum diplomacy' at the APEC summit meeting
****
In my recent article on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Leaders’ Summit, held in Port Moresby, the capital city of Papua New
Guinea (PNG), over the weekend, I described some incidents of
extremely arrogant, belligerent behavior of Chinese officials at the
meeting. ( "19-Nov-18 World View -- APEC meeting ends in disarray after harsh US-China disagreements"
)
However, it turns out that China's behavior was far worse than I had
described. An article by Josh Rogin, who traveled with vice president
Mike Pence to the conference, described China's "temper tantrum
diplomacy, which was a series of aggressive, bullying, paranoid and
weird stunts to try to exert dominance and pressure everyone into
succumbing to its demands.
China's "weird stunts" included the following:
- China filibustered to prevent a joint statement from being
issued. When it was, to the disgust of the other diplomats, Chinese
officials broke out in applause.
- China banned all but Chinese media from Xi's meeting with leaders
of eight Pacific nations, even though many of the international
journalists already had credentials.<?li>
- Internet service crashed just as Mike Pence started speaking, and
mysteriously came back on just as Pence was finishing. It's believed
that the Chinese were behind this, but it can't be proven.
- They barged into the foreign ministry office, and only left when
the police arrive.
- They barged into other meetings, and yelled about countries
“scheming” against China.
The more that I write about China, the more the message always comes
through of the extreme contempt that the Chinese people have for other
people -- not just Americans, but also people from Philippines,
Vietnam, Japan, India, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else.
This is an extremely dangerous situation that will not continue in
this way for much longer. Washington Post and White House
Related Articles
- China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang (14-Oct-2018)
- China's claims to the South China Sea are amazingly vacuous (22-Sep-2018)
- New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea (11-Sep-2018)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
- China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal,
Social Weather Stations, SWS, Japan, Malaysia, Israel,
Josh Rogin, Mike Pence,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, China, Australia,
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Summit, APEC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
