Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[David Horn]

(02-11-2019, 09:12 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania is a good bet for the swing state. Whether the Democrats nominate a loser or not, will be the critical factor, of course. A good candidate like McAuliffe or Landrieu, who also have some advantage in being from the South, would probably win North Carolina and Florida, plus Virginia of course, and probably win the 3 Trump Rust Belt swing states comfortably, and take Ohio, Iowa and the western swing states as well. But someone like Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Gabbard, O'Rourke or Gillibrand would likely allow Trump to take his southern base and get one of those 2 critical swing Rust Belt states too, which is all he would need since that would likely mean he gets Ohio, Iowa and AZ again too. Brown, Biden or Sanders? It's a crap shoot, but at least their name recognition and having good ability to stand up to him, and with their Rust Belt appeal, they might be able to squeeze through.

I have to disagree with much of this.  The blue collar voters in most states have similar hot buttons, and both Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown have excellent track records appealing to them in states that have been problematic for Democrats for quite a while.  Both have non-elite backgrounds and come across as calm and friendly  and very pro-people.  Of the two, Klobuchar is by far the better speaker; she may be the woman to break through.

The other woman with real potential is Kamala Harris, if she can get her understanding of economics up to her level on criminal justice.  Of the entire batch, she's the best in front of an audience, and that counts for a lot.  Of the remaining women, Warren missed her shot 4 years ago, Gabbard is wacky and Gillibrand is too Hillary-like.

The rest of the men are simply unlikely to break through, and I include Beto O'Rourke here.  His time hasn't arrived yet, though he may be the VP candidate for the Dems.  Both Landrieu and McAuliffe are it in for appointments.  I doubt either sees himself winning in this particular race … barring something bizarre like we have in Virginia right now.