12-19-2018, 11:41 PM
*** 20-Dec-18 World View -- DR Congo's Kabila manipulates election to stay in power as Ebola spreads
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** DR Congo's Joseph Kabila appoints his own personal 'Dmitry Medvedev' to stay in power
****
![[Image: g181219b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181219b.jpg)
Women walk past a campaign poster of Joseph Kabila’s chosen successor as president of DRC, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, in Kinshasa on Dec 18 (AFP)
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is scheduled to hold a
presidential election on Sunday, and this time, Joseph Kabila isn't a
candidate. That's because he's already been president for two 5-year
terms, and the constitution he can't run again.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had the same problem in 2008. After
serving two consecutive terms as president, Putin was no longer
constitutionally allowed to run for president again in 2008. So Putin
arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to win the election for president in
2008, so that Medvedev would appoint Putin as prime minister. In
2012, Putin admitted that the whole thing was a scam in order to keep
himself in power, and that Medvedev was just a puppet. He ran for
president again in 2012 and won, and then appointed Medvedev as prime
minister.
Joseph Kabila became president in 2001 after his father, Laurent
Kabila, was assassinated. He ran for reelection in 2006, and did the
same in 2011. When his mandate ran out in December, 2016, he refused
to step down. Instead, he pulled a breathtaking stunt by doing
everything possible to prevent new elections from taking place, and
then claimed that he couldn't step down because there hadn't been any
elections to select a president to replace him.
The country was close to civil war, but the Catholic Church intervened
and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held in December of 2017
to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila would really step
down. However, the agreement was a farce: It was signed by members of
Kabila's government, but it wasn't even signed by Kabila himself.
Kabila pulled the same stunt in December, 2017, by doing nothing to
prepare for an election, then said he couldn't step down, because
there hadn't been any elections.
So this time there's apparently going to be an election, but Kabila
has pulled a different stunt. He's arranged for his own puppet,
Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister, to run for
president. Shadary was responsible for a violent, deadly crackdown on
anti-Kabila protests in 2017, and so he's under sanctions by the
European Union.
Corruption in DRC is rampant. Kabila and his family own, either
partially or wholly, more than 80 companies and businesses
in the country and abroad. He and his
children own more than 71,000 hectares (175,444 acres) of farmland.
His family owns diamond mines, a part of the country's largest mobile
phone network, companies that mine mineral deposits, gold and
limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a share of the
country's banks, and a fast-food franchise. With tentacles reaching
into so many businesses, it's not surprising that Kabila is willing to
use any method -- massacres, atrocities, jailings, torture -- to stay
in power.
Few people doubt Kabila's plan -- that Shadary become president for a
term, so that Kabila can run again after Shadary's term ends, acting
as Kabila's puppet in the same way that Medvedev served as Putin's
puppet.
Shadary may lose the election. He has no charisma, and he has no
experience in politics. He's a nobody. However, he's expected to win
anyway because there are two major candidates running against him, and
over a dozen minor candidates, and they're expected to split the
opposition vote, giving Shadary (and Kabila) the victory.
Kabila has banned election rallies by the opposition. Al Jazeera and Council on Foreign Relations and Guardian (London)
Related Articles
****
**** Ebola outbreak in DR Congo worsens
****
Officials in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have now reported 549
total Ebola cases and 326 deaths. Eighty-two suspected cases are
under investigation.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), "The outbreak is
intensifying in Butembo and Katwa, and new clusters are emerging
elsewhere. Over the last 21 days (25 November to 16 December 2018),
120 confirmed and probable cases were reported from 14 health zones,
the majority of which were reported from the major urban centres and
towns in Katwa (27), Beni (27), Butembo (17), Komanda (16) and
Mabalako (12)."
The situation in North Kivu province is the worst possible scenario.
There is a major ethnic war in progress, and Ebola is now spreading in
the densely populated city of Beni, which became the epicenter of the
pandemic. However, the number of cases in Beni seems to have peaked,
while the disease has spread to the south and Butembo may be the new
epicenter.
The entire region is a war zone, and over one million people have been
driven from their homes by armed rebel groups, the Allied Democratic
Forces (ADF), fighting government troops allied with Joseph Kabila.
The fighting is preventing doctors and experts from reaching infected
people, in order to educate the population and do contact tracing.
Without contact tracing, there is no way to stop or slow the spread of
the disease.
The Ebola outbreak has been growing, but so far it's been confined to
DRC. North Kivu is on the border with Uganda, and many people cross
the border between Uganda and DRC each day. It's feared that Ebola
will cross the border with the people, but that hasn't happened yet.
According to one resident of the village of Mpondwe in Uganda, just
across a bridge from the village of Lhubiriha: "I'm scared. Ebola
hasn't reached our village but I hear it's coming." AFP and Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and AP and CNN
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Joseph Kabila, Laurent Kabila, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, North Kivu,
Beni, Butembo, Allied Democratic Forces, ADF,
Lhubiriha, Uganda, Mpondwe
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- DR Congo's Joseph Kabila appoints his own personal 'Dmitry Medvedev' to stay in power
- Ebola outbreak in DR Congo worsens
****
**** DR Congo's Joseph Kabila appoints his own personal 'Dmitry Medvedev' to stay in power
****
Women walk past a campaign poster of Joseph Kabila’s chosen successor as president of DRC, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, in Kinshasa on Dec 18 (AFP)
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is scheduled to hold a
presidential election on Sunday, and this time, Joseph Kabila isn't a
candidate. That's because he's already been president for two 5-year
terms, and the constitution he can't run again.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had the same problem in 2008. After
serving two consecutive terms as president, Putin was no longer
constitutionally allowed to run for president again in 2008. So Putin
arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to win the election for president in
2008, so that Medvedev would appoint Putin as prime minister. In
2012, Putin admitted that the whole thing was a scam in order to keep
himself in power, and that Medvedev was just a puppet. He ran for
president again in 2012 and won, and then appointed Medvedev as prime
minister.
Joseph Kabila became president in 2001 after his father, Laurent
Kabila, was assassinated. He ran for reelection in 2006, and did the
same in 2011. When his mandate ran out in December, 2016, he refused
to step down. Instead, he pulled a breathtaking stunt by doing
everything possible to prevent new elections from taking place, and
then claimed that he couldn't step down because there hadn't been any
elections to select a president to replace him.
The country was close to civil war, but the Catholic Church intervened
and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held in December of 2017
to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila would really step
down. However, the agreement was a farce: It was signed by members of
Kabila's government, but it wasn't even signed by Kabila himself.
Kabila pulled the same stunt in December, 2017, by doing nothing to
prepare for an election, then said he couldn't step down, because
there hadn't been any elections.
So this time there's apparently going to be an election, but Kabila
has pulled a different stunt. He's arranged for his own puppet,
Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister, to run for
president. Shadary was responsible for a violent, deadly crackdown on
anti-Kabila protests in 2017, and so he's under sanctions by the
European Union.
Corruption in DRC is rampant. Kabila and his family own, either
partially or wholly, more than 80 companies and businesses
in the country and abroad. He and his
children own more than 71,000 hectares (175,444 acres) of farmland.
His family owns diamond mines, a part of the country's largest mobile
phone network, companies that mine mineral deposits, gold and
limestone, a luxury hotel, stakes in an airline, a share of the
country's banks, and a fast-food franchise. With tentacles reaching
into so many businesses, it's not surprising that Kabila is willing to
use any method -- massacres, atrocities, jailings, torture -- to stay
in power.
Few people doubt Kabila's plan -- that Shadary become president for a
term, so that Kabila can run again after Shadary's term ends, acting
as Kabila's puppet in the same way that Medvedev served as Putin's
puppet.
Shadary may lose the election. He has no charisma, and he has no
experience in politics. He's a nobody. However, he's expected to win
anyway because there are two major candidates running against him, and
over a dozen minor candidates, and they're expected to split the
opposition vote, giving Shadary (and Kabila) the victory.
Kabila has banned election rallies by the opposition. Al Jazeera and Council on Foreign Relations and Guardian (London)
Related Articles
- Congo's Kabila and Burundi's Nkurunziza use violence and corruption to stay in power (25-Apr-2018)
- DR Congo boycotts its own international humanitarian conference for DR Congo (14-Apr-2018)
- DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
- Russia's Putin confirms that he'll appoint Medvedev to be prime minister (16-Dec-2011)
****
**** Ebola outbreak in DR Congo worsens
****
Officials in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have now reported 549
total Ebola cases and 326 deaths. Eighty-two suspected cases are
under investigation.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), "The outbreak is
intensifying in Butembo and Katwa, and new clusters are emerging
elsewhere. Over the last 21 days (25 November to 16 December 2018),
120 confirmed and probable cases were reported from 14 health zones,
the majority of which were reported from the major urban centres and
towns in Katwa (27), Beni (27), Butembo (17), Komanda (16) and
Mabalako (12)."
The situation in North Kivu province is the worst possible scenario.
There is a major ethnic war in progress, and Ebola is now spreading in
the densely populated city of Beni, which became the epicenter of the
pandemic. However, the number of cases in Beni seems to have peaked,
while the disease has spread to the south and Butembo may be the new
epicenter.
The entire region is a war zone, and over one million people have been
driven from their homes by armed rebel groups, the Allied Democratic
Forces (ADF), fighting government troops allied with Joseph Kabila.
The fighting is preventing doctors and experts from reaching infected
people, in order to educate the population and do contact tracing.
Without contact tracing, there is no way to stop or slow the spread of
the disease.
The Ebola outbreak has been growing, but so far it's been confined to
DRC. North Kivu is on the border with Uganda, and many people cross
the border between Uganda and DRC each day. It's feared that Ebola
will cross the border with the people, but that hasn't happened yet.
According to one resident of the village of Mpondwe in Uganda, just
across a bridge from the village of Lhubiriha: "I'm scared. Ebola
hasn't reached our village but I hear it's coming." AFP and Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and AP and CNN
Related Articles:
- Ebola in DR Congo spreads southward to large cities (11-Dec-2018)
- World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
- In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Joseph Kabila, Laurent Kabila, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev,
Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, North Kivu,
Beni, Butembo, Allied Democratic Forces, ADF,
Lhubiriha, Uganda, Mpondwe
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
