Here is some old polling data asking the question in three states:
![[Image: ERaVLEO.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ERaVLEO.png)
This is from July, so this data is already obsolete.
Marist polls asking the question of "elect or not re-elect" went
Arizona 35-57
Florida 37-54
Ohio 34-58
in June.
All in all I suspect that those last three states are more Republican than the US as a whole, so the old Marist polls might now overstate current opinion on whether to elect or not re-elect the President. Arizona and Florida have shown themselves close to the national average, and the 8% margin that Trump won Ohio by will not hold up. I am guessing that the FoX News numbers show America with 6% more proclivity to vote for President Trump than Marist polls showed in June and July. So adding 6% to 're-elect' and take 4% from 'elect someone else', and one gets
AZ 41-51
FL 43-48
MI 34-56
MN 36-54
OH 40-52
WI 37-57
(Regrettably I have no numbers on any other states except for a poll in New Hampshire that I must reject for comparison due to some ambiguity as an analogue. Trump was doing badly there).
The variance from the national average with an assumption that the Marist polls are off by 6% from current reality (they may have been accurate in the summer, but that is past) are
AZ R+2
FL R+4
MI D+5
MN D+3
OH R+1
WI D+2
I would love to see results for some other states: Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, we may see a Presidency imploding in the wake of prison terms for some Trump associates.
This is from July, so this data is already obsolete.
Marist polls asking the question of "elect or not re-elect" went
Arizona 35-57
Florida 37-54
Ohio 34-58
in June.
All in all I suspect that those last three states are more Republican than the US as a whole, so the old Marist polls might now overstate current opinion on whether to elect or not re-elect the President. Arizona and Florida have shown themselves close to the national average, and the 8% margin that Trump won Ohio by will not hold up. I am guessing that the FoX News numbers show America with 6% more proclivity to vote for President Trump than Marist polls showed in June and July. So adding 6% to 're-elect' and take 4% from 'elect someone else', and one gets
AZ 41-51
FL 43-48
MI 34-56
MN 36-54
OH 40-52
WI 37-57
(Regrettably I have no numbers on any other states except for a poll in New Hampshire that I must reject for comparison due to some ambiguity as an analogue. Trump was doing badly there).
The variance from the national average with an assumption that the Marist polls are off by 6% from current reality (they may have been accurate in the summer, but that is past) are
AZ R+2
FL R+4
MI D+5
MN D+3
OH R+1
WI D+2
I would love to see results for some other states: Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, we may see a Presidency imploding in the wake of prison terms for some Trump associates.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.