Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

I had an approval poll for only one state  (Massachusetts)  after the 2018 election (no surprise -- Massachusetts voters despise him, but what could you expect of the state which had been the first of the Colonies to turn against George III). I now have seven more. The real surprise is Alaska,
a state that has gone for a Democratic nominee for President only once in its 60-year history (Alaska turns 60 as a state this year).

Alaska is tough to poll because despite its small population it has sharp regional and ethnic divides.  The large sample size for a state with only three electoral votes.  Except for Texas, no US state has more regional diversity.

Of these seven states, five voted for Trump in 2016,  and the two that didn't (Colorado and Maine project as double-digit losses for Trump in 2020 because disapproval is over 55%; besides, a favorability poll in Colorado showed that only 36% of Colorado voters want Trump re-elected). Trump would have to be as effective a campaigner as Obama in 2020 to hold onto any state in which his disapproval is now at 50% or higher, and I don't see that. Bad polling numbers for Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina are nothing new.

Of the four states that look like potential swing states in 2020, how I see them lining up in 2020 with others:

(one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- Trump loses if he loses all three) 272
Iowa 278
Nevada 284
Arizona 295
North Carolina 310
Second Congressional District of Nebraska (NE-02) 311
Second Congressional District of Maine (ME-02) 312
Florida 341
Ohio 359
Georgia 375
Texas 413

Until I see something else, the Alaska poll could be an outlier. Even if it is not an outlier, maybe such states as Indiana, Kansas, and Montana go D before Alaska. On the other hand, the incumbent Senator from Alaska up for re-election has a low approval number, and that may be far more important in 2020 than three electoral votes.

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

How these states 'fall' for Democrats, except for Maine (two districts that cast individual electoral votes and get very different results), and Alaska, for which I have very little polling data



Trump approval:



With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white) 1
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 12
under 40%  37

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% but under 50% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher. 50% disapproval or higher indicates severe danger of that state not going for the President in the next election.


42 more states, and 468 electoral votes to go!